Eleven wide receivers were chosen in the first two rounds of the draft, and if form holds, a few of them will be putting up viable numbers as rookies. Teams are doing a better job of tapping into first-year pass catchers nowadays (perhaps because there’s more passing at the high school and college levels).
For ballpark purposes, I think we’ll see about four wide receivers ending up as key picks.
See the chart below. It shows rookie receivers who finished with top-30 numbers in their first season. Note that I played around with the numbers on this one. I’m not showing the season totals but instead the numbers for the final 10 games of each team for the last 10 years.
Looking at that time frame, 36 rookie receivers were playing at a top-30 level at the end of the season. Fifteen of those receivers were first-round picks, while 14 were chosen in the second round. The other seven were picked outside the second. (In the chart, I put a dot next to the names of receivers chosen in the second, and two dots next to those picked even later.)
There’s no question, it’s clear, that we’re going to have some notable first-year receivers. It will make sense to be throwing some draft picks at guys with decent potential to turn into these kind of players.
Marvin Harrison, I imagine, will lead the way. I’m not sure that he’s any better than the other receivers selected in the top 10, but he’s landed in a far more favorable situation (at least for this season). Harrison should be seeing a ton of targets. Malik Nabers is sadly joined at the hip to Daniel Jones. Odunze is playing alongside DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, which should limit his opportunities.
With where Nabers and Odunze have landed, I would guess that multiple wide receivers selected outside the first round will finish with better numbers (this year, anyway; if we’re getting into dynasty rankings, the decision making gets more complicated.) Of the top of my head, I would guess that Keon Coleman (Bills) and Ladd McConkey (Chargers) will finish with better combined stats than Nabers and Odunze.
| FINAL 10 GAMES FOR ROOKIE RECEIVERS (last 10 yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 12 | 81 | 1199 | 9 | 254.9 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Allen Robinson, Jac. | 61 | 46 | 814 | 8 | 175.4 | 7 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 7 | 43 | 715 | 10 | 174.5 | 5 |
| 2021 | •• Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 112 | 66 | 708 | 5 | 166.8 | 6 |
| 2015 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 20 | 49 | 694 | 8 | 166.4 | 8 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 22 | 57 | 837 | 4 | 164.7 | 4 |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 5 | 46 | 701 | 7 | 158.1 | 8 |
| 2016 | • Michael Thomas, N.O. | 47 | 50 | 637 | 6 | 149.7 | 7 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 10 | 55 | 789 | 2 | 145.9 | 12 |
| 2023 | •• Puka Nacua, LAR | 177 | 47 | 734 | 4 | 144.4 | 13 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 6 | 60 | 631 | 3 | 141.1 | 15 |
| 2023 | • Rashee Rice, K.C. | 55 | 53 | 633 | 4 | 140.3 | 16 |
| 2019 | • A.J. Brown, Ten. | 51 | 32 | 714 | 6 | 139.4 | 10 |
| 2014 | • Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 42 | 38 | 599 | 6 | 133.9 | 17 |
| 2017 | • JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 62 | 41 | 686 | 4 | 133.6 | 10 |
| 2014 | • Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 63 | 59 | 503 | 4 | 133.3 | 18 |
| 2022 | • Christian Watson, G.B. | 34 | 34 | 559 | 7 | 131.9 | 20 |
| 2019 | •• Darius Slayton, NYG | 171 | 34 | 523 | 7 | 128.3 | 19 |
| 2023 | • Jayden Reed, G.B. | 50 | 44 | 479 | 5 | 121.9 | 22 |
| 2019 | • DK Metcalf, Sea. | 64 | 38 | 511 | 5 | 119.1 | 23 |
| 2014 | •• Martavis Bryant, Pitt. | 118 | 24 | 509 | 7 | 116.9 | 26 |
| 2023 | Jordan Addison, Min. | 23 | 41 | 511 | 4 | 116.1 | 26 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 28 | 39 | 531 | 4 | 116.1 | 27 |
| 2017 | •• Keelan Cole, Jac. | FA | 34 | 637 | 3 | 115.7 | 18 |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 8 | 46 | 551 | 2 | 113.1 | 27 |
| 2020 | • Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 49 | 39 | 498 | 4 | 112.8 | 26 |
| 2019 | • Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 36 | 39 | 615 | 2 | 112.5 | 26 |
| 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 25 | 40 | 468 | 4 | 110.8 | 28 |
| 2019 | • James Washington, Pitt. | 60 | 34 | 574 | 3 | 109.4 | 29 |
| 2015 | •• Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 34 | 447 | 5 | 108.7 | 27 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 10 | 32 | 510 | 4 | 107.0 | 27 |
| 2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 11 | 40 | 547 | 2 | 106.7 | 30 |
| 2017 | •• Cooper Kupp, LAR | 69 | 39 | 553 | 2 | 106.3 | 25 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 26 | 37 | 429 | 4 | 103.9 | 25 |
| 2018 | • Curtis Samuel, Car. | 40 | 33 | 413 | 4 | 98.3 | 30 |
| 2017 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 20 | 38 | 402 | 3 | 96.2 | 30 |
Note, by the way, that I did not thoroughly polish these numbers; they don’t include 2-point conversions, and they don’t include rushing production. (I was working with the stat sorter at Pro-Football-Reference.) But they’ll work for our purposes.
—Ian Allan