The Marvin Harrison Hype Train, I think, is a little out of control. I understand that he’s a promising prospect. There’s a reason he was picked No. 4 overall. But it’s not easy stepping into the league and dominating from Day One.
It’s not unusual to see rookie receivers put up good numbers. Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson were both outstanding in their first seasons. But there are a lot more misses than hits, even with the most coveted of prospects.
In the 32-team era, 28 receivers have been selected with top-10 overall picks. Only one of those guys (Chase) put up top-10 numbers in his first season. Only three others (A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle) were able to finish with top-20 numbers. (That’s using PPR scoring.)
RECEIVERS SELECTED WITH TOP 10 PICKS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2003 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 3 | 66 | 976 | 4 | 186.6 | 22 |
2003 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 2 | 22 | 243 | 3 | 66.0 | 88 |
2004 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 3 | 58 | 780 | 8 | 185.4 | 31 |
2004 | Roy Williams, Det. | 7 | 54 | 817 | 8 | 183.8 | 32 |
2004 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 9 | 27 | 268 | 1 | 63.8 | 93 |
2005 | Braylon Edwards, Cle. | 3 | 32 | 512 | 3 | 101.2 | 67 |
2005 | Troy Williamson, Min. | 7 | 24 | 372 | 2 | 76.0 | 82 |
2005 | Mike Williams, Det. | 10 | 29 | 350 | 1 | 70.0 | 88 |
2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 2 | 48 | 756 | 4 | 158.8 | 38 |
2007 | Ted Ginn, Mia. | 9 | 34 | 420 | 2 | 94.3 | 74 |
2009 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 10 | 48 | 625 | 2 | 122.5 | 60 |
2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 7 | 9 | 124 | 1 | 29.3 | 118 |
2011 | • A.J. Green, Cin. | 4 | 65 | 1,057 | 7 | 218.0 | 17 |
2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 6 | 54 | 959 | 8 | 203.5 | 21 |
2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 5 | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 8 | 40 | 418 | 4 | 132.9 | 53 |
2014 | • Mike Evans, T.B. | 7 | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 4 | 65 | 982 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 4 | 72 | 1,070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 5 | 34 | 375 | 0 | 71.5 | 85 |
2017 | Mike Williams, LAC | 7 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 20.5 | 139 |
2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 199 |
2021 | • Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 5 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
2021 | • Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 6 | 104 | 1,015 | 6 | 247.8 | 12 |
2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 10 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 10 | 83 | 1,103 | 4 | 217.7 | 21 |
2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 8 | 72 | 866 | 4 | 184.6 | 28 |
2024 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 4 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2024 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 6 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2024 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 9 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
So as we’re looking at these current guys – Harrison, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze – some caution seems reasonable.
In the case of Harrison, he’s showing up awfully high in mock drafts. Via ESPN, he’s currently going as the 10th receivers in drafts. It will be tough for Harrison to play well enough to justify that kind of draft position.
I concede that Harrison is likely to lead the Cardinals in receiving, but I’m out at that price tag.
—Ian Allan