Keon Coleman is an intriguing possibility. He lasted until the second round, but he’s going to a team that lost its two leading receivers. Some chance he’ll be Buffalo’s leading receiver, and he’s working with one of the game’s best quarterbacks. That makes him one of the key players to be watching in August.
Thirteen receivers were selected in the first two rounds of the draft. Picked with the first pick of the second round, Coleman is the largest of this group, but also the slowest. (At the combine, he measured 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds but ran only 4.61.) He relies more on winning physically rather than with speed or quickness – he’s a converted basketball player with a 38-inch vertical.
With his physical profile in mind, I kept an eye on separation and contested situations when reviewing his 95 targets at Florida State last year. He made a few eye-popping grabs in contested situations last year, making it seem like he might be a nice upgrade over Gabe Davis in those situations, but those kind of plays are tough to pull off week after week at the NFL level.
For the 2023 season, I counted 24 plays where Coleman had a defender (or two) on him and the ball was on target – or at least catchable. He caught 8 of those passes, for 165 yards and 5 TDs. And there was one other play where he drew a flag on a fade route into the end zone. It’s not easy, in other words, consistently making those plays.
If you look at just those 8 contested catches, it makes for an impressive highlight reel. There was a one-handed leaping catch on a ball against Syracuse (pictured) that was one of the top few catches by anyone last year. He won the Clemson game by pulling down a contested 24-yard touchdown in overtime. There were 3 TDs scored on fade routes, with him having the wherewithal to fend off the defender with his hands and also time his leap properly. (I would expect the Bills will be looking to him at least some in those situations.)
In my logging over the passes below, I’ve got those 8 contested grabs in bold.
But while those 8 catches were impressive as hell, there were also about twice as many similar situations where Coleman didn’t come up with the ball, with it usually being broken up. And those were against college defensive backs, who aren’t as big, fast or good as what he’ll see this year.
His hands seem fine. In my review, I flagged 5 plays where “drop” could be brought into the discussion. There were no blatant concentration drops. I saw a couple where he was open but the throw was off target, making for a more difficult catch. One where I honestly couldn’t quite tell what happened. And a goal-line throw against Wake Forest where he was pushing off a defender to get open and then going to the ground to try and dig out a low throw – one he would catch sometimes, but doesn’t seem fair to call it a “drop”.
On this distance breakdown, I had him at 36 of 45 when catching passes short of 10 yards downfield. On many of those, he was wide open with nobody in the vicinity. But I charted him at only 16 of 50 when he was 10-plus yards downfield at the time the ball showed up.
In the chart below, “BLOS” = behind the line of scrimmage. Those are generally gimme catches. I previously charted Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Worthy, and they both posted better numbers on those plays, generating more after the catch. Pearsall averaged a yard more per catch on those quick throws outside, while Worthy averaged almost 2 more yards.
The “short” plays show 0-9 yards, “medium” shows 10-19 yards, and “long” shows plays where he’s at least 20 yards downfield when the ball shows up. A couple of plays were apparently nullified by penalties, because I’ve got him at 52 catches off the TV footage, while the official stats show 50 receptions.
| KEON COLEMAN RECEIVING BREAKDOWN | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range | Tgt | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| BLOS | 20 | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 1 |
| short | 25 | 17 | 196 | 11.5 | 2 |
| medium | 22 | 7 | 111 | 15.9 | 4 |
| long | 28 | 9 | 283 | 31.4 | 4 |
| Official | 95 | 50 | 658 | 13.2 | 11 |
I will be watching Coleman closely in August. He’s got more ball-winning ability than most receivers, particularly the other key options in Buffalo – Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel. Both those guys are both faster, and with more NFL experience. Shakir has been working with Josh Allen for the last two years.
I’m not opposed to taking a later-round stab at Coleman, but I don’t see him at this point as a player who can be counted on.
In the chart below, you’re seeing his 95 targets from the 2023 season. Three columns in there that deserve clarification:
Range:
Distance downfield when the ball showed up.
Acc:
Accuracy (was the ball on target – yes or no).
Cont:
Contested (was there a defensive back in the area with the potential to get a hand on the ball – yes or no).
| KEON COLEMAN'S 2023 PLAYS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp. | Tgt | No | Yds | Range | Acc? | Cont? | Comment |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | No | -- | off target, high |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | No | -- | off target, high & inside |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | 41 | short | Yes | No | 9-yd slant becomes 41 TD |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 0 | 0 | BLOS | No | -- | not open, not accurate, INT |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | 6 | short | Yes | No | open, sliding catch on sideline |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | -3 | BLOS | Yes | No | open, hit as ball arrives |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | No | No | open, ball behind him, drop |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | 21 | long | Yes | Yes | contested high throw for 21 TD |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | 6 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, open, 7 YAC |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | 42 | long | Yes | Yes | bomb, contested |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | -1 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, no YAC |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | 6 | BLOS | Yes | No | 9 YAC thru traffic |
| L.S.U. | 1 | 1 | 7 | med. | Yes | Yes | contested fade for 7 TD |
| S.Miss. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | Yes | contested, ripped out going to ground |
| S.Miss. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | Yes | contested, leaping between 2 DBs |
| S.Miss. | 1 | 1 | 1 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 8 YAC |
| S.Miss. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | Yes | No | on sideline, DB knocks it down |
| S.Miss. | 1 | 1 | 34 | med. | Yes | No | escapes, hurdles DB |
| S.Miss. | 1 | 1 | 6 | med. | Yes | No | wide open slant, 6 TD |
| at Bo.C. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | Yes | Yes | contested, 14 TD incomplete |
| at Bo.C. | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | ? | No | crossing, maybe drop (can't tell) |
| at Bo.C. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | Yes | contested, would have gone for 27 |
| at Clem. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | Yes | Yes | contested, guy on his back |
| at Clem. | 1 | 1 | 3 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick throw outside, 5 YAC |
| at Clem. | 1 | 1 | 14 | med. | Yes | No | open, 14 to the sideline |
| at Clem. | 1 | 1 | 7 | short | Yes | No | wide open slant, 7 TD |
| at Clem. | 1 | 1 | 38 | long | Yes | No | open, 14 YAC on sideline |
| at Clem. | 1 | 1 | 10 | short | Yes | No | open, crossing 2 YAC |
| at Clem. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | covered, bomb, overthrown |
| at Clem. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | covered, bomb, overthrown |
| at Clem. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | Yes | Yes | covered, 3rd-and-10 late, broken up |
| at Clem. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | Yes | covered, 4th-and-10 late, broken up |
| at Clem. | 1 | 1 | 24 | long | Yes | Yes | covered, 24 TD in overtime |
| Va.Tech | 1 | 1 | 14 | short | Yes | No | slant, open, 7 YAC |
| Va.Tech | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | covered, bomb, overthrown |
| Va.Tech | 1 | 1 | 2 | BLOS | Yes | No | open, 4 YAC |
| Va.Tech | 1 | 1 | 6 | short | Yes | No | open, sideline route |
| Va.Tech | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | No | No | somewhat open, fade route |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 11 | short | Yes | No | 8 yds on comeback, 3 YAC |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 27 | long | No | Yes | cov, insane leaping 1-handed rec |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 4 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 5 YAC, fumbled |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 8 | short | Yes | No | 8 yards on sideline |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 13 | short | Yes | No | slant for 6, plus 7 YAC |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 58 | long | Yes | No | TD, 3 yds behind defense, 17 YAC |
| Syra. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | covered, bomb, off target |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 6 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 8 YAC |
| Syra. | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | Yes | Yes | double-covered, knocked down |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 7 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 9 YAC |
| Syra. | 1 | 1 | 13 | BLOS | No | No | open, high throw, 13 YAC |
| Duke | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | No | No | open, high throw whizzes by |
| Duke | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | No | No | open, 17-yd throw over his head |
| Duke | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | Yes | Yes | covered, ball bounces up for Pick 6 |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | 30 | med. | Yes | No | open, 15 yds plus 15 YAC |
| Duke | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | covered, bomb, overthrown |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | 24 | long | Yes | Yes | covered but DB doesn't see ball |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 8 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 8 YAC |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 6 | short | Yes | No | DB on his back |
| at W.F. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | No | No | covered, miscommunication |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 4 | short | Yes | No | open, no YAC |
| at W.F. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | Yes | well covered on 22-yd lob |
| at W.F. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | No | No | covered, out of bounds, off target |
| at W.F. | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | No | No | open, but throw is too high |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 29 | BLOS | Yes | No | makes DB miss, TD, 29 YAC |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 25 | long | Yes | No | scramble drill, 25-yard comeback |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 14 | med. | Yes | Yes | fade, covered, 1-handed TD |
| at W.F. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | covered, throw off target |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 2 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 2 YAC |
| at W.F. | 1 | 1 | 3 | short | Yes | No | quick outside, DB near him |
| at W.F. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | ? | Yes | back-shldr, covered, low, can't hold |
| Mia. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | not much separation, overthrown |
| Mia. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | No | No | covered, end zone, off target |
| Mia. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | Yes | Yes | covered, back shldr, hand on it |
| Mia. | 1 | 1 | 8 | short | Yes | No | open, 5 YAC |
| Mia. | 1 | 1 | 2 | BLOS | Yes | No | knocked back at the 3, 8 YAC |
| Mia. | 1 | 1 | 7 | short | Yes | No | quick to the flat, 4 YAC |
| Mia. | 0 | 0 | 0 | short | Yes | Yes | end zone flag, covered, interference |
| Mia. | 1 | 1 | 6 | med. | Yes | Yes | fade, covered, 6-yd TD |
| Mia. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | slight separation, overthrown |
| N.Ala. | 1 | 1 | 17 | short | Yes | No | open for 5, 12 YAC with hurdle att |
| N.Ala. | 1 | 1 | 11 | short | Yes | No | open for 5, turns upfield for 7 YAC |
| N.Ala. | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | No | No | open, high throw |
| N.Ala. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | skies above DB but can't hold |
| N.Ala. | 1 | 1 | 24 | long | Yes | No | open, 24 TD |
| at Fla. | 1 | 0 | 0 | short | Yes | Yes | ball, DB show up at same time |
| at Fla. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | Yes | covered, throw was too high |
| at Fla. | 1 | 1 | 24 | short | Yes | No | open for 9, turns upfield for 15 YAC |
| at Fla. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | Yes | covered, 32 att nearly pickd |
| at Fla. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | Yes | Yes | covered, can't make high catch |
| at Fla. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | No | No | covered, off target throw |
| Lsvlle. | 1 | 1 | 4 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 4 YAC |
| Lsvlle. | 1 | 1 | 4 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, crosses field |
| Lsvlle. | 1 | 1 | 6 | BLOS | Yes | No | quick outside, 8 YAC |
| Lsvlle. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | No | open, drops 23-ydr (high throw) |
| Lsvlle. | 1 | 0 | 0 | long | Yes | No | open, drops 30-ydr going OOB |
| Lsvlle. | 1 | 1 | 9 | BLOS | Yes | No | lateral outside, 11 YAC |
| Lsvlle. | 1 | 0 | 0 | med. | No | No | open, miscommunication |
—Ian Allan