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Factoid

Rookie wide receivers

How much does proven QB help?

A reader asked a question recently about rookie wide receivers. He's seen a lot catching 7-10 touchdowns lately (guys like Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice last year) and was wondering what kind of difference a rookie going to work with an established quarterback can make.

My initial thought was that there probably isn't much to it. Rice was working with Patrick Mahomes, but a year earlier Skyy Moore (drafted one pick earlier than Rice was) did nothing. Addison was probably helped by having Kirk Cousins, but Reed was working with a first-year starter in Jordan Love.

But I went to the files and pulled some numbers. Looking at the last 15 years, I came up with 43 wide receivers who scored 7-plus touchdowns as rookies. What were they working with at quarterback?

By my count (and there's some room for debate on a couple of these guys), 26 of the 43 (60 percent) were working with proven, established quarterbacks. I'm not sure that's a large enough percentage to chase in drafts -- it's reasonable to think that 60 percent of the quarterback starting in the league the last 15 years were proven, established quarterbacks -- but maybe enough of a percentage to favor Marvin Harrison over Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. But we were already doing that anyway.

But if we're looking at lesser rookie wideouts, perhaps Jermaine Burton (working with Joe Burrow) or Roman Wilson (working with Russell Wilson) over Ja'Lynn Polk (working with some combination of Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye) or Xavier Legette (working with Bryce Young).

The 43 wide receivers who have scored 7-plus touchdowns as rookies the last 15 years are shown below. Their quarterbacks that season are in the last column, with the guys I deemed proven, established starters in bold.

ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 7-PLUS TDS, 2009-2023
YearPlayerRecYdsTDRkQuarterback
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.811455135Joe Burrow
2014Odell Beckham, NYG911305128Eli Manning
2014Mike Evans, T.B.6810511213Josh McCown/Mike Glennon
2016Tyreek Hill, K.C.615931218Alex Smith
2010Mike Williams, T.B.659641116Josh Freeman
2020Chase Claypool, Pitt.628731123Ben Roethlisberger
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl.648211020Matt Ryan
2023Jordan Addison, Min.709111023Kirk Cousins
2023Jayden Reed, G.B.647931025Jordan Love
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.92113797Drew Brees
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.731008916Cam Newton
2019A.J. Brown, Ten.521051922Ryan Tannehill
2013Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.45469938Christian Ponder
2022Christian Watson, G.B.41611942Aaron Rodgers
2013Keenan Allen, S.D.711046818Philip Rivers
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.58917820Ben Roethlisberger
2011Julio Jones, Atl.54959821Matt Ryan
2009Percy Harvin, Min.60790823Brett Favre
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil.67872825Nick Foles/Mark Sanchez
2012T.Y. Hilton, Ind.50861828Andrew Luck (rookie)
2016Sterling Shepard, NYG65683836Eli Manning
2019Darius Slayton, NYG48740837Eli Manning
2015Tyler Lockett, Sea.51664841Russell Wilson
2010Dez Bryant, Dall.45561842Tony Romo/Jon Kitna
2014Martavis Bryant, Pitt.26549861Ben Roethlisberger
2020Justin Jefferson, Min.88140076Kirk Cousins
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.1041015712Tua Tagovailoa
2011A.J. Green, Cin.651057717Andy Dalton (rookie)
2020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.74935722Dak Prescott
2023Rashee Rice, K.C.79938727Patrick Mahomes
2019DK Metcalf, Sea.58900729Russell Wilson
2009Austin Collie, Ind.60676729Peyton Manning
2019Terry McLaurin, Was.58919730Case Keenum/Dwayne Haskins
2023Tank Dell, Hou.47709739C.J. Stroud (rookie)
2022Jahan Dotson, Was.35523751Carson Wentz/Taylor Heinicke
2020Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.60748735Jmmy Garoppolo/Nick Mullens
2020Gabe Davis, Buff.35599757Josh Allen
2019Marquise Brown, Balt.46584746Lamar Jackson (1st-year starter)
2019Mecole Hardman, K.C.26538759Patrick Mahomes
2018Anthony Miller, Chi.33423760Mitchell Trubisky
2013Marlon Brown, Balt.49524748Joe Flacco
2011Torrey Smith, Balt.50841730Joe Flacco
2010Jacoby Ford, Oak.25470756Jason Campbell

--Andy Richardson

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