A reader asked a question recently about rookie wide receivers. He's seen a lot catching 7-10 touchdowns lately (guys like Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice last year) and was wondering what kind of difference a rookie going to work with an established quarterback can make.
My initial thought was that there probably isn't much to it. Rice was working with Patrick Mahomes, but a year earlier Skyy Moore (drafted one pick earlier than Rice was) did nothing. Addison was probably helped by having Kirk Cousins, but Reed was working with a first-year starter in Jordan Love.
But I went to the files and pulled some numbers. Looking at the last 15 years, I came up with 43 wide receivers who scored 7-plus touchdowns as rookies. What were they working with at quarterback?
By my count (and there's some room for debate on a couple of these guys), 26 of the 43 (60 percent) were working with proven, established quarterbacks. I'm not sure that's a large enough percentage to chase in drafts -- it's reasonable to think that 60 percent of the quarterback starting in the league the last 15 years were proven, established quarterbacks -- but maybe enough of a percentage to favor Marvin Harrison over Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. But we were already doing that anyway.
But if we're looking at lesser rookie wideouts, perhaps Jermaine Burton (working with Joe Burrow) or Roman Wilson (working with Russell Wilson) over Ja'Lynn Polk (working with some combination of Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye) or Xavier Legette (working with Bryce Young).
The 43 wide receivers who have scored 7-plus touchdowns as rookies the last 15 years are shown below. Their quarterbacks that season are in the last column, with the guys I deemed proven, established starters in bold.
ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 7-PLUS TDS, 2009-2023 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk | Quarterback |
2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 5 | Joe Burrow |
2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 8 | Eli Manning |
2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 13 | Josh McCown/Mike Glennon |
2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 61 | 593 | 12 | 18 | Alex Smith |
2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 65 | 964 | 11 | 16 | Josh Freeman |
2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 62 | 873 | 11 | 23 | Ben Roethlisberger |
2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 10 | 20 | Matt Ryan |
2023 | Jordan Addison, Min. | 70 | 911 | 10 | 23 | Kirk Cousins |
2023 | Jayden Reed, G.B. | 64 | 793 | 10 | 25 | Jordan Love |
2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1137 | 9 | 7 | Drew Brees |
2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 9 | 16 | Cam Newton |
2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 52 | 1051 | 9 | 22 | Ryan Tannehill |
2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | 45 | 469 | 9 | 38 | Christian Ponder |
2022 | Christian Watson, G.B. | 41 | 611 | 9 | 42 | Aaron Rodgers |
2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 18 | Philip Rivers |
2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 58 | 917 | 8 | 20 | Ben Roethlisberger |
2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 8 | 21 | Matt Ryan |
2009 | Percy Harvin, Min. | 60 | 790 | 8 | 23 | Brett Favre |
2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 67 | 872 | 8 | 25 | Nick Foles/Mark Sanchez |
2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 50 | 861 | 8 | 28 | Andrew Luck (rookie) |
2016 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 65 | 683 | 8 | 36 | Eli Manning |
2019 | Darius Slayton, NYG | 48 | 740 | 8 | 37 | Eli Manning |
2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 51 | 664 | 8 | 41 | Russell Wilson |
2010 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 45 | 561 | 8 | 42 | Tony Romo/Jon Kitna |
2014 | Martavis Bryant, Pitt. | 26 | 549 | 8 | 61 | Ben Roethlisberger |
2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 6 | Kirk Cousins |
2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 12 | Tua Tagovailoa |
2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 17 | Andy Dalton (rookie) |
2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 7 | 22 | Dak Prescott |
2023 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 79 | 938 | 7 | 27 | Patrick Mahomes |
2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 58 | 900 | 7 | 29 | Russell Wilson |
2009 | Austin Collie, Ind. | 60 | 676 | 7 | 29 | Peyton Manning |
2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 58 | 919 | 7 | 30 | Case Keenum/Dwayne Haskins |
2023 | Tank Dell, Hou. | 47 | 709 | 7 | 39 | C.J. Stroud (rookie) |
2022 | Jahan Dotson, Was. | 35 | 523 | 7 | 51 | Carson Wentz/Taylor Heinicke |
2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 60 | 748 | 7 | 35 | Jmmy Garoppolo/Nick Mullens |
2020 | Gabe Davis, Buff. | 35 | 599 | 7 | 57 | Josh Allen |
2019 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 46 | 584 | 7 | 46 | Lamar Jackson (1st-year starter) |
2019 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 26 | 538 | 7 | 59 | Patrick Mahomes |
2018 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 33 | 423 | 7 | 60 | Mitchell Trubisky |
2013 | Marlon Brown, Balt. | 49 | 524 | 7 | 48 | Joe Flacco |
2011 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 50 | 841 | 7 | 30 | Joe Flacco |
2010 | Jacoby Ford, Oak. | 25 | 470 | 7 | 56 | Jason Campbell |
--Andy Richardson