The tough part of this time of year is injuries can come out of nowhere. You wouldn't think big names would be going down at team practices, but just yesterday both Justin Herbert (foot) and DeAndre Hopkins (knee) picked up ailments that could cost them a month or more.
The Hopkins one seems to have the most fantasy ramifications. It's a 4-6 week knee injury, which suggests something along the lines of a sprained MCL. Hopkins was in line to be the Titans' top receiver, but he's 32 years old. It would be optimistic to think he'll be at the lower end of that injury timetable. Maybe he's healthy at the start of the season, but more likely (it seems to me) that he'll need to either miss or be limited for a game or two.
This is a plus for Calvin Ridley, who might be more of a go-to early on. And it has me wondering if Treylon Burks might finally make an impact. Burks is a former first-round pick, drafted with the selection the Titans got from trading A.J. Brown to the Eagles. In a word, Ouch. Just paying Brown would have been a much better choice no matter how things work out with Burks.
Anyway. The Titans also have Tyler Boyd on the roster, but the ideal would be for Boyd to be the No. 3, with Burks, should Hopkins miss time, stepping in as a starter. What are the odds of a player who's done as little as Burks has his first two seasons breaking out in Year 3?
I took a look at all wide receivers drafted in the first round this century who haven't done anything noteworthy their first two years in the league. I set 500 receiving yards as the threshold, which gave me 28 total players. Burks isn't the only first-rounder from the 2022 draft who's been under 500 yards in each of his first two seasons; Lions wideout Jameson Williams also fits the profile. How did they fare in their 3rd seasons?
The numbers aren't good, but at least it's not impossible. Of those previous 26 first-round wide receivers, about a fifth of them (5) put up top 30 numbers (PPR) in their third seasons. So even if you finish under 500 receiving yards for one reason or another in each of your first two seasons, you could still be the next Santana Moss (1105 yards and 10 TDs in year 3, finishing 9th in PPR leagues) or at least Nelson Agholor (768 yards and 8 TDs, 23rd).
But the odds are heavily against it. Twenty of 26 didn't even make it into the top 60 at the position in year 3. That's a group that includes former Giant and current KC wideout Kadarius Toney, for those holding out hope in dynasty leagues. Looking at all of those players, Cordarrelle Patterson is the only one who fashioned any kind of a career, and it took a position switch and special teams contribution to happen.
Table shows all first-round wide receivers this century under 500 receiving yards in each of their first two seasons, sorted by performance in PPR leagues in Year 3.
| LOW-PRODUCING 1ST-RD WIDE RECEIVERS, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Yds(1) | Yds(2) | Yds(3) | TD(3) | Rk(3) |
| 2001 | 16 | Santana Moss, NYJ | 40 | 433 | 1105 | 10 | 9 |
| 2015 | 20 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 283 | 365 | 768 | 8 | 23 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 0 | 289 | 722 | 9 | 26 |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 418 | 242 | 473 | 10 | 27 |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 124 | 366 | 975 | 4 | 28 |
| 2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 268 | 445 | 616 | 4 | 44 |
| 2001 | 25 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 283 | 105 | 498 | 2 | 69 |
| 2017 | 9 | John Ross, Cin. | 0 | 210 | 506 | 3 | 74 |
| 2001 | 8 | David Terrell, Chi. | 415 | 127 | 361 | 1 | 81 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 15 | 200 | 302 | 1 | 94 |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson, Minn. | 372 | 455 | 240 | 1 | 102 |
| 2021 | 20 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 420 | 171 | 169 | 1 | 108 |
| 2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 243 | 0 | 197 | 1 | 110 |
| 2020 | 21 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 396 | 299 | 104 | 1 | 138 |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 188 | 59 | 52 | 0 | 140 |
| 2019 | 32 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 105 | 309 | 184 | 0 | 143 |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams, Det. | 350 | 99 | 90 | 0 | 143 |
| 2012 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 0 | 130 | 93 | 0 | 145 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 499 | 77 | 0 | 145 |
| 2013 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 469 | 384 | 10 | 2 | 160 |
| 2016 | 15 | Corey Coleman, Clev. | 413 | 305 | 71 | 0 | 165 |
| 2011 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 254 | 325 | 28 | 0 | 171 |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 187 | 6 | 0 | 189 |
| 2004 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | out of league |
| 2000 | 29 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 154 | 0 | 0 | 0 | out of league |
| 2020 | 12 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 452 | 469 | 0 | 0 | out of league |
| 2022 | 12 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 41 | 354 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | 18 | Treylon Burks, Tenn. | 444 | 221 | ? | ? | ? |
With Jameson Williams, there have been extenuating circumstances (injury and suspension). Reports out of camp have been very positive, which could be just coach speak, or it could mean a breakout is coming. I'd consider a flier on him if he's available late enough; somebody has to be the No. 2 wide receiver in a strong Detroit offense.
With Burks, well, it would take a lot for me to get too optimistic. History and odds are against it, and if Hopkins is healthy, Burks might be no better than the No. 4 in a passing game that looks iffy anyway. I don't imagine I'll be spending a pick on him, even if Hopkins looks iffy for Week 1. Pretty rare that the light comes on in Year 3 for guys who haven't shown much their first two seasons.
--Andy Richardson
