I see James Conner forecasting that he expects to put up career-best numbers this year. That reminds me that I really like the direction of the Arizona offense, specifically with Drew Petzing at offensive coordinator.
Petzing, as a refresher, previously served as an assistant under Kevin Stefanski. And I think some of Stefanski’s know-how in regards to running the ball has rubbed off on Petzing.
The results were apparent on the field last year. With Petzing operating the offense (and without an upgrade in talent) Arizona’s running backs last year ran for 317 more yards and averaged .66 more per carry. Only two teams last year saw a bigger increase in rushing production (from the running back position), and only one had a larger increase in yards per attempt.
That wasn’t a case of Conner working out harder in the offseason, showing up in tip-top shape, or playing with a better supporting cast. They played half the year without Kyler Murray. Instead, Conner got better because of play-calling and offensive design.
| RUNNING BACKS, TEAM PRODUCTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 2022 RBs | 2023 RBs | Diff |
| Miami | 335-1501-10 | 398-2183-27 | 81% |
| LA Rams | 320-1310-11 | 414-1752-17 | 41% |
| Baltimore | 352-1731-9 | 364-1696-20 | 28% |
| Indianapolis | 382-1605-7 | 416-1807-12 | 25% |
| Pittsburgh | 384-1554-10 | 404-1819-12 | 18% |
| New Orleans | 330-1280-4 | 350-1238-9 | 17% |
| San Francisco | 392-1902-13 | 398-1973-19 | 16% |
| Houston | 332-1260-5 | 379-1375-7 | 15% |
| Detroit | 427-1884-23 | 449-2157-24 | 10% |
| Tampa Bay | 343-1230-4 | 360-1231-6 | 8% |
| Buffalo | 291-1418-7 | 381-1688-7 | 8% |
| Arizona | 316-1298-12 | 339-1615-9 | 7% |
| Cincinnati | 311-1238-9 | 318-1294-9 | -3% |
| Tennessee | 410-1813-13 | 383-1631-14 | -5% |
| Chicago | 368-1650-9 | 360-1519-9 | -6% |
| Washington | 433-1676-5 | 298-1269-8 | -11% |
| Kansas City | 335-1500-10 | 318-1295-9 | -13% |
| Cleveland | 438-2018-15 | 430-1685-14 | -13% |
| NY Jets | 338-1410-9 | 322-1320-6 | -14% |
| Jacksonville | 359-1701-11 | 358-1248-13 | -14% |
| Denver | 367-1540-8 | 353-1431-5 | -14% |
| Seattle | 351-1679-11 | 337-1403-9 | -17% |
| New England | 354-1663-10 | 356-1326-8 | -20% |
| Atlanta | 455-2209-13 | 450-1840-8 | -22% |
| Las Vegas | 378-1809-12 | 356-1376-8 | -27% |
| Green Bay | 410-1929-9 | 368-1497-4 | -30% |
| Philadelphia | 368-1745-18 | 344-1532-7 | -31% |
| LA Chargers | 344-1376-15 | 327-1135-7 | -32% |
| NY Giants | 380-1673-12 | 330-1183-7 | -33% |
| Carolina | 415-1893-12 | 381-1380-6 | -33% |
| Minnesota | 357-1497-15 | 326-1319-4 | -35% |
| Dallas | 462-2044-22 | 370-1425-9 | -42% |
In the chart, Arizona’s overall production (rushing by RBs) is up only 7 percent overall. That’s using standard scoring, and held down by modest touchdown numbers. I will concede that Arizona actually scored 3 fewer rushing touchdowns last year. (Conner scored only 7 in his 13 games.) But that’s an issue that could be corrected as the team gets better. That should happen, with Murray entering training camp fully healthy and the team adding Marvin Harrison in the draft.
Most still consider the Cardinals to be the worst team in their own division. They’re trying to overtake the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks. But they don’t look like a 4th-place team to me. Certainly, they’re not going 4-13 again. (I don’t see a big difference between them and the Seahawks, and the Rams are a Stafford injury away from falling into the basement.)
Despite missing four games last year, Conner finished with 1,040 rushing yards while averaging 5 yards per carry. “That’s the floor,” Conner told ESPN.com. “I want that to be the lowest I rush for in my career going forward. Definitely got a lot of work to put in but that’s the floor, not the ceiling.”
In general, I like Conner, and I like the situation. He was a top-10 back when healthy last year. In his 12 full games, he averaged 83 rushing and 13 receiving yards, with 9 TDs. Should he miss time (like he always does) the Cardinals might get similar production from third-round Trey Benson.
—Ian Allan