I like what Buffalo did in the draft. They double-traded down in the first round of the draft, picking up some extra picks, and they still got the receiver they wanted. Now they just have to develop him and hope he pans out.
I had no problem with them trading with Kansas City. Xavier Worthy ran a 4.21 at the combine, but he’s awfully small. Buffalo had no interest in him, so why not trade down, getting a third-round pick off a rival? And then they traded down against with Carolina.
They ended up with Keon Coleman. He’s a bigger receiver who made a lot of contested catches at Florida State (like the one in the photo). The general eyeball test is that he’s almost as big as Gabriel Davis, with much better hands.
But Coleman isn’t fast; he ran 4.61 at the combine. And bigger, slower receivers make me nervous. It’s harder to make contested catches at the pro level, and I’ve seen plenty of these guys wash out. N’Keal Harry and Laquon Treadwell fit this profile – big receivers who dominated at the college level but weren’t as effective at the pro level. Laviska Shenault, Devin Funchess.
But looking at a ballparked list, the miss rate isn’t as bad as I feared. Below see an estimated list of larger, slower receivers who have been picked in the first or second round in the 32-team era. I’m not listing the 40 times because some guys run at the combine, some do not, and some of the times just don’t make sense (N’Keal Harry, for example, ran 4.53 at the combine but just isn’t that fast).
I’ve got 26 players listed and only 10 of them never had a top-30 season (using PPR scoring). In the chart, I awarded a black dot each time a player finished with top-30 numbers (for guys with more than 4, their total appears after their name).
The first-year hit rate isn’t great, but it’s not awful either. Five of the 26 finished with top-20 numbers in their first year, and another 3 made the top 30.
I can’t guarantee Coleman will be good from the git-go, but I wouldn’t be opposed to rolling the dice on him in the second half of a fantasy draft. (I think I will have him slotted as the second Buffalo receiver – below Khalil Shakir and ahead of Curtis Samuel). I like Coleman better than either of the receivers taken in Buffalo's vacated first-round spots.
| BIGGER, SLOWER RECEIVERS GOING EARLY | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Ht | Wt | Rookie Yr | PPR | Rk |
| 2003 | •••• A.Boldin, Ari. (10) | 54 | 6.01 | 220 | 101-1377-8 | 290.7 | 3 |
| 2016 | •••• Michael Thomas, N.O. | 47 | 6.03 | 212 | 92-1137-9 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2004 | • Michael Clayton, T.B. | 15 | 6.03 | 209 | 80-1193-7 | 244.3 | 14 |
| 2014 | •• Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 28 | 6.05 | 240 | 73-1008-9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2017 | •••• J.Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 62 | 6.02 | 220 | 58-917-7 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2007 | •••• Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 23 | 6.02 | 221 | 70-995-5 | 199.5 | 22 |
| 2022 | • Drake London, Atl. | 8 | 6.04 | 219 | 72-866-4 | 184.6 | 28 |
| 2012 | • Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 5 | 6.01 | 210 | 64-865-5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2009 | •• Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 29 | 6.01 | 212 | 47-790-6 | 162.8 | 33 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 42 | 6.01 | 227 | 58-600-5 | 157.1 | 46 |
| 2011 | Greg Little, Cle. | 59 | 6.02 | 220 | 61-709-2 | 145.4 | 47 |
| 2013 | •••• De. Hopkins, Hou. (8) | 27 | 6.01 | 218 | 52-802-2 | 144.2 | 49 |
| 2018 | • Courtland Sutton, Den. | 40 | 6.03 | 218 | 42-704-4 | 136.3 | 50 |
| 2009 | •••• M.Crabtree, S.F. (5) | 10 | 6.01 | 215 | 48-625-2 | 122.5 | 60 |
| 2014 | •••• Allen Robinson, Jac. | 61 | 6.02 | 210 | 48-548-2 | 116.8 | 65 |
| 2015 | • Devin Funchess, Car. | 41 | 6.04 | 232 | 31-473-5 | 108.3 | 65 |
| 2022 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 18 | 6.02 | 225 | 33-444-1 | 94.1 | 78 |
| 2020 | ••• Michael Pittman, Ind. | 34 | 6.04 | 223 | 40-503-1 | 98.9 | 80 |
| 2003 | Bryant Johnson, Ari. | 17 | 6.02 | 214 | 35-438-1 | 84.8 | 82 |
| 2004 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 9 | 6.04 | 229 | 27-268-1 | 63.8 | 93 |
| 2010 | •••• De. Thomas, Den. (6) | 22 | 6.03 | 230 | 22-283-2 | 62.4 | 95 |
| 2019 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 32 | 6.02 | 228 | 12-105-2 | 39.4 | 124 |
| 2004 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 29 | 6.04 | 218 | 7-119-0 | 19.1 | 136 |
| 2007 | Dwayne Jarrett, Car. | 45 | 6.04 | 219 | 6-73-0 | 14.4 | 148 |
| 2008 | Malcolm Kelly, Was. | 51 | 6.04 | 218 | 3-18-0 | 4.8 | 163 |
| 2016 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 23 | 6.02 | 210 | 1-15-0 | 2.5 | 188 |
| 2024 | Keon Coleman, Buff. | 33 | 6.03 | 213 | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan