Mamas, let your babies grow up to be quarterbacks. Those guys are now signing deals averaging over $50 million per year, and it's one thing when Patrick Mahomes does it. Now we've got Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love doing it. Nice work if you can get it.
Love not only rode the bench for three seasons, but eight games into last year his NFL future looked very much in doubt. He was averaging 215 passing yards and 1.5 TD passes per game. Now he's the highest-paid player in league history. (For now.) Tagovailoa, meanwhile, looked like a risky bet to finish any game he started a little over a year ago, with some scary concussion incidents. He too is a $50 million/season player.
On our board, we're more interested in investing in Love than Tagovailoa. The Packers quarterback seems to have a lot of young, developing talent around him, and unlike Tagovailoa he'll help himself with his legs. He ran for 247 yards and 4 TDs last season. Moreover, he got a lot better as the year went on, while Tagovailoa and Miami's offense went the other way.
Consider first half versus second-half numbers. First-half Tagovailoa was a top-7 quarterback on a per game basis, averaging 290 yards and over 2 TD passes per game, averaging over 23 fantasy points. Second-half Tagovailoa averaged 38 fewer passing yards and nearly 1 fewer TD per game, and 5 fewer fantasy points.
Love went the other way, averaging 56 more passing yards and 3/4 of a touchdown pass per contest, and nearly 4 more points per week.
Table shows per game numbers from regular starting quarterbacks a year ago, sorted by fantasy points, with Love and Tagovailoa's numbers split into first- and second-half production.
| QUARTERBACKS PER GAME, 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Pass | TD | Pts |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 253 | 1.71 | 28.2 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 17 | 227 | 1.35 | 25.6 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 16 | 230 | 1.50 | 24.6 |
| Love (2nd), G.B. | 9 | 271 | 2.22 | 24.6 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 17 | 266 | 2.12 | 24.1 |
| Kirk Cousins, Min. | 8 | 291 | 2.25 | 23.9 |
| Tagovailoa (1st), Mia. | 9 | 290 | 2.11 | 23.3 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 16 | 268 | 1.94 | 22.8 |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 15 | 274 | 1.53 | 22.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 16 | 261 | 1.69 | 22.3 |
| Kyler Murray, Ari. | 8 | 225 | 1.25 | 21.8 |
| Justin Fields, Chi. | 13 | 197 | 1.23 | 21.7 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 13 | 241 | 1.54 | 21.7 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 269 | 1.76 | 21.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 16 | 251 | 1.31 | 21.5 |
| Russell Wilson, Den. | 15 | 205 | 1.73 | 20.9 |
| Love (1st), G.B. | 8 | 215 | 1.50 | 20.9 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 15 | 264 | 1.60 | 20.3 |
| Sam Howell, Was. | 17 | 232 | 1.24 | 20.2 |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 17 | 238 | 1.65 | 20.0 |
| Joshua Dobbs, 2TM | 13 | 190 | 1.00 | 19.9 |
| Jake Browning, Cin. | 9 | 215 | 1.33 | 19.8 |
| Geno Smith, Sea. | 15 | 242 | 1.33 | 19.2 |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 231 | 1.50 | 18.4 |
| Deshaun Watson, Cle. | 6 | 186 | 1.17 | 18.3 |
| Tagovailoa (2nd), Mia. | 8 | 252 | 1.25 | 18.1 |
| Derek Carr, N.O. | 17 | 228 | 1.47 | 17.8 |
| Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 15 | 189 | 0.80 | 16.2 |
| Gardner Minshew, Ind. | 17 | 194 | 0.88 | 15.1 |
| Will Levis, Ten. | 9 | 201 | 0.89 | 15.1 |
| Aidan O'Connell, L.V. | 11 | 202 | 1.09 | 15.1 |
| Zach Wilson, NYJ | 12 | 189 | 0.67 | 14.2 |
| Mac Jones, N.E. | 11 | 193 | 0.91 | 14.1 |
| Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 180 | 0.69 | 13.6 |
Ultimately, Miami and Green Bay had little choice but to pay their guys. And let's give Tagovailoa his due: he's got a longer track record of production than Love does. Would be unfair to suggest Tagovailoa is more likely to underperform in the future than Love, who got paid on basically a half-season of work.
But in fantasy leagues, Love looks like the safer pick to keep things going in 2024. Tagovailoa has more injury risk (concussions), won't help himself as a runner, and needs to prove that first-half Tua was more of what we'll get in 2024 than second-half Tua.
--Andy Richardson
