I truly believe that July is too early to focus on cheat sheets. Too many things will change between now and draft or auction day, and while they're fun to look at I don't think what you see now will actually help you when you need it most.
Instead, I prefer to look at specific players and situations and gauge my feelings about them. Just take note of overall impressions, because understanding how you feel about one player often leads to a conclusion about a few others. And before long, you have a pretty good feel for the major players in the league. You'll adjust as we get closer to the season (and have more information) but having a strong foundation of opinions is a good start to any draft preparation.
I call it "If/Then" partially because I think it's an easy-to-understand conditional statement, and partially because I thought it would look pretty good as a column title. Either way, I think it can help you prepare for your draft or auction.
I'm sure you get it but let me give you an example anyway: If you think Saquon Barkley will thrive in Philadelphia, then you necessarily aren't as high on Jalen Hurts. Hurts has averaged more than 715 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in three full seasons as the starter. If you think Barkley will be an impact player, those numbers won't stay with Hurts. And without them, he's not a guy you want leading your fantasy team.
It sounds simple, but it's important. Many readers are convinced Barkley will be a focal point of the offense, while others think the offense won't change much even with him in the backfield. Which one are you? The answer affects your quarterback and running back rankings. Keep in mind that "I don't know" is a valid answer in July. But these are the questions you should be asking yourself at this stage of the offseason.
Of course, sometimes you encounter a question and the answer jumps to you immediately. Is Jim Harbaugh so serious about running the ball that it will do significant damage to Justin Herbert's value? For me, the answer is a definite yes. Harbaugh has gutted the team's receiving talent, and now boasts a wide receiver room full of guys who would be the #3 option (or worse) on most good teams. Joshua Palmer? DJ Chark? Quentin Johnston? Ladd McConkey looks like a great option, partially because the rest of the guys look so weak.
Therefore, it's clear to me that receiving talent isn't a priority for the Chargers, and I don't see Herbert slinging the ball around as a big part of the game plan. And if he does, who will catch it? For me, that question is answered, and I probably won't have a chance to take Herbert where I think he deserves to go.
Others might be tougher to answer. How about the receivers in Houston? You can't believe that Dell, Collins and Diggs will all have great seasons. I mean, you could believe that, but the odds are against you being right. In more than 100 NFL seasons, a team has had three 1,000-yard receivers a grand total of five times. So at least one is going to falter. Maybe more, considering that Dalton Schultz caught 59 passes last season, and new running back Joe Mixon caught 61. Which one(s) do you like, and which ones look more likely to underachieve?
Like I said, you don't need all the answers right now. But you do need to ask the right questions. And in many cases, believing in one guy automatically means not believing in another. You're actually evaluating multiple players with each scenario, and I believe that's a better use of your time before we reach August. Enjoy your offseason!
Which scenarios most intrigue you at this point? How do you feel about the Saquon Barkley, or the Chargers? Which Texans receiver do you have ranked the highest? Share your thoughts below.
