Three of the first-round quarterbacks will start on Opening Day: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. With these guys being young and untested, should we all be scampering to use the defenses lined up against them?
I’m not a huge fan of the idea myself. Especially with Bo Nix. He threw a ball at Indianapolis a few weeks ago that easily could have been picked, but he was remarkably good at Oregon at avoiding sacks and turnovers. And he’s playing for a coach that I think will keep him out of harm’s way.
Caleb Williams dished up a lot of fumbles and sacks at Southern Cal last year, but he looked like a veteran to me in the preseason. I don’t think he’ll go out against Tennessee and embarrass himself.
Maybe Jayden Daniels. He’s at Tampa Bay, and trying to operate behind a lesser line. With his tendency to try and run his way out of trouble, I could see him giving up some sacks.
The overall record with these kind of matchups, however, isn’t as great as you would think. Of the last 31 quarterbacks selected in the first round, they’ve averaged 210 passing yards in their first games, with 31 touchdowns versus 27 interceptions. Those are below-average numbers, but not reliably or consistently awful.
Collectively, those 31 quarterbacks took 93 sacks in those first games. That’s 3.0 per man. Again, below average, but perhaps not quite the shooting-dead-fish-in-a-barrel kind of numbers you’re hoping for. Ten of the 31 took 4-plus sacks, with six taking exactly 3 and 15 (almost half) taking fewer than 3 sacks.
Numbers come from the search engine at Pro-Football-Reference.com.
| FIRST GAMES FOR FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Result | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | at S.D. | L 14-33 | 254 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | Cin. | L 0-30 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | Atl. | W 41-28 | 317 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | Ten. | L 14-42 | 210 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | at T.B. | W 42-14 | 209 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | Atl. | L 16-23 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | Cle. | W 29-10 | 278 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | Mia. | L 10-14 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | at Cin. | W 13-9 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | at Den. | W 27-24 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | Min. | L 17-20 | 128 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | LAC | L 20-31 | 245 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | Cin. | W 24-21 | 150 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | at Det. | W 48-17 | 198 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | at Oak. | L 42-45 | 295 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | Sea. | L 17-20 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | Det. | T 27-27 | 308 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | at T.B. | W 32-31 | 336 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | at Buff. | L 9-24 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | LAC | L 13-16 | 193 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | K.C. | L 20-23 | 311 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | LAR | W 28-17 | 93 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | at Cle. | L 6-26 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | at Car. | L 14-19 | 258 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | at Ari. | L 10-17 | 192 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | Mia. | L 16-17 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | at Hou. | L 21-37 | 332 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | at Buff. | L 3-38 | 327 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | at Balt. | L 9-25 | 242 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | Jac. | L 21-31 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | at Atl. | L 10-24 | 146 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2024 | Bo Nix, Den. | at Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2024 | Jayden Daniels, Was. | at T.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan