Marvin Harrison might be the first non-quarterback drafted, and two other wide receivers could be selected in the top 10. But if form holds, there will also be a couple of notable receivers who are selected in the later rounds.
Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua, for example, all put up huge numbers last year. They were selected in the third, fourth and fifth round. Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen are catch machines who went in the third.
If we set aside the franchise guys who’ll go in the first round, and also disregard the second round, where tons of good receives are chosen, there are still quality players left.
Makes some sense, therefore, to poke around in this area. Picking through the numbers, I see 27 wide receivers in the 32-team era who weren’t selected in the first or second round but nonetheless had at least one top-20 season (using PPR scoring) in their first three years. (In the chart below, you’re seeing just the best early-career season for each guy – I didn’t want to get into listing guys two and three times.)
In the last 10 drafts, there have been 15 of these guys. My calculator indicates that works out to an average of about 1.5 per year. With this being a deep draft for wide receivers, I think that means we’re probably looking at two hits in the later rounds.
| LESS-HERALDED RECEIVERS WHO HIT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2023 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 4 | 119 | 1,515 | 10 | 332.9 | 3 |
| 2023 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 5 | 105 | 1,486 | 6 | 298.5 | 4 |
| 2023 | Nico Collins, Hou. | 3 | 80 | 1,297 | 8 | 260.4 | 12 |
| 2021 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 3 | 107 | 1,161 | 8 | 278.4 | 8 |
| 2021 | Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 5 | 103 | 1,038 | 9 | 261.1 | 10 |
| 2020 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 3 | 87 | 1,118 | 4 | 225.8 | 20 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 3 | 86 | 1,333 | 9 | 276.1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 3 | 94 | 1,161 | 10 | 270.5 | 5 |
| 2019 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | 3 | 65 | 1,190 | 11 | 250.0 | 9 |
| 2018 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 5 | 87 | 1,479 | 14 | 334.0 | 2 |
| 2017 | Robby Anderson, NYJ | FA | 63 | 941 | 7 | 200.0 | 18 |
| 2017 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 5 | 64 | 849 | 8 | 198.2 | 19 |
| 2016 | Tyrell Williams, S.D. | FA | 69 | 1,059 | 7 | 216.9 | 19 |
| 2015 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | FA | 64 | 1,031 | 10 | 227.1 | 19 |
| 2014 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 3 | 82 | 1,345 | 7 | 260.5 | 11 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 3 | 71 | 1,046 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
| 2012 | Eric Decker, Den. | 3 | 85 | 1,064 | 13 | 269.4 | 9 |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | FA | 82 | 1,536 | 9 | 289.9 | 3 |
| 2011 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 3 | 72 | 1,193 | 8 | 245.0 | 9 |
| 2010 | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | 7 | 82 | 1,073 | 10 | 249.3 | 10 |
| 2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 4 | 65 | 964 | 11 | 227.4 | 16 |
| 2008 | Brandon Marshall, Den. | 4 | 104 | 1,265 | 6 | 266.1 | 5 |
| 2007 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 7 | 98 | 1,202 | 11 | 284.2 | 8 |
| 2006 | Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ | 4 | 82 | 961 | 6 | 216.6 | 19 |
| 2004 | Nate Burleson, Min. | 3 | 68 | 1,006 | 10 | 235.5 | 17 |
| 2003 | Steve Smith, Car. | 3 | 88 | 1,110 | 8 | 251.2 | 10 |
| 2002 | Laveranues Coles, NYJ | 3 | 89 | 1,264 | 5 | 251.3 | 12 |
With this list in front of us, we can then look for trends, perhaps improving our chances of plucking an undervalued star out of this year’s draft.
In the list above, I see Tyreek Hill going in the fifth round. He fell because of a domestic violence incident that caused him to get kicked off the Oklahoma State team. Going after a player with off-field problems can be a good way to go (and easier for our purposes than for NFL teams, who haven’t to factor in how fans will react and perhaps how the player will fit in the lockerroom).
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are all on the slow side. I tend to be on the lookout for that kind of player – productive in college but not running as fast as desired. That helped me put a later-round grade on St. Brown a few years ago (he had the situational bonus of going to a team without much at the position). I thought David Bell (who caught a ton of balls at Purdue) might be one of these guys, but he hasn’t done much in his first two years with the Browns.
Diontae Johnson, Stefon Diggs and Chris Godwin. They weren’t seen as quite big enough or athletic enough to rank among the best receivers when they were coming out.
Nico Collins was a traits guy. He's big and strong but opted out of his final season at Michigan (the COVID year).
—Ian Allan