Picking through the numbers from last year, the Saints look better than I remembered them. After a slow start, they got that offense rolling pretty good.
The beginning of the season was underwhelming. It included 16-15 and 20-17 wins over the Titans and Panthers and 17-18 and 9-26 losses against the Packers and Bucs. But for the duration, they were on more often than off.
New Orleans averaged 26.2 points in its final 13 games. Only five teams averaged more, and all were in the playoffs. The Saints finished up 9-8, losing a tiebreaker to Tampa Bay, but they beat that team by 10 in Week 17 of the season.
| SCORING, FINAL 13 G | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | W-L | Avg |
| Dallas | 9-4 | 29.6 |
| Baltimore | 10-3 | 29.5 |
| San Francisco | 8-5 | 28.2 |
| Detroit | 9-4 | 27.3 |
| Miami | 8-5 | 26.6 |
| New Orleans | 7-6 | 26.2 |
| Cleveland | 9-4 | 24.6 |
| Cincinnati | 8-5 | 24.4 |
| Philadelphia | 7-6 | 24.2 |
| Buffalo | 8-5 | 24.0 |
| LA Rams | 8-5 | 23.5 |
| Indianapolis | 7-6 | 23.0 |
| Jacksonville | 7-6 | 22.8 |
| Chicago | 7-6 | 21.9 |
| Green Bay | 7-6 | 21.8 |
| Houston | 8-5 | 21.6 |
| Kansas City | 8-5 | 20.8 |
| Las Vegas | 7-6 | 20.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 6-7 | 20.3 |
| Atlanta | 5-8 | 19.9 |
| Denver | 7-6 | 19.8 |
| Minnesota | 6-7 | 19.5 |
| Seattle | 6-7 | 19.5 |
| Arizona | 3-10 | 18.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 8-5 | 18.6 |
| Washington | 2-11 | 18.5 |
| LA Chargers | 3-10 | 18.2 |
| Tennessee | 4-9 | 17.9 |
| NY Giants | 5-8 | 16.9 |
| NY Jets | 6-7 | 15.8 |
| New England | 3-10 | 13.9 |
| Carolina | 2-11 | 13.0 |
The yardage numbers look similar. Ignoring the first four games of the season, only eight offenses averaged more yards. In the chart below, note that I’m using gross rather than net yards (for whatever reason, quarterbacks in fantasy don’t tend to be penalized for losing yards on sacks, even though those plays and yards tend to be hugely important.)
| YARDS GAINED, FINAL 13 GAMES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Run | Pass | Total |
| Detroit | 135.8 | 275.2 | 410.9 |
| San Francisco | 136.7 | 273.7 | 410.4 |
| Baltimore | 158.2 | 237.5 | 395.6 |
| Dallas | 104.2 | 287.1 | 391.3 |
| Miami | 123.2 | 255.8 | 378.9 |
| Buffalo | 127.7 | 250.6 | 378.3 |
| Green Bay | 123.6 | 254.5 | 378.2 |
| Cincinnati | 95.9 | 271.5 | 367.4 |
| New Orleans | 107.1 | 256.9 | 364.0 |
| Minnesota | 93.8 | 268.2 | 361.9 |
| LA Rams | 125.3 | 236.2 | 361.5 |
| Atlanta | 126.7 | 233.2 | 359.8 |
| Jacksonville | 95.8 | 263.5 | 359.4 |
| Houston | 99.8 | 258.5 | 358.3 |
| Cleveland | 110.9 | 247.1 | 358.0 |
| Philadelphia | 117.6 | 239.1 | 356.7 |
| Indianapolis | 122.8 | 231.2 | 353.9 |
| Kansas City | 95.1 | 257.4 | 352.5 |
| Chicago | 147.9 | 196.9 | 344.8 |
| Arizona | 137.8 | 201.2 | 339.0 |
| Seattle | 88.2 | 250.6 | 338.8 |
| Washington | 89.7 | 247.2 | 336.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 89.3 | 243.2 | 332.5 |
| LA Chargers | 89.5 | 242.8 | 332.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 130.4 | 200.0 | 330.4 |
| Tennessee | 107.8 | 209.4 | 317.2 |
| NY Giants | 115.2 | 198.5 | 313.7 |
| Las Vegas | 98.5 | 209.2 | 307.7 |
| Denver | 109.8 | 196.3 | 306.2 |
| NY Jets | 97.3 | 204.7 | 302.0 |
| Carolina | 106.8 | 183.2 | 289.9 |
| New England | 96.4 | 187.5 | 283.8 |
I’m not promising the Saints will have a top-10 offense. I’ve never been a big Derek Carr fan, and the team’s salary cap issues have prevented them from adding much. Their biggest free agent signing (Chase Young) announced the day after signing his contract that he’s undergoing a neck surgery that will sideline him into camp. Their most expensive offensive addition has been receiver Cedrick Wilson, at $5.8 million for two years. Their franchise right tackle, Ryan Ramczyk, has a knee condition that has his career in jeopardy.
By I will concede that Saints last year were way better than I remembered them. I expect I’ll be projecting them to finish with middle-of-the-pack numbers.
—Ian Allan