I haven't seen much consensus as to who the best running back in the draft is. Trey Benson and Jaylen Wright are frequently mentioned. Blake Corum has his fans. Based on what I've seen, Jonathon Brooks is intriguing (and who doesn't want yet another spelling of the name Jonathan in the NFL).
Stuck behind both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson previously, Brooks had a breakout season for Texas last year, running for 1,139 yards and also catching 25 passes in 11 games, with 11 touchdowns. He runs with a mean streak, initiating contact and breaking tackles. At 6-0 and 216 pounds, he's bigger than some of the other backs getting attention in this class.
Brooks isn't getting a lot of talk as the first running back drafted, but I like his tape more than the other backs I've looked closely at. What hurts him is that he tore his ACL in November, a late enough injury that you wonder how much he'll even play as a rookie. Not a guy who should be on the radar in redraft leagues, probably, no matter where he gets drafted.
But in dynasty league rookie drafts, you can downplay those concerns, and I'll be doing so. Plenty of quality running backs didn't do much in their first seasons for one year or another, then went on to have strong second seasons (and more).
I took a look at all running backs drafted in the first three rounds since 2000, who had under 50 carries (for one reason or another) in their rookie seasons. How did those backs fare in Year 2?
I came up with 44 previous running backs, including one 2023 guy (Kendre Miller). Some of those guys missed their entire rookie seasons due to injury (Willis McGahee, Travis Etienne), while some were just stuck behind quality starters (James Conner, Brian Westbrook). All had 0-49 rushing attempts in their first seasons. A decent number of them came back and churned out good numbers in a year later.
Table shows those 44 backs, with the round they were drafted, the number of rushing attempts in Year 1, and their production (including PPR ranking) in Year 2. Table sorted by that ranking. About a quarter of them (10) put up top-30 production in their second seasons. Six more at least ranked in the top 40. Several others went on to have some success down the road (Deshaun Foster, LaMont Jordan and a couple of Patriots: Shane Vereen and Damien Harris).
| LIGHTLY USED ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, YEAR 2 (2000-PRESENT) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Att(1st) | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Rk |
| 2017 | 3 | James Conner, Pitt. | 32 | 973 | 497 | 1470 | 13 | 6 |
| 2001 | 1 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 16 | 1388 | 352 | 1740 | 16 | 8 |
| 2003 | 1 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 0 | 1128 | 169 | 1297 | 13 | 14 |
| 2008 | 1 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 19 | 1108 | 261 | 1369 | 8 | 17 |
| 2021 | 1 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 0 | 1125 | 316 | 1441 | 5 | 17 |
| 2011 | 2 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | 0 | 798 | 214 | 1012 | 9 | 18 |
| 2002 | 3 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 46 | 613 | 332 | 945 | 13 | 20 |
| 2020 | 2 | A.J. Dillon, G.B. | 46 | 803 | 313 | 1116 | 7 | 23 |
| 2018 | 2 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 23 | 724 | 309 | 1033 | 6 | 25 |
| 2003 | 1 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 20 | 581 | 278 | 859 | 11 | 27 |
| 2010 | 2 | Ben Tate, Hou. | 0 | 942 | 98 | 1040 | 4 | 32 |
| 2016 | 3 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 33 | 644 | 239 | 883 | 4 | 33 |
| 2015 | 3 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 3 | 457 | 348 | 805 | 3 | 33 |
| 2004 | 1 | Chris Perry, Cin. | 2 | 279 | 328 | 607 | 2 | 34 |
| 2019 | 3 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 39 | 624 | 159 | 783 | 6 | 36 |
| 2000 | 1 | Trung Canidate, St.L. | 3 | 441 | 154 | 595 | 6 | 39 |
| 2002 | 2 | DeShaun Foster, Car. | 0 | 429 | 207 | 636 | 2 | 42 |
| 2008 | 1 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 30 | 685 | 119 | 804 | 3 | 43 |
| 2005 | 3 | Vernand Morency, Hou. | 46 | 434 | 118 | 552 | 2 | 50 |
| 2001 | 2 | LaMont Jordan, NYJ | 39 | 316 | 160 | 476 | 3 | 51 |
| 2011 | 3 | Alex Green, G.B. | 3 | 464 | 125 | 589 | 0 | 53 |
| 2019 | 3 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 4 | 691 | 52 | 743 | 2 | 53 |
| 2011 | 2 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 15 | 251 | 149 | 400 | 4 | 58 |
| 2018 | 2 | Derrius Guice, Wash. | 0 | 245 | 79 | 324 | 3 | 69 |
| 2010 | 2 | Montario Hardesty, Clev. | 0 | 266 | 122 | 388 | 0 | 74 |
| 2003 | 3 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 40 | 126 | 68 | 194 | 1 | 85 |
| 2002 | 2 | Maurice Morris, Sea. | 32 | 239 | 32 | 271 | 1 | 86 |
| 2020 | 3 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 26 | 180 | 26 | 206 | 2 | 90 |
| 2011 | 2 | Ryan Williams, Ariz. | 0 | 164 | 44 | 208 | 0 | 101 |
| 2016 | 3 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 30 | 23 | 87 | 110 | 0 | 106 |
| 2012 | 2 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 10 | 21 | 78 | 99 | 0 | 108 |
| 2013 | 2 | Christine Michael, Sea. | 18 | 175 | 12 | 187 | 0 | 110 |
| 2007 | 3 | Lorenzo Booker, Mia. | 28 | 53 | 11 | 64 | 0 | 119 |
| 2012 | 2 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 27 | 59 | 16 | 75 | 0 | 124 |
| 2006 | 3 | Brian Calhoun, Det. | 7 | 35 | 35 | 70 | 0 | 125 |
| 2022 | 3 | Tyrion Davis-Price, S.F. | 34 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 137 |
| 2007 | 3 | Garrett Wolfe, Chi. | 31 | 69 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 141 |
| 2003 | 3 | B.J. Askew, NYJ | 2 | 23 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 146 |
| 2020 | 3 | Darrynton Evans, Tenn. | 14 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 147 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Sermon, S.F. | 41 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 149 |
| 2007 | 2 | Chris Henry, Tenn. | 31 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 167 |
| 2007 | 2 | Kenny Irons, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
| 2005 | 3 | Maurice Clarett, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
| 2023 | 3 | Kendre Miller, N.O. | 41 | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
Most of the first-rounders, like McGahee and Etienne, went on to do good things. Brooks won't be selected in the first round. But most of the guys who washed out were third rounders, and I think Brooks has a chance to be drafted in the second. (A chance; I'm not predicting it.)
Regardless, he's a guy I'll be interested in in my rookie draft, especially if he does gain enough interest to be selected in the second round. Even if expectations should be modest in his rookie season.
--Andy Richardson