The 49ers signed Brandon Aiyuk yesterday, at long last. He won't be going to Pittsburgh or Cleveland, he'll be staying put, and starting alongside Deebo Samuel. Those who have drafted either player in recent weeks have got a nice value with Aiyuk.
ADP data suggests Deebo has been going at least a handful of spots earlier in drafts this summer, and your results may vary. I was in two drafts this week, and in one Samuel went at 3.5 and Aiyuk at 5.6, two full rounds later. In the other, Samuel went at 4.5 and Aiyuk 6.8, again more than two rounds later, and a disturbingly nice value for one of my competitors.
Samuel used to be the much better player, real-world and fantasy, but looking at last year it's fair to wonder which one is actually better. In PPR leagues, interestingly enough, they finished back to back last season, 14th and 15th in the year-end numbers.
Samuel is definitely more of an injury risk. Used as a running back at times, he takes a lot of punishment; he's missed 7 games the last three seasons, compared to just one missed game for Aiyuk.
Comparing the games they both played in last season, it's a wash. There were 14 games that both started, and each had the better numbers (PPR) seven times.
Table shows each players stats in those games last season, with the superior fantasy player each week in bold. Samuel's stats contain an extra column for rushing yards.
| AIYUK VERSUS SAMUEL, 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Aiyuk | Aiyuk | Deebo | Deebo |
| at Pit. | 8-129-2 | 32.9 | 5-55-8-0 | 11.3 |
| LAR | 3-43-0 | 7.3 | 6-63-38-1 | 22.1 |
| Ariz. | 6-148-0 | 20.8 | 0-0-6-0 | 0.6 |
| Dal. | 4-58-0 | 9.8 | 3-55-30-0 | 11.5 |
| at Cle. | 4-76-0 | 11.6 | 0-0-11-0 | 1.1 |
| at Jac. | 3-55-1 | 14.5 | 4-30-29-1 | 15.9 |
| T.B. | 5-156-1 | 26.6 | 3-63-1-0 | 9.2 |
| at Sea. | 2-50-1 | 13.0 | 7-79-15-1 | 22.4 |
| at Phi. | 5-46-1 | 15.6 | 4-116-22-3 | 35.8 |
| Sea. | 6-126-0 | 18.6 | 7-149-1-2 | 34.0 |
| at Ariz. | 3-37-0 | 6.7 | 4-48-11-2 | 21.9 |
| Balt. | 6-113-0 | 17.3 | 4-47-7-0 | 9.4 |
| at Was. | 7-114-1 | 24.4 | 5-37-35-1 | 18.2 |
| LAR | 3-25-0 | 5.5 | 2-21-11-0 | 5.2 |
Now that Aiyuk is under contract, the gap between the two should narrow in drafts from now through the start of the season. Those who have drafted already seem to have got a pretty nice value if they selected him.
--Andy Richardson
