As the best-ball draft I'm in drifts to the latter stages, rookie quarterbacks come up as possibilities. Not Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, who have already been selected -- everyone knows those guys are going to be Week 1 starters. No, I'm talking about the other first-rounders.
Drake Maye in New England, J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota, and Bo Nix (pictured) in Denver. (Michael Penix won't be starting over Kirk Cousins, so I'll leave him out.) Each of these other guys has competition, and in at least two cases, they'll probably open as backups. But don't bet against them starting most of the season anyway.
Draft a quarterback in the top half of the first round, and the temptation is to throw him into the lineup sooner rather than later. Year after year, that's how things play out.
Since 2010, there have been 34 previous quarterbacks drafted in the top 15 picks -- about 2.5 per year, on average. Of those 34, slightly under half (14) have been full-season starters. Twelve more have started at least 10 games (26 of 34, 76 percent). Nearly half (3) of the eight guys who didn't make at least 10 starts probably or definitely would have had they not been injured (Watson, Lance and Richardson last year).
Quarterbacks selected in the top 15 since 2010 and their rookie numbers are shown below, sorted by starts that season. Players who finished in the top 12 at the position, starters in typical leagues, are in bold. Five of them did it, while two others (Winston and Stroud) just missed. Watson and Richardson would have likely got there had they stayed healthy.
| QBS IN THE TOP 15 PICKS, 2010-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | St | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
| 1 | 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 334 | 2 | 22 |
| 15 | 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 3801 | 22 | 129 | 0 | 17 |
| 1 | 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 253 | 0 | 23 |
| 1 | 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 3782 | 16 | 150 | 2 | 22 |
| 1 | 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4042 | 22 | 213 | 6 | 13 |
| 1 | 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4374 | 23 | 255 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 3294 | 12 | 211 | 2 | 24 |
| 1 | 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 4051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 3 |
| 1 | 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 3512 | 18 | 63 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | 2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 15 | 4108 | 23 | 167 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 3200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 2214 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 2334 | 9 | 185 | 4 | 30 |
| 1 | 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 2865 | 17 | 138 | 1 | 24 |
| 10 | 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 13 | 2278 | 11 | 138 | 0 | 32 |
| 3 | 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 2908 | 11 | 419 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 3027 | 24 | 279 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 2193 | 7 | 248 | 2 | 29 |
| 2 | 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 2818 | 19 | 252 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 2074 | 10 | 631 | 8 | 22 |
| 11 | 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 1870 | 7 | 420 | 2 | 31 |
| 1 | 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 2688 | 13 | 142 | 3 | 25 |
| 12 | 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 1853 | 13 | 219 | 0 | 28 |
| 5 | 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 1814 | 11 | 109 | 3 | 34 |
| 15 | 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 1365 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 33 |
| 1 | 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 1089 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 37 |
| 12 | 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 1699 | 19 | 269 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 4 | 577 | 3 | 136 | 4 | 43 |
| 3 | 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2 | 603 | 5 | 168 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 284 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 53 |
| 8 | 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 0 | 542 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 44 |
I expect Jacoby Brissett to open as the starter in New England, and Sam Darnold to open as the starter in Minnesota. That's what all reports indicate. And at least based on one report I've seen, Jarrett Stidham might beat out Bo Nix (though I kind of doubt it).
But there's a strong likelihood that these rookies will all find themselves starting for a majority of the season. I'll order them Nix, McCarthy, Maye in terms of likelihood, and probably how I'll be considering drafting them as my third quarterback in this best-ball league. Betting against them doesn't seem likely to pay off.
--Andy Richardson