Bo Nix has sure looked good, directing six scoring drives. But will preseason success translate into regular season results? It’s a different game in September.
The numbers have been terrific. He’s completed 23 of 30 passes for 205 yards, with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. He also hasn’t taken any sacks – he’s mobile, and he’s decisively getting rid of the ball.
Seven possessions into the preseason, the Broncos haven’t punted on his watch. Lucas Krull lost a fumble to end one drive, but the other six have resulted in 3 touchdowns and 3 field goals. The Broncos have seemingly found their guy, and they’ve got one of the Jedi coaches working with him.
At the same time, it’s preseason football, which carries even less significance now than it has in the past. And with the stats in front of me, there’s not much of a correlation between playing well in the preseason and continuing that success into the real games.
Both Nix and J.J. McCarthy have passer ratings just short of 117. In the last 10 years, the only quarterbacks who’ve put up even better numbers in the preseason have all been guys who eventually became regretted picks: Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Kenny Pickett.
Six other rookie quarterbacks (among those picked in the first round) have had passer ratings over 100 in their first preseason, but none of them were viable fantasy options as rookies. (Patrick Mahomes might have been, but they left him behind Alex Smith that season.) The others: Marcus Mariota, Mitchell Trubisky, Trevor Lawrence and Blake Bortles.
Deshaun Watson and C.J. Stroud, meanwhile, both struggled in their initial preseason, then both put up great numbers in the real games. What you see in August isn’t necessarily what you’ll get in the real games.
In the chart below, five quarterbacks are tagged with black dots. Those are the five who started at least half the season averaged top-15 overall numbers (including rushing). Watson, Lamar Jackson and Anthony Richardson might have finished with black dots, but none started enough games. (Those three all had lesser preseasons.)
I’m still mulling where to stick Nix. I like the structure of the offense, and I like that he’s working with Sean Payton. As things stand, I’m thinking he’s a second quarterback in typical formats.
| PRESEASON PASSER RATING / FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | QB | Att | Com | Yds | Pct | TD | Int | Rating | Pt/G |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 20 | 15 | 191 | 75.0 | 2 | 0 | 137.7 | 31th |
| 2019 | • Daniel Jones, NYG | 34 | 29 | 416 | 85.3 | 2 | 0 | 137.3 | 8th |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 36 | 29 | 261 | 80.6 | 3 | 0 | 124.7 | 30th |
| 2024 | J.J. McCarthy, Min. | 17 | 11 | 188 | 64.7 | 2 | 1 | 116.8 | -- |
| 2024 | Bo Nix, Den. | 30 | 23 | 205 | 76.7 | 2 | 0 | 116.7 | -- |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 49 | 30 | 283 | 61.2 | 5 | 0 | 111.2 | 21th |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 51 | 32 | 521 | 62.7 | 2 | 0 | 110.0 | 27th |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 54 | 34 | 390 | 63.0 | 4 | 0 | 109.3 | -- |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 44 | 31 | 323 | 70.5 | 2 | 0 | 106.5 | 30th |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 53 | 36 | 364 | 67.9 | 3 | 0 | 106.2 | 29th |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 30 | 21 | 326 | 70.0 | 1 | 1 | 102.9 | 16th |
| 2024 | Jayden Daniels, Was. | 15 | 12 | 123 | 80.0 | 0 | 0 | 100.8 | -- |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 52 | 36 | 388 | 69.2 | 1 | 0 | 97.3 | 26th |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 49 | 30 | 276 | 61.2 | 2 | 0 | 90.2 | 29th |
| 2018 | • Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 61 | 35 | 501 | 57.4 | 2 | 1 | 88.2 | 11th |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 24 | 14 | 129 | 58.3 | 1 | 0 | 87.0 | 27th |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 68 | 40 | 458 | 58.8 | 4 | 2 | 86.5 | -- |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 45 | 29 | 244 | 64.4 | 2 | 1 | 83.9 | 27th |
| 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 41 | 19 | 276 | 46.3 | 3 | 1 | 83.0 | -- |
| 2018 | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 44 | 24 | 210 | 54.5 | 2 | 0 | 82.6 | 13th |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 29 | 16 | 148 | 55.2 | 1 | 0 | 80.8 | 32th |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 20 | 10 | 170 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 79.2 | -- |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ari. | 36 | 23 | 193 | 63.9 | 0 | 0 | 77.7 | 13th |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 68 | 34 | 408 | 50.0 | 3 | 1 | 77.3 | -- |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | 59 | 30 | 296 | 50.8 | 2 | 0 | 76.7 | -- |
| 2024 | Michael Penix, Atl. | 16 | 9 | 104 | 56.3 | 0 | 0 | 76.0 | -- |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 58 | 32 | 409 | 55.2 | 2 | 2 | 74.6 | -- |
| 2024 | Drake Maye, N.E. | 14 | 8 | 66 | 57.1 | 0 | 0 | 69.3 | -- |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 56 | 29 | 397 | 51.8 | 0 | 1 | 67.3 | -- |
| 2023 | • C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 20 | 11 | 89 | 55.0 | 1 | 1 | 62.3 | 10th |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 49 | 22 | 232 | 44.9 | 2 | 2 | 55.8 | -- |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 47 | 23 | 311 | 48.9 | 0 | 2 | 52.7 | 17th |
| 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 29 | 13 | 145 | 44.8 | 0 | 1 | 45.9 | -- |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 24 | 12 | 89 | 50.0 | 0 | 1 | 41.8 | 27th |
—Ian Allan