Amazon Prime Day (actually two days, July 16 and 17 this year) has become so popular, it’s nearly a national holiday. And no wonder: With more than 168 million members in the United States, nearly half of all Americans have a Prime membership. And they’ll be spending billions over the next couple of days, looking for bargains to buy.
But that might not be such a great idea. And the reasoning behind that opinion can help you on draft day.
At this point, I can almost hear many of you financially-savvy people yelling:
Just because something is “on sale” doesn’t mean you need to buy it!
And that’s absolutely true. We know something isn’t worth its price, or we just don’t need it, so we avoid it. But then, sometimes, it goes on sale. And we’re so eager to “get a deal” that we end up buying something we already knew didn’t fit our needs. We bought it because it felt good to get a bargain, like we got one over on all the people who paid the full retail price. And then we justify why we bought it, imagining how much use we’ll get out of it and how smart we were to scoop it up at a low price. Later, we realize we didn’t really like it or need it, and have to acknowledge that we wasted our money.
Do you see where I’m going with this? I’ve done this on draft day so many times, it stands out more when I don’t do it. Like last year, when I was wasn’t sold on Saquon Barkley. I knew I wasn’t going to be the one to reach for him early. But then he dropped, and I had a chance to take him again. At this point, drafting him would be a “bargain,” and a much wiser move than taking him the previous round. I was tempted, because this deal wouldn’t last long. But my thoughts on Barkley didn’t change so I passed again, and I’m glad I did. I wasn’t going to give up that pick just because it now looked like a value pick, and my fellow managers might even praise me for making it. He didn’t fit into my plans, so I stuck to my guns and let someone else spend the draft capital.
Now, was there a point where he didfit into my plans? Of course. But that spot was so far down, I’d have no shot at getting him on my team. I’m talking about a player you decide isn’t worth your second-round pick, but somehow is worth your third-round pick when they’re still there. At the end of the year, you won’t even remember what round you took your best players, so none of that matters, anyway. Time and time again, I’ve taken the “bargain” player after I didn’t like him a round earlier, because I’d look smart for getting “value” out of the pick. And I’d play him, only to see him perform exactly as I expected. In the moment, I justified why he was all of a sudden a great choice. I’d even argue (in my head) that I “had” to take him at that spot.
And that’s absurd. You never have to take anybody, at any spot. If you come into the draft with a plan, stick to it. Sure, be aware of a player who somehow falls several rounds for a questionable reason, like hysterics over an injury that isn’t all that serious. That scenario could happen, but it’s very rare. What is downright common is a guy falling a round and coming back to you when you expected he’d be gone. And right now, in July, I’m advising you to make a mental note to not let a guy slipping a round cause you to deviate from your strategy. You aren’t at the draft to find bargains or get value, no matter what anybody says. You’re there to accumulate talent that will help you win your league, and that’s it. If you don’t think a guy can help you do that, stay away. Don’t worry about looking shrewd or letting some website program tell you what a great job you did after the fact. You could find value in every round compared to their ADP, and still draft a loser. It’s your draft, using your strategy, and you’re the only person you need to please.
Yes, there are cases where you like a guy, but you pass on him because you like someone better, and he comes back to you the next round. Those are great moments! You ended up getting someone you liked, and you got them later than expected. It’s a great feeling. So great, in fact, that we sometimes look to manufacture that feeling whether it’s authentic or not. We convince ourselves that we’re now excited to welcome a guy we didn’t like a few minutes before. That’s what you want to avoid on draft day, and you can commit to being vigilant against it now.
And if you need extra motivation, pay attention to the deals on Amazon Prime Day. Specifically, look at an item that you don’t really want. Watch it go on sale in limited quantities, and sell out pretty quickly. It might look silly to you, because saving a few bucks off a mediocre product isn’t a great deal in the long run. That’s your clear-headed thinking. But then you might find something else you don’t really want, and when it goes on sale you feel a tinge of motivation to actually buy it. It’s a deal, after all.
Butthat is the feeling I want you to avoid on draft day. We all do it sometimes, enough that last year people spent more than $12 billion on Prime Day. That’s enough to buy the Washington Commanders. Twice.
Just be aware that it could happen to you, and guard against it. Odds are, your opponents won’t. And watching them waste draft spots on players they didn’t even want could be great for you later in the year. Happy shopping!
Have you ever taken a player you didn’t really want because they looked like a bargain pick? Did it burn you, or did it work out in your favor? You buying anything on Prime Day? Share your thoughts below.
