It's the last thing anyone wants to hear. Puka Nacua left Sunday's practice a little over an hour into team drills, and was later spotted on the sidelines with a bag of ice wrapped around his right knee. "Panic is currently unwarranted" says Rotoworld's blurb. Is it?
The Monday morning update from Adam Schefter includes both "not serious" and "week to week". That's a pretty big gray area; it's not serious, but it's a multi-week concern. A reasonable guess is a knee bruise; perhaps he banged it with a defender while running a route in practice. If so, with the season five weeks away, no big deal -- he should be fine. But let's consider all scenarios, including the possibility it's a serious injury, and we all need to take a close look at what's left for the Rams should last year's rookie sensation miss extended time.
Most notably, Cooper Kupp. He's 31 years old now, which as we've talked about, doesn't offer a great track record for wide receivers putting up top numbers. It happens, but the odds are heavily against it. Last year, at age 30 and with Nacua having a breakout season, Kupp averaged 5 catches a game -- very good, but not otherworldly.
But not too long ago (2021 and 2022), before Nacua showed up, Kupp was the best wide receiver in the game, by a wide margin. He missed eight games in 2022, but look at the per game numbers. Kupp played in 26 games those two seasons, and averaged 8.5 receptions, 106 yards and nearly a touchdown per game. That's 24.7 points per week in PPR leagues -- 4 points more than anyone else.
| WIDE RECEIVERS PER GAME, 2021-2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | No | Yds | Run | TD | PPR |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 26 | 8.5 | 106.1 | 2.7 | .90 | 24.7 |
| Davante Adams, L.V. | 33 | 6.8 | 93.0 | .0 | .76 | 20.6 |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 34 | 6.9 | 100.7 | 1.1 | .57 | 20.5 |
| JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 28 | 5.9 | 88.4 | 1.0 | .79 | 19.6 |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 33 | 6.9 | 89.3 | 3.9 | .52 | 19.3 |
| Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 33 | 6.4 | 80.4 | -.1 | .64 | 18.2 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 29 | 4.6 | 70.2 | 20.6 | .66 | 17.6 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 29 | 7.0 | 73.3 | .9 | .32 | 16.3 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 26 | 6.6 | 72.7 | .3 | .38 | 16.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 33 | 5.6 | 74.6 | 3.7 | .45 | 16.2 |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | 30 | 5.0 | 78.8 | .2 | .53 | 16.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. | 19 | 5.6 | 67.8 | .0 | .58 | 15.8 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 31 | 4.9 | 69.6 | .3 | .65 | 15.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 33 | 5.4 | 71.8 | .9 | .45 | 15.4 |
| Tee Higgins, Cin. | 29 | 5.1 | 73.1 | .0 | .47 | 15.2 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 32 | 4.9 | 69.0 | .3 | .53 | 15.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 33 | 5.9 | 62.8 | 4.7 | .38 | 15.0 |
| Mike Williams, LAC | 29 | 4.8 | 70.4 | .0 | .46 | 14.6 |
| Amari Cooper, Cle. | 32 | 4.6 | 63.3 | .0 | .53 | 14.1 |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | 34 | 4.9 | 59.3 | .2 | .53 | 14.0 |
| Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 33 | 5.8 | 61.9 | 2.4 | .27 | 13.9 |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | 33 | 5.7 | 60.8 | 2.2 | .31 | 13.9 |
| Marquise Brown, Ari. | 28 | 5.6 | 61.3 | .2 | .32 | 13.7 |
| Christian Kirk, Jac. | 34 | 4.7 | 61.5 | .6 | .38 | 13.2 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 34 | 4.7 | 62.1 | .0 | .36 | 13.1 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 34 | 4.5 | 66.0 | 1.2 | .29 | 13.0 |
| Brandin Cooks, Hou. | 29 | 5.1 | 59.9 | 1.0 | .31 | 13.0 |
| DJ Moore, Car. | 34 | 4.6 | 60.1 | 3.0 | .33 | 12.9 |
| Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 27 | 5.1 | 50.7 | .1 | .41 | 12.7 |
| Adam Thielen, Min. | 30 | 4.6 | 48.1 | .2 | .54 | 12.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 31 | 4.8 | 53.9 | -.1 | .29 | 12.0 |
Kupp is a couple of years older now, but if Nacua does in fact miss time, I'm going to be taking on a little age risk and selecting Kupp as my top receiver in round 2, maybe early in round 2 if I'm picking there. (In our latest update we have Kupp just outside the top 20 overall in PPR leagues, and that's assuming the Nacua injury is no big deal.)
The other interesting player is Demarcus Robinson. We like him anyway, currently slotting him 52nd in PPR leagues as the Rams' No. 3. Robinson was awfully impressive in that role down the stretch last year. In a five-week span from Week 12 through 16, he caught 21 passes for 319 yards, with touchdowns in four of those games. That's an average of nearly 15 points per week in PPR leagues, as a No. 3. If the Nacua injury looks significant, Robinson reasonably moves up into the top 40 at the position.
We know Nacua wasn't going to be playing in the exhibition games anyway, and the team isn't required to give many details about injuries at this point. I'm willing to take "not serious" and run with it. But really, there's a lot of guesswork here.
If I were drafting this week, I'd be a little more hesitant to select Nacua. Kupp moves up a handful of spots in the overall rankings. And Robinson is well worth selecting as a possible starter.
Hopefully, panic is indeed unwarranted.
--Andy Richardson
