I've said some nice things here about Zack Moss in the past. I still believe them, but I'm going to have to tamp the brakes a little bit. It sounds like Chase Brown is making a strong case to be Cincinnati's best running back.
We can't say for sure, but there have been reports of last year's fifth-rounder getting a majority of the first-team reps in camp. Moss is there and apparently healthy, but it sounds like a legit competition to start.
Brown was just a fifth-round pick last year, but let's not hold that against him. Everyone remembers Kyren Williams, a fifth-rounder in 2022, helping take the Rams to the playoffs last year. And he's not the only recent fifth-rounder to show up with strong numbers in his second season.
Over the previous 10 years, there have been 33 running backs selected in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. Set aside a handful of fullbacks and a few guys who almost immediately dropped out of the league, and I came up with 25 guys who were on rosters getting opportunities to carry the ball in year 2.
About 1 in 4 (six) finished with top-25 numbers in their second seasons. Williams was the best of them, but Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard and Aaron Jones also went on to have strong seasons and/or multiple strong seasons. Jerome Ford and Alex Collins have had their moments. There have been some viable players.
Table shows second-year numbers from fifth-round running backs the last 10 years, sorted by ranking in PPR leagues that season.
| FIFTH ROUND RUNNING BACKS, YEAR 2 (2013-PRESENT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Next | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2022 | 2023 | Kyren Williams, LAR | 1144 | 32 | 206 | 15 | 7 |
| 2015 | 2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 1272 | 27 | 151 | 8 | 11 |
| 2016 | 2017 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1122 | 23 | 125 | 9 | 15 |
| 2022 | 2023 | Jerome Ford, Cle. | 813 | 44 | 319 | 9 | 16 |
| 2016 | 2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 973 | 23 | 187 | 6 | 19 |
| 2017 | 2018 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 728 | 26 | 206 | 9 | 24 |
| 2022 | 2023 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 683 | 18 | 193 | 5 | 36 |
| 2013 | 2014 | Denard Robinson, Jac. | 582 | 23 | 124 | 4 | 38 |
| 2018 | 2019 | Jaylen Samuels, Pitt. | 175 | 47 | 305 | 2 | 45 |
| 2022 | 2023 | Ty Chandler, Min. | 461 | 21 | 159 | 3 | 48 |
| 2021 | 2022 | Kenneth Gainwell, Phil. | 240 | 23 | 169 | 4 | 54 |
| 2014 | 2015 | Chris Thompson, Was. | 216 | 35 | 240 | 2 | 55 |
| 2016 | 2017 | DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 153 | 34 | 197 | 3 | 59 |
| 2013 | 2014 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 293 | 18 | 152 | 1 | 68 |
| 2018 | 2019 | Jordan Wilkins, Ind. | 307 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 70 |
| 2013 | 2014 | Stepfan Taylor, Ari. | 208 | 11 | 79 | 4 | 71 |
| 2013 | 2014 | Joseph Randle, Dall. | 343 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 74 |
| 2016 | 2017 | Wendell Smallwood, Phil. | 174 | 13 | 103 | 1 | 80 |
| 2015 | 2016 | Cameron Artis-Payne, Car. | 144 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 94 |
| 2016 | 2017 | Paul Perkins, NYG | 90 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 97 |
| 2017 | 2018 | Brian Hill, Atl. | 157 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 100 |
| 2017 | 2018 | T.J. Logan, Ari. | 2 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 112 |
| 2012 | 2013 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 63 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 132 |
| 2017 | 2018 | Jeremy McNichols, 2TM | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 155 |
| 2019 | 2020 | Qadree Ollison, Atl. | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 |
| 2023 | 2024 | Chase Brown, Cin. | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| 2023 | 2024 | Eric Gray, NYG | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| 2023 | 2024 | Evan Hull, Ind. | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| 2023 | 2024 | Israel Abanikanda, NYJ | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
While Brown is the guy currently contending to start, he's not the only fifth-rounder from a year ago with the potential to come into value this year. I have Eric Gray on a dynasty roster, and he's vying to be the No. 2 for the Giants behind Devin Singletary. (He's competing with a 2024 fifth-rounder, Tyrone Tracy.) I'll give Singletary his due, he's starting, but it's in the realm of possibility that Gray pushes for a larger workload than Giants No. 2s behind Saquon Barkley have earned.
Indianapolis' Evan Hull is battling Trey Sermon for the No. 2 job behind Jonathan Taylor. Too early to call that one. Similarly, Israel Abanikanda is competing for work behind Breece Hall. That job is also open.
Back to Brown. Cost is always a key factor, but if people are slow to the possibility of him beating out Moss, there's the potential of him being a nice pick in fantasy leagues. (Or maybe Moss will turn out to be the value, if no one believes he can win that job -- he can.) The Bengals have also been having Brown run drills with the wide receivers, and using him on kick returns, both of which speak to their desire to get him on the field (but cast doubt about whether they see him as their starting running back).
Regardless, it's looking like a situation where there's considerable risk in relying too heavily on either one. I'm a lot cooler on Moss, and more interested in Brown, than I was at this time last week.
--Andy Richardson
