One of the interesting Day 3 picks (to me anyway) was Notre Dame running back Audric Estime. He's a 5-foot-11, 221-pound back who's got a pretty cool set of highlights, bursting through the line of scrimmage or flattening defenders. There's some potential for him in Denver.
Estime was just a fifth-round pick, in part because he's a slower back -- 4.71 at the combine. Sean Payton said the team views him as a first- and second-down runner, which will make him a long shot to get on the field much as a rookie, with Denver currently having Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin at the position. Williams will be the main early-down runner. At least to start.
But slow or not, Estime was very effective for Notre Dame last year. He rushed for 1,341 yards, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, and was very effective at ending drives with touchdowns. He scored 18 on the ground last year, while Denver as a team scored only 8 -- just 1 rushing touchdown in their first 10 games. Williams was coming off a torn ACL, but he's been in the league three seasons and never been particularly effective around the goal line.
Over the past three years, 33 running backs have carried the ball at least 20 times inside the 5-yard line. It's a short list of players who have punched a lower percentage of those opportunities into the end zone than Williams. He's built similarly to Estime, but I wonder if Denver won't give the rookie a shot on some of those chances this season. Javonte's in a contract year and won't necessarily return, especially if Estime is effective with his chances this season.
| RUNNING BACKS INSIDE THE 5, 2021-2023 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | 2Pt | EZ% |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 26 | 41 | 1.58 | 14 | 1 | 57.7% |
| Damien Harris, Buff. | 23 | 42 | 1.83 | 13 | 0 | 56.5% |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 22 | 30 | 1.36 | 11 | 1 | 54.5% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 41 | 49 | 1.20 | 21 | 1 | 53.7% |
| Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 25 | 28 | 1.12 | 13 | 0 | 52.0% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 27 | 43 | 1.59 | 13 | 1 | 51.9% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, N.E. | 41 | 46 | 1.12 | 18 | 3 | 51.2% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 45 | 64 | 1.42 | 20 | 2 | 48.9% |
| David Montgomery, Det. | 37 | 52 | 1.41 | 17 | 1 | 48.6% |
| James Conner, Ari. | 40 | 43 | 1.08 | 19 | 0 | 47.5% |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 36 | 32 | .89 | 17 | 0 | 47.2% |
| Jamaal Williams, N.O. | 41 | 44 | 1.07 | 18 | 1 | 46.3% |
| Latavius Murray, Buff. | 26 | 34 | 1.31 | 11 | 1 | 46.2% |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 24 | 30 | 1.25 | 10 | 1 | 45.8% |
| Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 20 | 18 | .90 | 9 | 0 | 45.0% |
| D'Onta Foreman, Chi. | 24 | 44 | 1.83 | 9 | 1 | 41.7% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 51 | 64 | 1.25 | 21 | 0 | 41.2% |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | 27 | 23 | .85 | 8 | 3 | 40.7% |
| Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 35 | 28 | .80 | 14 | 0 | 40.0% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 21 | 13 | .62 | 8 | 0 | 38.1% |
| Antonio Gibson, Was. | 29 | 25 | .86 | 10 | 1 | 37.9% |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 35 | 43 | 1.23 | 13 | 0 | 37.1% |
| Devin Singletary, Hou. | 27 | 29 | 1.07 | 10 | 0 | 37.0% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 55 | 60 | 1.09 | 20 | 0 | 36.4% |
| D'Andre Swift, Phil. | 25 | 23 | .92 | 8 | 1 | 36.0% |
| Leonard Fournette, Buff. | 26 | 35 | 1.35 | 9 | 0 | 34.6% |
| AJ Dillon, G.B. | 31 | 29 | .94 | 10 | 0 | 32.3% |
| Javonte Williams, Den. | 22 | 19 | .86 | 6 | 1 | 31.8% |
| Miles Sanders, Car. | 26 | 31 | 1.19 | 8 | 0 | 30.8% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 30 | 23 | .77 | 7 | 2 | 30.0% |
| Dalvin Cook, NYJ | 35 | 35 | 1.00 | 9 | 1 | 28.6% |
| Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 25 | 6 | .24 | 7 | 0 | 28.0% |
| Tony Pollard, Dall. | 27 | 29 | 1.07 | 6 | 1 | 25.9% |
Sean Payton has had some success with bigger backs in the past: Tim Hightower, Latavius Murray, Chris Ivory were all effective as part of tandems for him in New Orleans. I'm not confident Estime will have a huge role this year, but he's somebody I'll be watching in the preseason. And I'm going to tread carefully with drafting Williams.
--Andy Richardson