Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk in free agency. They're going to have a new No. 1 wideout, and there are plenty of candidates. Rookie Keon Coleman is being drafted earliest. Free agent signing Curtis Samuel has the most experience. And then there's Khalil Shakir.
There are other possibilities (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool), but I think those guys are mainly fighting to be role players. Coleman, Samuel, Shakir -- those are the legit No. 1s. I've talked up Samuel here, but Shakir also has a good case. (Ian talked about him here last week, as well.)
For one thing, Shakir finished strong. He caught 6 for 105 in the Week 18 win in Miami, then caught touchdowns in both playoff games, including a really remarkable one against Kansas City. Ten catches for 75 yards and those scores in the two contests. Maybe his play down the stretch made the Diggs and Davis decisions easier.
Shakir was just a fifth-round pick in 2022, but he was impressively efficient with his opportunities last season. Most notably, he caught over 86 percent of the passes sent his way. That was the best catch rate by a first- or second-year wideout (minimum 40 targets) in the last 10 years. Pretty strong performance.
There have been 31 other wide receivers in the past decade to catch at least 70 percent of the passes thrown their way in one of their first two seasons. I thought I'd see how they fared one year later. There have been some success stories.
Table shows the 32 wideouts to reach that catch rate in one of their first two seasons since 2014. That includes three other players last year: another second-year guy, Wan'Dale Robinson, and a pair of rookies (Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers).
Of the other 28 guys, over a third (10) put up top 20 numbers in PPR leagues a year later. Eight of them ranked in the top 10 at the position. I'm not suggesting Shakir is headed for those kind of numbers, but a pretty nice success rate for guys who have shown some competency/efficiency in their offenses those first two seasons.
| HIGH CATCH RATE WIDEOUTS, ONE YEAR LATER (2014-2023) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Ctch | Next | Rk |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 69 | 53 | 550 | 10.4 | 4 | 76.8% | 78-1173-8 | 10 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 112 | 84 | 758 | 9.0 | 5 | 75.0% | 94-1136-4 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kenny Stills, N.O. | 83 | 63 | 931 | 14.8 | 3 | 75.9% | 27-440-3 | 82 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 14.3 | 12 | 70.0% | 101-1367-10 | 4 |
| 2014 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 44 | 31 | 242 | 7.8 | 3 | 70.5% | 52-473-10 | 27 |
| 2015 | Bryan Walters, Jac. | 45 | 32 | 368 | 11.5 | 1 | 71.1% | 24-231-2 | 103 |
| 2015 | Jamison Crowder, Was. | 78 | 59 | 604 | 10.2 | 2 | 75.6% | 66-789-3 | 32 |
| 2015 | Jeremy Butler, Balt. | 44 | 31 | 363 | 11.7 | 0 | 70.5% | 2-11-0 | 184 |
| 2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 51 | 664 | 13.0 | 8 | 73.9% | 45-555-3 | 56 |
| 2016 | Eli Rogers, Pitt. | 66 | 48 | 594 | 12.4 | 3 | 72.7% | 18-149-1 | 123 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 121 | 92 | 1137 | 12.4 | 9 | 76.0% | 125-1405-9 | 6 |
| 2016 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 112 | 84 | 903 | 10.8 | 3 | 75.0% | 64-849-8 | 19 |
| 2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 83 | 61 | 593 | 9.7 | 12 | 73.5% | 75-1183-8 | 8 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 79 | 58 | 917 | 15.8 | 8 | 73.4% | 42-552-3 | 63 |
| 2017 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 84 | 59 | 731 | 12.4 | 2 | 70.2% | 66-872-4 | 32 |
| 2017 | Trent Taylor, S.F. | 60 | 43 | 430 | 10.0 | 2 | 71.7% | 26-215-1 | 113 |
| 2018 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 55 | 40 | 566 | 14.2 | 6 | 72.7% | 94-1161-10 | 5 |
| 2018 | Ryan Switzer, Pitt. | 44 | 36 | 253 | 7.0 | 1 | 81.8% | 8-27-0 | 165 |
| 2019 | Greg Ward, Phil. | 40 | 28 | 254 | 9.1 | 1 | 70.0% | 7-95-3 | 134 |
| 2020 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 44 | 33 | 391 | 11.9 | 1 | 75.0% | 57-802-6 | 31 |
| 2020 | Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 77 | 56 | 656 | 11.7 | 2 | 72.7% | 103-1038-9 | 10 |
| 2020 | Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 81 | 59 | 729 | 12.4 | 0 | 72.8% | 83-866-2 | 29 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1400 | 15.9 | 7 | 70.4% | 128-1809-9 | 1 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 79 | 58 | 600 | 10.3 | 5 | 73.4% | 27-272-2 | 95 |
| 2021 | Devin Duvernay, Balt. | 47 | 33 | 272 | 8.2 | 3 | 70.2% | 37-407-5 | 61 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 9.8 | 7 | 74.3% | 72-1014-4 | 34 |
| 2021 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 64 | 54 | 435 | 8.1 | 1 | 84.4% | 41-414-1 | 83 |
| 2022 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 146 | 106 | 1161 | 11.0 | 6 | 72.6% | 119-1515-10 | 3 |
| 2023 | Khalil Shakir, Buff. | 45 | 39 | 611 | 15.7 | 2 | 86.7% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 102 | 79 | 938 | 11.9 | 7 | 77.5% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 78 | 60 | 525 | 8.8 | 2 | 76.9% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 108 | 77 | 858 | 11.1 | 6 | 71.3% | ??? | ??? |
I was impressed by Shakir down the stretch. Let's see what reports are like at training camp, but he's definitely on my radar for a 2024 sleeper.
--Andy Richardson