There are a bunch of leagues that have dumped kickers. I’m not in that subset. While it’s a lesser position, I see it as another opportunity to find an edge. Kickers aren’t going anywhere in leagues where I’m the commissioner.
Poking around with some numbers at the position, I see that the win-loss differential is a lot stronger than the home-away.
That is, kickers at home aren’t that much better than kickers on the road. Over the last 10 years, kickers for home teams have averaged 7.25 points, while kickers on the road have averaged 6.93. That works out to about a third of a point. Big deal. In two of those 10 seasons, road teams averaged more kicking points than home teams.
But if we take those same games and start looking at wins and losses, there’s a notable difference. Winning teams have averaged 8.68 points. Losing teams have averaged 5.49 – over 3 fewer points per game.
When looking at kickers, we shouldn’t be looking much at where the game will be played. We should instead be zeroing in on teams we are confident will win.
In general terms, anyway; the Lions won a lot of games last year but were a remarkably crappy team for kicking. The Jets, meanwhile, took their lumps but generated over twice as many field goal attempts as touchdowns, with Greg Zuerlein beating these big-picture odds to have a good season.
| KICKER POINTS UNDER DIFFERENT CONDITIONS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Home | Away | Win | Loss |
| 2014 | 7.50 | 6.99 | 9.22 | 5.22 |
| 2015 | 7.29 | 6.96 | 8.56 | 5.69 |
| 2016 | 7.39 | 6.95 | 8.65 | 5.70 |
| 2017 | 7.52 | 6.80 | 9.08 | 5.23 |
| 2018 | 7.24 | 6.70 | 8.39 | 5.57 |
| 2019 | 6.78 | 7.05 | 8.29 | 5.51 |
| 2020 | 7.11 | 7.26 | 8.59 | 5.76 |
| 2021 | 7.12 | 6.84 | 8.96 | 5.00 |
| 2022 | 7.20 | 6.94 | 8.22 | 5.91 |
| 2023 | 7.38 | 6.79 | 8.85 | 5.32 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan