I truly believe that kickers are somewhat underappreciated in fantasy football. I understand there isn't a ton of difference between a great one and a decent one, but that small difference can put you in the playoffs. A couple more points could mean an extra win or two, and that often is the difference between making the postseason and starting the offseason early. So if there's a chance you can give yourself an advantage with a kicker, it makes sense to pay a little attention.
To be fair, you can completely ignore kickers until the very end of your draft and still get a good one. And you can draft what you think is a good one and get a dud. Or they could get injured. Or the team could fall apart. So, like every other position, there are no guarantees here. Fortunately, we do know a few things to gauge that might give you an edge.
You want a kicker from a good team, but not too good. You want them to face some good competition, but not too good. You want them to play in good weather, and there’s no such thing as too good. That factor gives dome kickers a boost, in my opinion.
So I see two teams that could be worth targeting at kicker aside from the regulars (the guys everyone ranks at the top of most lists): The Falcons and Lions. It helps that nobody else thinks their kickers will be any good, so they might just be sitting there at the end of your draft.
Atlanta has a reliable leg in Younghoe Koo and should be very competitive in the cauldron of mediocrity that is the NFC South. They play four of their first five games at home and play 11 dome games through week 16. If you believe the team will be better with Kirk Cousins, but not so good that they dominate their opponents, this could be the team for you.
The Lions are a much better team than the Falcons, but don't even have a definite starter at kicker yet. The injury to Michael Badgley means they might have a no-name at the position who may or may not finish the season. No offense to Jake Bates, or the other UFL guy they tried out, but these aren’t superstars. Still, if somebody can finish the season, it could be a great one. Here's a list of the games the Lions will be playing outdoors before your fantasy playoffs start:
Sunday, November 3 at Green Bay
That's it. They have eight home games, plus road contests against Arizona (dome), Dallas (dome), Minnesota (dome), Houston (dome), and Indianapolis (dome). Add in the road game at Lambeau Field, and that's Detroit's schedule through week 15. The Lions are a great team with good opponents and perfect kicking conditions for nearly all of their games. What's not to love?
Well, the coach, of course. He's famous (perhaps infamous) due to his willingness to go for it on fourth down. That could cut down on many opportunities, and it's just one reason why the Lions aren't considered a good kicking option for fantasy. I don’t think they’ll stop going for it when they need short yardage, but if they feel good about their kicker, I think they’ll be utilizing them more than people expect. It’s a big “if” with the injury, though.
As to who their kicker will be, I have no idea. Bates? Maybe. Szmyt? Maybe. Some other guy off the street? Maybe. A carousel? Hopefully not, but possible. So as much as I really like the Lions' situation, there’s a lot of risk. I would have felt a lot better recommending them if Badgley was the definite starter. Koo carries some risk as well. But if a guy from these teams produces very well at kicker, I wouldn't be surprised.
Keep in mind that what I wrote goes against most rankings, and will continue to do so up until draft day. If you like sticking with the consensus, ignore this advice. But also keep in mind that you probably won't have to reach very far to get them, either. Most of your opponents won't think about kickers at all until the very end of the draft, so they might be there for your last pick, anyway. I'm just saying to keep these guys in mind instead of just taking anybody. If you look back on the season and see a couple losses by just a point or two, you'll wish you had paid a little more attention to the position. And if it doesn't work out, the waiver wire could have gems just sitting there. Kicker is one of the easier positions to replace.
Too many NFL teams don't pay much attention to their kicker, and pay for it every year. I'm not sure when they'll learn, but I hope you get the right kicker for you on draft day.
What kicker do you think has a good chance to surprise with solid production? Do you care about the position at all? How early would you take one? Share your thoughts below.
