While it’s nice to get a look at rookie running backs in the preseason, it’s also important not to read too much into a brief glimpse at a practice game. Neither Jahmyr Gibbs nor DeVon Achane, after all, averaged better than 3.3 yards per carry in August last year. Achane in particular looked pretty ordinary.
These are practice games, after all. There are no game plans, with subpar play possible on both sides of the ball. More important than the production, I think, is not what the player does but how he’s being used (is he buried with the backups deep in the second half?)
Gone are the days of rookie running backs logging big workloads in the preseason, making it clear to all that they were going to be hitting the ground running. Alfred Morris, as one example, ran for 195 yards and a touchdown as a rookie in the preseason; we’re not getting that kind of look anymore.
Below see the list of the 41 rookie running backs who’ve finished with top-30 numbers in the last 10 years (using PPR scoring). And for each, I’m showing his rushing stats from his first preseason.
I see 12 who averaged 5.0 yards per carry, and I’ve got them tagged with black dots. I see eight who ran for over 120 yards in the preseason, and I’ve got them in bold (that hasn’t happened in the last five years).
I see three rookies (among these 41) who managed both, averaging at least 5 yards per carry and running for at least 120 yards. None of those three ended up having great careers – Andre Williams, Jeremy Langford, Tarik Cohen.
| PRESEASON RUSHING FOR ROOKIES WHO FINISHED WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd | PPR | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 2 | 10th | 41 | 190 | 4.6 | 0 |
| 2014 | Branden Oliver, S.D. | FA | 26th | 35 | 161 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 2014 | • Andre Williams, NYG | 4 | 27th | 38 | 195 | 5.1 | 2 |
| 2014 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 3 | 30th | 43 | 124 | 2.9 | 0 |
| 2015 | David Johnson, Ari. | 3 | 7th | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1 | 9th | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2015 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 3 | 24th | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 2 | 28th | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
| 2015 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 4 | 29th | 35 | 88 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 2015 | • Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 4 | 30th | 28 | 153 | 5.5 | 0 |
| 2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1 | 2nd | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 5 | 10th | 36 | 173 | 4.8 | 1 |
| 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 4 | 29th | 21 | 60 | 2.9 | 0 |
| 2017 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 3 | 3rd | 9 | 96 | 10.7 | 1 |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 3 | 4th | 18 | 79 | 4.4 | 0 |
| 2017 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1 | 9th | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1 | 10th | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 2017 | • Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 4 | 28th | 19 | 121 | 6.4 | 0 |
| 2018 | • Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1 | 2nd | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| 2018 | • Phillip Lindsay, Den. | FA | 13th | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 2 | 17th | 45 | 140 | 3.1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 4 | 28th | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 2 | 15th | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| 2019 | • Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1 | 21th | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| 2019 | • David Montgomery, Chi. | 3 | 24th | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| 2020 | Taylor, Ind. (Covid) | 2 | 6th | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2020 | Robinson, Jac. (Covid) | FA | 7th | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2020 | Gibson, Was. (Covid) | 3 | 14th | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2020 | Swift, Det. (Covid) | 2 | 16th | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2020 | Edwards-Helaire, K.C. (Covid) | 1 | 22nd | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2020 | Dobbins, Balt. (Covid) | 2 | 24th | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1 | 3rd | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 2 | 17th | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| 2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 6 | 26th | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| 2021 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 4 | 29th | 24 | 86 | 3.6 | 0 |
| 2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 2 | 18th | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| 2022 | • Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 4 | 25th | 11 | 86 | 7.8 | 1 |
| 2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 5 | 30th | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| 2023 | • Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 1 | 8th | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| 2023 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 1 | 10th | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| 2023 | DeVon Achane, Mia. | 3 | 25th | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
The overall lay of the land numbers suggest there will be about four rookie running backs this year finishing in the top 30 statistically. There have been at least three in each of the last 10 years.
Typically with rookie runners, about half of the guys finishing with top-30 numbers are players who were selected in the first or second round. In the chart below, 10 of the 41 backs were first-round picks, while nine came from the second.
But there are slightly more players who were more lightly regarded. Seven came from the third round, eight from the fourth, and three weren’t drafted at all. (Just three were selected in either the fifth or sixth round).
—Ian Allan