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Marvin Harrison

Expectations high for Arizona rookie

The Marvin Harrison Hype Train, I think, is a little out of control. I understand that he’s a promising prospect. There’s a reason he was picked No. 4 overall. But it’s not easy stepping into the league and dominating from Day One.

It’s not unusual to see rookie receivers put up good numbers. Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson were both outstanding in their first seasons. But there are a lot more misses than hits, even with the most coveted of prospects.

In the 32-team era, 28 receivers have been selected with top-10 overall picks. Only one of those guys (Chase) put up top-10 numbers in his first season. Only three others (A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle) were able to finish with top-20 numbers. (That’s using PPR scoring.)

RECEIVERS SELECTED WITH TOP 10 PICKS
YearPlayerPkRecYdsTDPPRRk
2003Andre Johnson, Hou.3669764186.622
2003Charles Rogers, Det.222243366.088
2004Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.3587808185.431
2004Roy Williams, Det.7548178183.832
2004Reggie Williams, Jac.927268163.893
2005Braylon Edwards, Cle.3325123101.267
2005Troy Williamson, Min.724372276.082
2005Mike Williams, Det.1029350170.088
2007Calvin Johnson, Det.2487564158.838
2007Ted Ginn, Mia.934420294.374
2009Michael Crabtree, S.F.10486252122.560
2009Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.79124129.3118
2011• A.J. Green, Cin.4651,0577218.017
2011Julio Jones, Atl.6549598203.521
2012Justin Blackmon, Jac.5648655184.829
2013Tavon Austin, St.L.8404184132.953
2014• Mike Evans, T.B.7681,05112245.113
2014Sammy Watkins, Buff.4659826200.027
2015Amari Cooper, Oak.4721,0706214.721
2015Kevin White, Chi.7000.0--
2017Corey Davis, Ten.534375071.585
2017Mike Williams, LAC71195020.5139
2017John Ross, Cin.90001.2199
2021• Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.5811,45513306.65
2021• Jaylen Waddle, Mia.61041,0156247.812
2021DeVonta Smith, Phil.10649165187.630
2022Garrett Wilson, NYJ10831,1034217.721
2022Drake London, Atl.8728664184.628
2024Marvin Harrison, Ari.4?????
2024Malik Nabers, NYG6?????
2024Rome Odunze, Chi.9?????

So as we’re looking at these current guys – Harrison, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze – some caution seems reasonable.

In the case of Harrison, he’s showing up awfully high in mock drafts. Via ESPN, he’s currently going as the 10th receivers in drafts. It will be tough for Harrison to play well enough to justify that kind of draft position.

I concede that Harrison is likely to lead the Cardinals in receiving, but I’m out at that price tag.

—Ian Allan

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