Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Factoid

Transplant runners

Success rate low with running backs on new teams

It was a wild offseason at running back, with four 1,000-yard rushers landing with new teams. And that doesn’t include the two backs who landed the biggest offseason contracts (Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, who didn’t have big rushing seasons last year).

This is arguably the most turbulent offseason in the history of the position, making for an interesting offseason for scouting purposes. More commonly, we see one or two 1,000-yard runners landing with new teams. Since the move to 32 teams, 35 running backs (in 22 seasons) have run for over 1,000 yards, then left those teams. Those 35 (with this year’s four in bold) appear below.

1,000-YARD RUSHERS WHO WENT TO NEW TEAMS (old team numbers)
YearPlayerAttYdsAvgTDReceivingPPRRk
2003Clinton Portis, Den.2901,5915.51438-314-0314.56
2003Eddie George, Ten.3121,0313.3522-163-0171.423
2004Reuben Droughns, Den.2751,2404.5632-241-2228.115
2005Edgerrin James, Ind.3601,5064.21344-337-1312.35
2005Mike Anderson, Den.2391,0144.21218-212-1218.612
2006Ahman Green, G.B.2661,0594.0546-373-1225.215
2006Thomas Jones, Chi.2961,2104.1636-154-0208.218
2006Jamal Lewis, Balt.3141,1323.6918-115-0196.721
2006Travis Henry, Ten.2701,2114.5718-78-0190.923
2006Tatum Bell, Den.2331,0254.4224-115-0150.032
2008Derrick Ward, NYG1821,0255.6241-384-0193.920
2009Thomas Jones, NYJ3311,4024.21410-58-0240.09
2011Cedric Benson, Cin.2731,0673.9615-82-0165.926
2012Steven Jackson, St.L.2581,0454.1438-321-0200.617
2012Shonn Greene, NYJ2761,0633.9819-151-0188.419
2012Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG2211,0154.6623-245-0185.020
2013Knowshon Moreno, Den.2411,0384.31060-548-3296.64
2013Chris Johnson, Ten.2791,0773.9642-345-4244.29
2014DeMarco Murray, Dall.3921,8454.71357-416-0361.12
2014LeSean McCoy, Phil.3121,3194.2528-155-0205.412
2014Frank Gore, S.F.2551,1064.3411-111-1162.721
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.2291,1064.81021-188-0210.49
2015Chris Ivory, NYJ2471,0704.3730-217-1206.711
2016LeGarrette Blount, N.E.2991,1613.9187-38-0234.99
2017LeVeon Bell, Pitt.3211,2914.0985-655-2345.62
2017C.J. Anderson, Den.2451,0074.1328-224-1177.118
2019Leonard Fournette, Jac.2651,1524.4376-522-0261.47
2019Carlos Hyde, Hou.2451,0704.4610-42-0157.228
2022Dalvin Cook, Min.2641,1734.4839-295-2245.810
2022Jamaal Williams, Det.2621,0664.11712-73-0229.912
2022Miles Sanders, Phil.2591,2694.91120-78-0220.715
2023D'Andre Swift, Phil.2291,0494.6539-214-1201.320
2023Derrick Henry, Ten.2801,1674.21228-214-0246.89
2023Joe Mixon, Cin.2571,0344.0952-376-3267.06
2023Tony Pollard, Dall.2521,0054.0655-311-0224.614

At the same time, history tells us that things can turn sideways at this position in a hurry. There are more misses than hits when trying to transplant veteran running backs – even ones that have tended to be successful.

Of the last 31 of these backs, only two finished with top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring), including none in the last 16 seasons. Only seven others finished with top-20 numbers. Instead, almost two thirds of these backs didn’t even finish with top-30 numbers. Pretty damning.

As a group, these 31 backs averaged 568 fewer rushing yards, almost 10 fewer touchdowns and a half yard less per carry. Scheme, usage and supporting cast matter.

1,000-YARD RUSHERS WHO WENT TO NEW TEAMS (new team numbers)
YearPlayerAttYdsAvgTDReceivingPPRRk
2004Clinton Portis, Was.3431,3153.8540-235-2241.89
2004Eddie George, Dall.1324323.349-83-084.548
2005• Reuben Droughns, Cle.3091,2324.0239-369-0211.114
2006• Edgerrin James, Ari.3371,1593.4638-217-0211.617
2006Mike Anderson, Balt.391834.719-54-038.778
2007Jamal Lewis, Cle.2981,3044.4930-248-2251.26
2007Thomas Jones, NYJ3101,1193.6128-217-1173.622
2007Travis Henry, Den.1676914.147-65-0106.647
2007Ahman Green, Hou.702603.7214-123-064.364
2007Tatum Bell, Det.441824.1114-63-044.578
2009Derrick Ward, T.B.1144093.6120-150-293.949
2010Thomas Jones, K.C.2458963.7614-122-0151.827
2012Cedric Benson, G.B.712483.5114-97-054.568
2013Steven Jackson, Atl.1575433.5633-191-1148.431
2013Shonn Greene, Ten.772953.846-39-063.460
2013Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind.411864.527-42-041.877
2014Chris Johnson, NYJ1556634.3124-151-1117.439
2014Knowshon Moreno, Mia.311484.811-8-022.6103
2015• Frank Gore, Ind.2609673.7634-267-1199.414
2015• DeMarco Murray, Phil.1937023.6644-322-1188.415
2015• LeSean McCoy, Buff.2038954.4332-292-2182.717
2016• Todd Gurley, LAR2788853.2643-327-0200.215
2016Chris Ivory, Jac.1174393.8320-186-0100.548
2017LeGarrette Blount, Phil.1737664.428-50-1109.645
2018C.J. Anderson, Car.-LAR674036.025-41-167.470
2019• LeVeon Bell, NYJ2457893.2366-461-1217.016
2020Leonard Fournette, T.B.973673.8636-233-0132.035
2020Carlos Hyde, Sea.813564.4416-93-084.959
2023Miles Sanders, Car.1294323.4127-154-091.650
2023Jamaal Williams, N.O.1063062.9118-62-060.861
2023Dalvin Cook, NYJ672143.2015-78-044.270

These six most-recent candidates don’t look particularly promising. Particularly Joe Mixon (pictured). The Bengals opted to get rid of him. The Eagles made no effort to bring back D’Andre Swift, while the Titans, Cowboys and Giants decided Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley weren’t worth what it would take to re-sign him.

Josh Jacobs got more from the Packers than the Raiders thought he was worth.

If form holds, over half of these six will be overdrafted in typical fantasy leagues.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index