There’s a tendency to get too excited about rookies. Especially at tight end. While some of these players selected in the second, third and fourth rounds will hit, a lot more of them won’t make much of an impact – especially in their first season.
Ben Sinnott, as today’s example. Washington selected him with the 53rd pick, and there’s some chance he’ll be starting as a rookie. But I’m not ready to say that Sinnott “likely” will start. They’ve got Zach Ertz, along with some other returning tight ends. Ertz has played with this offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) in the past.
In Arizona two years ago, recall, the Cardinals selected a tight end who’s better than Sinnott at about that point of the draft: Trey McBride. McBride didn’t play much until the final month of his rookie season. Kingsbury went with Ertz instead.
It remains to be determined, but I would think Ertz probably will be starting ahead of Sinnott in Week 1. (And perhaps a sneaky decent pick; Ertz averaged top-10 numbers with Kingsbury in Arizona.)
As supporting documentation, consider the chart below, showing first-year production for rookie tight ends. The chart includes no players selected in the first round, and it also includes no players selected in the first half of the second round. Expectations are higher for those kind of guys. (Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer, as recent examples.) I’m instead listing tight ends selected in the second half of the second round, along with those picked in the first half of the third round. That’s picks 49 thru 80 – what we’ll call prospect-type tight ends.
In the 32-team era, there have been 39 of these prospects. Only a third of them (13) in their first season finished as the most productive tight end on their own team. Those guys are tagged with black dots. Only five also finished with top-20 numbers (PPR scoring), and I’ve awarded an extra dot for that production.
Note that none of the 39 tight ends listed here posted top-12 numbers in their first season. (Travis Kelce went on to become maybe the best tight end ever, but he was one of five of these tight ends who didn’t catch any passes in his first year.)
If obtaining a top-20 tight end is your goal, the odds suggest you have about a 1 in 8 chance when selecting a player in this neighborhood of the drafts. There’s before factoring in other variables – the quality of the team, the style of the offense and the other players in his way. (It could be argued that Sinnott is in a favorable situation here, with Ertz being a 33-year-old at the very end of his career.)
But the odds aren’t great. Unless I see Sinnott doing something of note in the preseason, I won’t be drafting him onto any of my teams.
| PROSPECT TIGHT ENDS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2018 | • Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 49 | 33 | 334 | 4 | 90.4 | 20 |
| 2014 | • Jace Amaro, NYJ | 49 | 38 | 345 | 2 | 84.5 | 24 |
| 2019 | Irv Smith, Min. | 50 | 36 | 311 | 2 | 79.1 | 33 |
| 2019 | Drew Sample, Cin. | 52 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 8.0 | 92 |
| 2014 | Troy Niklas, Ari. | 52 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 6.8 | 93 |
| 2024 | Ben Sinnott, Was. | 53 | 14 | 126 | 0 | 26.6 | 55 |
| 2006 | Anthony Fasano, Dall. | 53 | 14 | 126 | 0 | 26.6 | 55 |
| 2021 | •• Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 55 | 60 | 497 | 7 | 153.7 | 13 |
| 2002 | •• Doug Jolley, Oak. | 55 | 32 | 409 | 2 | 84.9 | 18 |
| 2015 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 55 | 32 | 268 | 1 | 64.8 | 39 |
| 2022 | Trey McBride, Ari. | 55 | 29 | 265 | 1 | 61.5 | 40 |
| 2013 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 55 | 8 | 119 | 0 | 19.9 | 62 |
| 2023 | Luke Schoonmaker, Dall. | 58 | 8 | 65 | 2 | 26.5 | 67 |
| 2006 | • Tony Scheffler, Den. | 61 | 18 | 286 | 4 | 70.9 | 26 |
| 2003 | • L.J. Smith, Phil. | 61 | 27 | 321 | 1 | 65.1 | 28 |
| 2008 | Martellus Bennett, Dall. | 61 | 20 | 283 | 4 | 72.3 | 30 |
| 2023 | Brenton Strange, Jac. | 61 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14.5 | 79 |
| 2004 | Kris Wilson, K.C. | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2003 | Teyo Johnson, Oak. | 63 | 14 | 128 | 1 | 32.8 | 43 |
| 2013 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2012 | • Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 64 | 45 | 521 | 3 | 115.6 | 25 |
| 2009 | Richard Quinn, Den. | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2014 | C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou. | 65 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 12.8 | 80 |
| 2002 | • Matt Schobel, Cin. | 67 | 27 | 212 | 2 | 60.2 | 30 |
| 2015 | • Clive Walford, Oak. | 68 | 28 | 329 | 3 | 78.9 | 31 |
| 2004 | Ben Hartsock, Ind. | 68 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 7.3 | 87 |
| 2003 | •• Jason Witten, Dall. | 69 | 35 | 347 | 1 | 75.7 | 20 |
| 2011 | Rob Housler, Ari. | 69 | 12 | 133 | 0 | 25.3 | 55 |
| 2019 | Josh Oliver, Jac. | 69 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 4.5 | 99 |
| 2010 | Ed Dickson, Balt. | 70 | 11 | 152 | 1 | 32.2 | 53 |
| 2005 | •• Alex Smith, T.B. | 71 | 41 | 367 | 2 | 89.7 | 19 |
| 2006 | Leonard Pope, Ari. | 72 | 16 | 161 | 0 | 32.1 | 49 |
| 2022 | • Jelani Woods, Ind. | 73 | 25 | 312 | 3 | 74.2 | 35 |
| 2019 | Jace Sternberger, G.B. | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2008 | Brad Cottam, K.C. | 76 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 13.3 | 72 |
| 2003 | Mike Seidman, Car. | 76 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 8.5 | 77 |
| 2007 | Matt Spaeth, Pitt. | 77 | 5 | 34 | 3 | 26.4 | 55 |
| 2023 | • Tucker Kraft, G.B. | 78 | 31 | 355 | 2 | 78.5 | 29 |
| 2012 | Michael Egnew, Mia. | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2022 | • Greg Dulcich, Den. | 80 | 33 | 411 | 2 | 86.1 | 30 |
—Ian Allan