Saw a story yesterday that the Chargers remain high on last year's first-round wideout Quentin Johnston. He struggled as a rookie, of course, and a lot changed in the offseason that could help -- or hurt -- his chances. What will his second season bring?
Perhaps the most notable development is a new coaching staff, with Brandon Staley replaced by Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman seem likely to emphasize the run. But they'll certainly be passing the ball at times, and there have been some changes that might benefit Johnston.
Keenan Allen is in Chicago. Mike Williams is in New York. Joshua Palmer is Joshua Palmer; a serviceable player but not a star. The team added Ladd McConkey in the second round and Brenden Rice in the seventh (for those believing Jerry Rice's son is being underrated), but rookies sometimes need time to adjust to the pros. The idea of Johnston being one of the team's top 2 wideouts this year is hardly far-fetched.
I looked at the last 10 years of wide receivers selected in the first round who had minimal impact as rookies. I went with players who ranked outside the top 50 at the position in PPR leagues. Johnston was the only one of last year's first-round wideouts (the others: Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) who didn't rank that high last year.
The percentage of those players breaking out in Year 2 is pretty low. Twenty-one other first-rounders fit the profile. Of those players, only two -- Brandin Cooks and Corey Davis -- finished in top 30 at the position in PPR leagues. One who just missed, at least, was a former Charger (Mike Williams). But DeVante Parker was the only other top 50 guy.
Table is sorted by ranking in PPR leagues in Year 2 for those wideouts.
| FIRST-ROUND WRS OUTSIDE TOP 50 AS ROOKIES, YEAR 2 (2014-PRESENT) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player | No(1) | Rec(1) | TD(1) | Rk(1) | No(2) | Rec(2) | TD(2) | Rk(2) |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 53 | 550 | 4 | 56 | 84 | 1138 | 9 | 14 |
| 2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 34 | 375 | 0 | 85 | 65 | 891 | 4 | 29 |
| 2017 | Mike Williams, LAC | 11 | 95 | 0 | 139 | 43 | 664 | 11 | 33 |
| 2015 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 26 | 494 | 3 | 78 | 56 | 744 | 4 | 50 |
| 2022 | Jahan Dotson, Was. | 35 | 523 | 7 | 51 | 49 | 518 | 4 | 56 |
| 2016 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 2 | 66 | 0 | 170 | 35 | 502 | 6 | 57 |
| 2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | 3 | 61 | 28 | 423 | 7 | 61 |
| 2015 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 | 33 | 499 | 3 | 77 |
| 2015 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 1 | 110 | 33 | 528 | 2 | 79 |
| 2022 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 1 | 41 | 1 | 158 | 24 | 354 | 3 | 82 |
| 2020 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 26 | 452 | 2 | 89 | 24 | 469 | 2 | 86 |
| 2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 21 | 210 | 7 | 86 |
| 2015 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 1 | 101 | 36 | 365 | 2 | 87 |
| 2016 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 33 | 413 | 3 | 83 | 23 | 305 | 2 | 92 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 31 | 396 | 2 | 91 | 33 | 299 | 2 | 96 |
| 2019 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 12 | 105 | 2 | 124 | 33 | 309 | 2 | 98 |
| 2021 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 39 | 420 | 0 | 89 | 16 | 171 | 3 | 106 |
| 2021 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 46 | 515 | 1 | 70 | 15 | 285 | 2 | 111 |
| 2016 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 1 | 15 | 0 | 188 | 20 | 200 | 0 | 121 |
| 2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 | 19 | 187 | 0 | 123 |
| 2022 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 33 | 444 | 2 | 78 | 16 | 221 | 0 | 124 |
| 2023 | Quentin Johnston, LAC | 38 | 431 | 2 | 74 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
I don't think anyone should be giving up on Johnston. The Chargers aren't, and that makes sense. I recall a few plays last year where there was some potential (not many, but some). A pair of 5-catch games (Chicago and New England), a 91-yard performance against Denver. Justin Herbert is still a pretty good quarterback. It can happen.
But in drafts it's pretty sure you'll see McConkey and Palmer selected earlier. Johnston is a worthwhile late-round flier, but not a lot of cause for optimism with him. Guys of his general profile who didn't do much as rookies seem to be longshots to do much in their second seasons, either.
--Andy Richardson