It’s always a little nerve-racking to select a rookie quarterback, but I like the look of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Those guys can really run, and that gives them a much better chance of maybe being viable sooner rather than later.
Williams ran for 11 and 10 touchdowns in his two seasons at Southern Cal. His mindset is more to run to buy time for pass plays to develop, but he’ll probably be a top-10 runner at the position. And Daniels looks like a young Lamar Jackson – a possibility to lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards this year, I think. Daniels isn’t shy about that being part of his game – he says he wants to replace Jackson and Michael Vick as the game’s top runner.
While the track record for rookie quarterbacks is modest, there have been a few that have had instant success. C.J. Stroud last year was a top-10 quarterback for the bulk of the season. Anthony Richardson looked like he might have been right there with him if not for a shoulder injury.
In the last 15 years, 36 quarterbacks selected in the first round have started at least half the season in their first year. Six of those guys averaged top-10 numbers in their first season, and all of those players were helped along by above-average rushing starts. (I’ve got those guys in bold.)
Another seven (of those 36) ranked between 11th and 20th in per-game production. I have those players tagged with black dots.
Conversely, about two thirds of those quarterbacks finished outside the top 20 in per-game scoring. But in my opinion, both Daniels and Williams should be picked well before we get 20 players into a draft.
FIRST-ROUNDERS STARTING AT LEAST HALF THE SEASON (per-game stats) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
2008 | Matt Ryan | 16 | 215 | 1.00 | 7 | .06 | 15.9 | 21 |
2008 | Joe Flacco | 16 | 186 | .88 | 11 | .13 | 14.8 | 26 |
2009 | • Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 227 | 1.30 | 11 | .20 | 19.0 | 14 |
2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 9 | 204 | 1.11 | 17 | .00 | 16.8 | 23 |
2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 163 | .80 | 7 | .20 | 13.5 | 28 |
2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 220 | 1.13 | 4 | .06 | 16.2 | 24 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 1.31 | 44 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 175 | 1.30 | 21 | .00 | 16.1 | 24 |
2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 154 | .86 | 7 | .00 | 11.8 | 33 |
2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 213 | 1.33 | 54 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273 | 1.44 | 16 | .31 | 22.9 | 10 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 15 | 226 | .93 | 7 | .00 | 15.8 | 27 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 206 | .75 | 13 | .13 | 15.6 | 28 |
2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 197 | 1.10 | 19 | .20 | 17.7 | 25 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 231 | 1.17 | 15 | .08 | 18.6 | 21 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 207 | .69 | 30 | .00 | 16.2 | 27 |
2015 | • Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 235 | 1.58 | 21 | .25 | 22.2 | 16 |
2015 | • Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 253 | 1.38 | 13 | .38 | 21.8 | 17 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236 | 1.00 | 9 | .13 | 17.8 | 27 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 183 | .58 | 21 | .17 | 14.7 | 29 |
2018 | • Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 271 | 2.08 | 10 | .00 | 23.0 | 11 |
2018 | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 182 | .91 | 55 | .73 | 22.8 | 13 |
2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 220 | 1.31 | 11 | .08 | 17.8 | 27 |
2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 13 | 172 | .85 | 10 | .00 | 13.1 | 32 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 251 | 2.00 | 23 | .17 | 24.2 | 8 |
2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 233 | 1.25 | 34 | .25 | 21.9 | 13 |
2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 289 | 2.07 | 16 | .33 | 26.5 | 7 |
2020 | • Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 269 | 1.30 | 14 | .30 | 21.9 | 15 |
2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 201 | 1.22 | 12 | .33 | 18.4 | 29 |
2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 224 | 1.29 | 8 | .00 | 17.1 | 26 |
2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 180 | .70 | 39 | .10 | 16.3 | 30 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 214 | .71 | 20 | .12 | 16.2 | 29 |
2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 180 | .69 | 14 | .31 | 15.2 | 31 |
2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 12 | 190 | .58 | 19 | .08 | 14.5 | 30 |
2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 15 | 274 | 1.53 | 11 | .20 | 22.3 | 7 |
2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 180 | .69 | 16 | .00 | 13.6 | 28 |
—Ian Allan