We were already in on Khalil Shakir, figuring he had a good chance to be Buffalo's No. 1 wide receiver this season. Recent developments make it even more certain that Shakir is going to have a big, big role, especially early on.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling leaving the last exhibition with a neck injury, but that wasn't necessarily a major development for the depth chart; MVS wasn't necessarily going to make the team. But free-agent signing Curtis Samuel (pictured) did figure to be one of the top 3 wide receivers, and maybe he still will be. But looks very iffy for the start of the season at a minimum, due to a turf-toe injury. They're calling him week-to-week. The season is less than three weeks away.
Top pick Keon Coleman is going to be one of the top 2, and probably Mack Hollins will need to be a factor. But Shakir is definitely going to be relied upon for a big share of the passing game.
That's nothing new, though; he was busy late last year, perhaps helping convince the team he was ready for an expanded role. He caught 6 for 105 in the Week 18 win in Miami, then caught touchdowns in both playoff games, including a really remarkable one against Kansas City. Ten catches for 75 yards and those scores in the two contests. His play down the stretch doubtless made moving on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis easier.
Shakir was also impressively efficient with his opportunities last season. Most notably, he caught over 86 percent of the passes sent his way. That was the best catch rate by a first- or second-year wideout (minimum 40 targets) in the last 10 years.
There have been 31 other wide receivers in the past decade to catch at least 70 percent of the passes thrown their way in one of their first two seasons. I thought I'd see how they fared one year later. There have been some success stories.
Table shows the 32 wideouts to reach that catch rate in one of their first two seasons since 2014. That includes three other players last year: another second-year guy, Wan'Dale Robinson, and a pair of rookies (Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers) we're also higher than most on this season.
Of the other 28 guys, over a third (10) put up top 20 numbers in PPR leagues a year later. Eight of them ranked in the top 10 at the position. I'm not suggesting Shakir is headed for those kind of numbers, but a pretty nice success rate for guys who have shown some competency/efficiency in their offenses those first two seasons.
| HIGH CATCH RATE WIDEOUTS, ONE YEAR LATER (2014-2023) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Ctch | Next | Rk |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 69 | 53 | 550 | 10.4 | 4 | 76.8% | 78-1173-8 | 10 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 112 | 84 | 758 | 9.0 | 5 | 75.0% | 94-1136-4 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kenny Stills, N.O. | 83 | 63 | 931 | 14.8 | 3 | 75.9% | 27-440-3 | 82 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 14.3 | 12 | 70.0% | 101-1367-10 | 4 |
| 2014 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 44 | 31 | 242 | 7.8 | 3 | 70.5% | 52-473-10 | 27 |
| 2015 | Bryan Walters, Jac. | 45 | 32 | 368 | 11.5 | 1 | 71.1% | 24-231-2 | 103 |
| 2015 | Jamison Crowder, Was. | 78 | 59 | 604 | 10.2 | 2 | 75.6% | 66-789-3 | 32 |
| 2015 | Jeremy Butler, Balt. | 44 | 31 | 363 | 11.7 | 0 | 70.5% | 2-11-0 | 184 |
| 2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 51 | 664 | 13.0 | 8 | 73.9% | 45-555-3 | 56 |
| 2016 | Eli Rogers, Pitt. | 66 | 48 | 594 | 12.4 | 3 | 72.7% | 18-149-1 | 123 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 121 | 92 | 1137 | 12.4 | 9 | 76.0% | 125-1405-9 | 6 |
| 2016 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 112 | 84 | 903 | 10.8 | 3 | 75.0% | 64-849-8 | 19 |
| 2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 83 | 61 | 593 | 9.7 | 12 | 73.5% | 75-1183-8 | 8 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 79 | 58 | 917 | 15.8 | 8 | 73.4% | 42-552-3 | 63 |
| 2017 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 84 | 59 | 731 | 12.4 | 2 | 70.2% | 66-872-4 | 32 |
| 2017 | Trent Taylor, S.F. | 60 | 43 | 430 | 10.0 | 2 | 71.7% | 26-215-1 | 113 |
| 2018 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 55 | 40 | 566 | 14.2 | 6 | 72.7% | 94-1161-10 | 5 |
| 2018 | Ryan Switzer, Pitt. | 44 | 36 | 253 | 7.0 | 1 | 81.8% | 8-27-0 | 165 |
| 2019 | Greg Ward, Phil. | 40 | 28 | 254 | 9.1 | 1 | 70.0% | 7-95-3 | 134 |
| 2020 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 44 | 33 | 391 | 11.9 | 1 | 75.0% | 57-802-6 | 31 |
| 2020 | Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 77 | 56 | 656 | 11.7 | 2 | 72.7% | 103-1038-9 | 10 |
| 2020 | Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 81 | 59 | 729 | 12.4 | 0 | 72.8% | 83-866-2 | 29 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1400 | 15.9 | 7 | 70.4% | 128-1809-9 | 1 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 79 | 58 | 600 | 10.3 | 5 | 73.4% | 27-272-2 | 95 |
| 2021 | Devin Duvernay, Balt. | 47 | 33 | 272 | 8.2 | 3 | 70.2% | 37-407-5 | 61 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 9.8 | 7 | 74.3% | 72-1014-4 | 34 |
| 2021 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 64 | 54 | 435 | 8.1 | 1 | 84.4% | 41-414-1 | 83 |
| 2022 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 146 | 106 | 1161 | 11.0 | 6 | 72.6% | 119-1515-10 | 3 |
| 2023 | Khalil Shakir, Buff. | 45 | 39 | 611 | 15.7 | 2 | 86.7% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 102 | 79 | 938 | 11.9 | 7 | 77.5% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 78 | 60 | 525 | 8.8 | 2 | 76.9% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 108 | 77 | 858 | 11.1 | 6 | 71.3% | ??? | ??? |
I think we can also be pretty optimistic about Dalton Kincaid, who is the other strong candidate for a lot more targets. And I don't plan to totally give up on Samuel. But in the wake of the Samuel news, I think Shakir might get another boost in our rankings update on Thursday.
--Andy Richardson
