I don't want to start any panicking, but nor do I want to ignore the report yesterday that Tyreek Hill showed up at Dolphins practice with a protective brace on his right hand. He did some on-field work in individual drills, but it didn't involve actually catching passes.
Hill's a wide receiver, so you'd like to be sure he's able to catch some passes. He's also a top-5 pick in most drafts. There's no indication when he got injured (Miami didn't play its starting wideouts in the last exhibition game), and the team hasn't updated his status. Mike McDaniel is going to talk to the media today, and it will probably come up.
If Hill were to miss time, how might the Dolphins fare offensively? We have a couple of games to look at from late last season.
Hill only missed one game due to his injury a year ago, against the Jets, but he missed more than half of the Titans game as well. Here's how the other key components of the passing game fared in those contests.
Tua Tagovailoa, it's fair to say, missed his top target. In those two games he averaged 232 passing yards and threw only 1 TD. In his other 15 games he averaged 277 passing yards, and threw 28 touchdowns, so nearly 2 per game. Small sample set (we can't say that Tagovailoa would have lit things up even if Hill were available), but would make sense to ratchet his projections back if Tyreek needs to miss any time.
As for his main receivers, there was a nice boost for Jaylen Waddle, DeVon Achane and even Durham Smythe in those two games. Especially Waddle, who caught 14 passes for 221 yards and a touchdown. Can definitely move him up a notch if it seems like Hill is going to miss time. (Waddle, it must be noted, is also missing time with an undisclosed injury, but there's been no indication that he's in danger of missing games that count. Still, worth keeping in mind.)
| DOLPHINS PASS CATCHERS W/OUT HILL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiver | Tgt | No | Rec | TD |
| Waddle (Ten.) | 8 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Waddle (NYJ) | 9 | 8 | 142 | 1 |
| Wilson (Ten.) | 4 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Wilson (NYJ) | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Smythe (Ten.) | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Smythe (NYJ) | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Achane (Ten.) | 9 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Achane (NYJ) | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
With Smythe, note that Jonnu Smith might be the better tight end this season (caught 4 passes in the last exhibition). I don't think a Dolphins TE is draftable, they just don't use them much, but maybe (if Hill is sidelined). And Achane might be more likely to live up to his lofty draft status thus far, catching 8 passes in those two games (just 19 total in his other nine contests).
Again, small sample set. But if the Hill issue is serious -- and again, as of yet we have no reason to think so, but if you're drafting tonight, you'd like to have more info before selecting him in the top 5 or 6 picks -- Waddle and Achane look better. Tagovailoa himself looks worse.
Hopefully there will be more info from McDaniel later today; will update in the comments if so.
--Andy Richardson
