Who’s in on Brock Bowers? He’s the latest of the great tight ends, but the immediate rate on those players hasn’t been all that good.
Vernon Davis, T.J. Hockenson and Eric Ebron, for example, all came into the league as Bowers-type talented, and none were able to finish with top-25 numbers in their first season. Those three tight ends were all picked even earlier than Bowers.
Kyle Pitts went for 1,026 yards, but with only one touchdown. He finished 6th among tight ends, but arguably was a disappointment (considering how early he was picked). Jeremy Shockey back in 2002 put together a rookie season similar to Pitts’, catching 74 passes, but with only 2 TDs.
Below are the 24 tight ends selected with first-round picks in the 32-team era. Only three finished with top-10 numbers in their first year. I’ve got those guys tagged with double dots – Pitts, Shockey and Evan Engram. Another five tight ends at least finished in the teens (using PPR scoring), and I’ve got one dot on those guys. They were all at least worth roster spots in typical fantasy leagues.
Note that while the immediate success rate for these guys hasn’t been great, they’ve done better long term. All but three of the below players had at least one top-10 season during their career. (O.J. Howard peaked at 15th, but he blew out his knee; Jerramy Stevens topped out at 12th, while Dalton Kincaid is just starting his career.)
| FIRST-ROUND TIGHT ENDS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | •• Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 4 | 68 | 1,026 | 15.1 | 1 | 176.6 | 6 |
| 2004 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 6 | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 | 10.0 | 79 |
| 2006 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 6 | 20 | 265 | 13.3 | 3 | 65.0 | 28 |
| 2019 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 8 | 32 | 367 | 11.5 | 2 | 80.7 | 31 |
| 2014 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 10 | 25 | 248 | 9.9 | 1 | 55.8 | 40 |
| 2024 | Brock Bowers, L.V. | 13 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2002 | •• Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 14 | 74 | 894 | 12.1 | 2 | 175.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 19 | 26 | 432 | 16.6 | 6 | 105.2 | 20 |
| 2009 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 20 | 30 | 346 | 11.5 | 2 | 76.6 | 27 |
| 2019 | • Noah Fant, Den. | 20 | 40 | 562 | 14.1 | 3 | 113.0 | 15 |
| 2002 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 21 | 15 | 150 | 10.0 | 1 | 36.0 | 43 |
| 2013 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 21 | 39 | 445 | 11.4 | 2 | 95.5 | 26 |
| 2010 | • Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 21 | 52 | 471 | 9.1 | 4 | 125.1 | 16 |
| 2017 | •• Evan Engram, NYG | 23 | 64 | 722 | 11.3 | 6 | 173.6 | 5 |
| 2003 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 24 | 29 | 340 | 11.7 | 1 | 69.0 | 24 |
| 2018 | Hayden Hurst, Balt. | 25 | 13 | 163 | 12.5 | 1 | 35.3 | 59 |
| 2023 | • Dalton Kincaid, Buff. | 25 | 73 | 673 | 9.2 | 2 | 152.3 | 11 |
| 2006 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 28 | 13 | 126 | 9.7 | 1 | 31.6 | 51 |
| 2002 | Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 28 | 26 | 252 | 9.7 | 3 | 69.2 | 24 |
| 2017 | David Njoku, Cle. | 29 | 32 | 386 | 12.1 | 4 | 94.7 | 24 |
| 2005 | • Heath Miller, Pitt. | 30 | 39 | 459 | 11.8 | 6 | 120.9 | 14 |
| 2008 | • Dustin Keller, NYJ | 30 | 48 | 535 | 11.2 | 3 | 119.5 | 14 |
| 2007 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 31 | 39 | 391 | 10.0 | 2 | 92.1 | 22 |
| 2004 | Benjamin Watson, N.E. | 32 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 3.6 | 93 |
Bowers is supposed to be the next big thing at the position, but my gut feel is that he’s probably more likely to finish outside the top 10 in his initial season. He’s going to a modest team that emphasized the run last year. He doesn’t seem like he’s going to be a target monster. With Las Vegas also having Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer.
Bowers looks like he might be the league’s best after-the-catch tight end, consistently breaking tackles after the ball is in his hands. He ran for 5 TDs at Georgia. But he’s on the small side for the position (6-foot-3, 243); he’s not a Gronk-type monster, where they’ll be lobbying him balls around the goal line.
I’m not sure where Bowers will be picked in typical drafts, but I think it will be a little higher than where I’ll be slotting him. Kincaid, as one example, is a similar style of player, but he’s on a better team and has been around for a year – Kincaid will be higher than Bowers on my board.
—Ian Allan