After last week's rundown on where we think things stand on the AFC side of the equation, here's a two-minute drill on the other 16 NFL teams' fantasy ecosystems. This is the state of play in the NFC heading into the big draft weekend.

Dallas Cowboys

Key players
CeeDee Lamb finally has the pay day everyone and his brother knew was coming. A moderately slow start is possible, although I wouldn't particularly worry about that. I am, however, legitimately concerned that the music is about to stop here in Dallas. Mike McCarthy is a lame duck head coach for a team that just lost the beating heart of their locker room with the departure of Dan Quinn, who was so well-liked that several key Cowboys followed him up to Landover. Mike Zimmer is a solid replacement, and none of this should necessarily affect the offensive side of the ball... but still. Amazingly, the Cowboys going with a bargain bin backfield means that Dak Prescott (QB10 and falling) is typically the next Cowboy taken, a whopping 70-odd picks later. Prescott was a screaming value in drafts last year, and frequently going after Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy and even Caleb Williams in drafts right now thanks to the contract hubbub is poised to be one again. Jake Ferguson and his breakout 2023 would be easier to appreciate if it had come a year earlier, but last year's fantasy tight end renaissance washes him out a bit. A good pick, but not one that floors me. Ezekiel Elliott (RB39) and Rico Dowdle (RB42) are ADP neighbors. Give me Dowdle; he's got some real juice, McCarthy's favor and about 3,000 fewer touches since high school. Unfortunately, Dalvin Cook (RB72) is here just in time to complicate matters further, but too late for us to get a real read on. Grab him if you grab one of the other guys. Brandin Cooks (WR58) has seen his price recover a bit this month, but he's still a pretty attractive value to my eyes.

New York Giants

Key players
One of the most controversial fantasy commodities of draft season, Malik Nabers (WR23) has seen his draft slot pull back a little from its summer peak, but there's an excellent chance someone in your draft will reach on him. Resist the urge. Nabers' ceiling is something similar to Garrett Wilson's first two seasons languishing downstream of Zach Wilson, and he's being taken directly next to several receivers with both higher floors and ceilings. Resist the hype! After that, things get bleak in a hurry for Giants in fantasy; Devin Singletary (RB28) has garnered a bit of a following, but heck if I know why. Yes, he's always been solid when called upon. He's also always been on Josh Allen or C.J. Stroud offenses. Add in the fact that rookie Tyrone Tracy (RB59) is a real threat to the 'discount bell cow' theory behind Singletary. Daniel Jones (QB31) deserves no ink, and none will be spilled for him specifically. But I should note: While the Giants offense is likely to once again be a bottom-rung unit, the arrival of Carmen Bricillo from Las Vegas as the new offensive line coach, combined with play-calling duties being handed off to HC Brian Daboll are two legitimately encouraging developments. The Giants could overachieve. Maybe. But probably not.

But maybe!

Philadelphia Eagles

Key players
Saquon Barkley is in the Derrick Henry tier of '... why is this guy going even this late?' for me. Is Hurts going to get 7-12 touchdowns on the ground? Sure, probably. So what? Barkley gets to play for his hometown team while still at the height of his powers after toiling in hyper-futility for the rival Giants for a half-decade. This could be a very special season for him. Hopefully your fantasy team can benefit. I can't really knock A.J. Brown in the late first; he's the WR6 and he still deserves to be. But my spidey sense tells me he's not beating a WR6 finish. But 1300 yards and 9-11 touchdowns is not too shabby, even for a first round pick. Kind of a similar story with Jalen Hurts for me; he deserves to be the QB3, but that may be as good as it gets. And it's not often so much of a quarterback's value hinges on his new offensive coordinator continuing to call for a QB sneak 50 times a year. Devonta Smith (WR24) was already an edge case for me; he had real target concerns, but his ADP had pulled back enough that he was getting intriguing again. The arrival of Jahan Dotson is enough to spook me away; even 70 targets for Dotson starts picking Smith's pocket pretty quick. Dallas Goedert is the Dalton Schultz of the NFC for me, and not in a good way.

Washington Commanders

Key players
Another offense unrepresented in the overall top 50, another offense rife with opportunity. Terry McLaurin (WR30) has not seen his ADP climb as much as I would have expected with the Dotson trade news. I was neutral before, but now I'm cautiously pro-F1 here - the Commanders have basically said it's an ongoing open tryout across from McLaurin. I touched on the backfield a week or so ago, but just to reiterate: I'm a big fan of both Brian Robinson (RB30) and Austin Ekeler (RB34); I was already quite bullish on the upside angle for Ekeler in full PPR, and the Dotson trade has only splashed lighter fluid on the fire here. He could be one of the most-rostered players on championship teams in PPR leagues when it's all said and done. I'm not as in on the Jayden Daniels (QB12) ploy at quarterback as some (our own Colt Williams is probably leading that particular charge around here), but I certainly understand the argument. His rushing yardage absolutely creates a real floor. The problem is that quarterback overall is just so darn strong overall. He can't finish lower than QB16 if he plays a full season, but I don't think he cracks the top 8 unless he delivers an OROY-worthy performance. For those of you who are bound and determined to punt tight end clear into the parking lot annex, Zach Ertz (TE33!) is here to quite possibly catch 6-7 passes next weekend. As Colt joked, '... but it might only be for 40 yards'.

Chicago Bears

Key players
What a difference a year makes, as the Bears are suddenly bursting at the seams with fantasy relevance. Priciest among them is D.J. Moore (WR19), whose fantastic first season in Chicago was rewarded with an absolute deluge of new target competition. Running in the late third to middle fourth rounds of 12-team half-PPR leagues of late - I like him, but there is just always one or two receivers hanging around I reach for first. But let's be clear: Moore is the best receiver here, and 1200 yards are absolutely in play. Keenan Allen (WR33) and Rome Odunze (WR39) trail a few rounds behind, as they probably should. Every time I want to begin to presume one is going to eat into the other guy's lunch tray I wind up quickly coming to the other guy's defense. Forest for the trees: maybe there is room for both of these two to clock 900 yards? The next guy who's excited to take D'Andre Swift (RB22) in a fantasy draft this year will be the first that I've seen, and we all know why. But they paid the man, and new OC Shane Waldron played his best running back most of the time last year (Kenneth Walker). I can't quite advocate for him over James Conner, but if he slips from his 63rd overall draft slot even a few picks I start to get pretty curious. Most prefer Jayden Daniels for the rookie QB scam, but for me it is Caleb Williams (QB13) in a landslide. Prodigal play extending abilities. Lethal throwing on the run, whether it's to his left or his right. An embarrassment of riches to whom to throw. Oh, and he might just lead the team in rushing touchdowns. Yeah, I'm sold. Down to TE16 and still sliding, Cole Kmet is rumored to have been pushed into a true split with the newly-arrived Gerald Everett, whom Waldron previously worked with in Seattle. Hard avoid.

Detroit Lions

Key players
If you would have told me three years ago that the absolute, unquestioned gold standard of year-to-year fantasy stability would be the Detroit Lions, I dare say I would not have believed you. Alas, what a difference an OC Ben Johnson makes. There's not much in the way of true value at ADP since nobody's sleeping on any of these guys anymore, but when you take a Detroit Lion in fantasy you know exactly what you are getting - and that absolutely has its charms. Jahmyr Gibbs probably can't get to double-digit touchdowns on the ground, but with his passing game use set to continue expanding with Detroit opting not to replace the departed Josh Reynolds with anyone of consequence, it's very easy to like the ultra-speedy, even at his lofty RB6 price. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR5) is basically just the Pepsi to CeeDee Lamb's Coca-Cola; I might slightly prefer coke, but if they're out then the Pepsi will work just fine. And more than a few people prefer Pepsi this year, straight up. Sam LaPorta (TE2) not only quickly stabilized his target share as a rookie, but his role as the 1A to ARSB near the endzone. David Montgomery (RB21) is a shoo-in to score three touchdowns for every four games he plays. And Jared Goff (QB14) is nearly assured to give you upwards of 4300 yards passing and 27 touchdowns, for cheap.

Every major piece in Detroit's offense is highly stable... save for one. A stubbornly popular 'breakout candidate', I can't summon any enthusiasm for Jameson Williams even at his modest WR46 sticker price. He's plenty talented, and HC Dan Campbell has tried to gas him up with some positive comments in the press. But the fact of the matter is that if this guy were going to be somebody then he'd have done it by now, and the rest of the Lions' machine is already in place. Williams would have to compel Campbell/Ben Johnson to feature him to make a push for the top 30 at receiver, and I just don't see it. I'll pass on 'Jame-o'.

Green Bay Packers

Key players
Perhaps no offense is poised to absolutely erupt quite like Green Bay's. And certainly, no receiving pecking order is nearly this difficult to decode. Because of the intense competition for Jordan Love's attention among the receivers, Josh Jacobs (RB12) is being taken miles ahead of all of them. Unequivocally, I love Josh Jacobs this year; rather than enter into any protracted contract bickering with an aggrieved Aaron Jones, the Packers released a still-capable fan favorite to pay Josh Jacobs more money; there was absolutely no 'eh, I guess you'll do' here. Josh Jacobs is the last RB off the board (RB12) with a legitimate chance at an RB1 finish this year. That's right, I said it! Jordan Love (QB9) is one of the other quarterbacks that I am willing to pony up for this year. It's hard to understate how dominant he was in last year's second half, he has frankly too many receivers, and he gets a running back upgrade to boot. He doesn't run enough to push for a top 3 finish, but it's gonna take a heck of a group effort from the league's other great quarterbacks to keep him out of the top 6.

Which brings us to those wide receivers... gulp. Messy as it is, given how good this offense figures to be you do definitely want to take a stab on one (or two) of these guys. Second-year dynamo Jayden Reed (WR36) is commanding the most princely investment, but coming off of 10-touchdown rookie season that could easily wind up being a steal. Romeo Doubs (WR52) and Dontayvion Wicks (WR57) have too much buzz to not be heavily involved, but both figure to operate primarily as outside guys. And then there's the superfreak. Christian Watson is running just off Reed's pace as the WR40, and figures to compete with Reed for some 'manufactured touch, yards after catch' work close to/behind the line of scrimmage, and with Wicks as a conventional boundary route runner. As good as all these guys are, I want the upside, and I think Reed and Watson possess the most. But taking a stab on Wicks and banking that Christian Watson's hamstring woes are not a thing of the past makes plenty of sense. Luke Musgrave (TE18) was poised to be an intriguing TE2 in fantasy to start the season when word of Tucker Kraft's pectoral injury broke a few months ago, but with Kraft back in action and the intense target pressure around him he's off the redraft radar for now.

Minnesota Vikings

Key players
Everyone seems to still agree that Justin Jefferson (WR3) is the best receiver in the NFL, but few are currently drafting him accordingly. And sure, the presence of Darnold should be enough to move CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill ahead of him in most leagues. But an extremely high target share in an extremely high pass rate environment is a glorious, potentially PPR league-winning thing. I was already urging people not to take St. Brown over Jefferson, and with his holdout creeping dangerously close to the regular season now, add Ja'Marr Chase to that list. Abruptly cast off by the division rival Packers, Aaron Jones (RB18) did kind of fall into the Vikings' laps this spring. He's got some upside here, as the Vikings pass game missing its star tight end for the first several games could chase some receptions into Jones' coffers, but the Vikes seemed to be pretty content to head into 2024 with Ty Chandler (RB47) as their lead sled dog until Jones landed on their doorstep. We could secretly have something close to a true 50-50 split here, which would be bad news for Jones and his drafters. Jordan Addison (WR44) clearly has a whole lot of growing up to do off the football field; but on it, he can play. And again, Hockenson's absence means neither he nor Jefferson will lack for work. Like Rashee Rice, take the moral terpitude discount here and ask for forgiveness later. T.J. Hockenson (TE14) is a lock to miss the first four games, and given that his knee injury wasn't fully surgically resolved until almost February, you should brace for him to miss more like eight. But he could be back to 100% just a couple of weeks before the fantasy playoffs start; as a 12th round pick who was the fantasy TE1 at the time of his injury, he begs consideration.

Atlanta Falcons

Key players
The near-consensus RB3 behind McCaffrey and Hall, I can't think of a single reason not to be excited about Bijan Robinson in the middle of the first round. With a likely high pass volume scheme in place and a quarterback (two of them, in fact) that can enact it, Robinson could easily push for an overall RB1 finish this fall. Next up is Drake London (WR11), and a great many people are too traumatized to even consider him. While I certainly understand the (deep) reluctance, the fact of the matter is the Falcons brought in coaches and players for this offense that indicate that they do have a clue... now. Cousins (and in a pinch, first rounder Michael Penix) should be able to produce 4200 or so passing yards, and somebody has to be on the other end of that volume. London is a lot safer than our collective trauma wants to let us believe. The last major pieces are Kyle Pitts (TE7; same basic argument as London, 'he's probably really good offense is probably good could easily catch 85 balls this year for whoever is willing to forget the past') and Kirk Cousins (QB19), who is bafflingly hanging out back in the Mayfield tier of solid backups despite shredding for QB10 or better days in six of his eight starts last year before the tragic Achilles injury. Yes, it's hard to move Cousins ahead of any of the guys being taken before him in drafts - but he was the QB6 in 2022, and on a Falcons team that is the betting favorite to win the division it will not shock me at all if he finishes close to that mark again here. Tyler Allgeier (RB52) returns as one of the few true 'handcuffs' out there in a world gone to RBBC pot; if Bijan goes down, Allgeier should see close to the same workload. Lastly, the presumed high pass volume environment here has us interested in tertiary Falcons receivers for the first time since Harry Douglas: one of the more shocking contracts handed out this spring was the 3-yr, $39 million deal given to one Darnell Mooney (WR69). Having long since become persona non grata to fantasy players, Mooney did have a 1,000-yard season in Chicago once upon a time and clearly the Falcons like what he brings to the table. The price and the offense are right for taking a stab on Mooney, although fellow free agency addition Ray-Ray McCloud saw a concerning amount of run with the first team this summer.

Carolina Panthers

Key players
Another offense completely iced out of the top end of the board is Carolina's, and deservedly so after last year's nonstop horror show. But like the Falcons, the coaching staff is all-new and widely believed to be an enormous improvement. Poised to potentially demolish his WR38 ADP as the near-unanimous first Panther drafted is Diontae Johnson, who is in a contract year and may have only a 34-year old slot man to compete with for volume. I'm not sure if Diontae is great or merely good; I am sure that if Canales can work his same magic as a head coach that he did in his previous stops as an assistant, it won't matter. But that one cuts both ways, and that 'if' is a pretty big one. That 34-year old receiver is Adam Thielen (WR60), who constituted a lone beacon of fantasy hope as a mega-scam borderline WR1 in an otherwise desolate wasteland for several weeks last season before crashing back to earth once Frank Reich was given the heave. Thielen could easily be fantasy relevant again here, especially early on. Xavier Legette (WR64) is a heck of a specimen with a heck of a South Carolina accent, and he could play his way on to our radars... in November. Let somebody else in your league stash him on their bench and then dump him in frustration after Week 3. Chuba Hubbard (RB42) was an absolute workhorse for a disastrous Panthers team last year, is in a contract year and only has a rookie running back that Dave Canales has never seen in action before to worry about, and not until October at the absolute earliest. How he is going this late is beyond me. Bryce Young (QB29) has miles to go before he's back in frame in typical leagues.

New Orleans Saints

Key players
The Saints fantasy players seem to labor from a perception problem similar to that of the Falcons, and there's a chance that it's similarly misplaced. Chris Olave (WR12) gets a presumably significant OC upgrade in the switch from Pete Carmichael to Klint Kubiak, has access to the 25% or higher target share that we covet and has produced 1.36 fantasy points per target through two seasons; Puka Nacua, in a better offense with a better quarterback, tallied 1.54 fantasy points per target last year. For context, Garrett Wilson and his far worse offense and quarterback play is at 1.08 points per target to date. If the switch to Kubiak is worth a modest bump in per play production for Olave then he could be a huge get in the middle of the second round. I'm still a fan of Alvin Kamara as the RB17, as he's still an elite talent and I am marking the whole offense up strictly owing to the OC change. But the relentless drumbeat for Taysom Hill is kind of impossible to overlook at this point; this may be Hill's most prolific year in fantasy yet. One important wrinkle to note: the Saints' perpetual salary cap crunch is overwhelmingly likely to result in the release of Alvin Kamara next spring. I'm not sure if that means they're likely to use him more or less as a result, but I am sure that Jamaal Williams (and yes, Dennis Allen's favorite flogging post Kendre Miller) is officially on the radar as a buy low target in dynasty leagues.

Hiding in plain sight as a potentially seismic value is third-year spark plug Rashid Shaheed (WR62). Shaheed is one of the fastest men in the league, had such a strong summer that the Saints proactively gave him a one-year extension thru 2025 in spite of their crippling salary cap issues rather than risk letting him play his way into a bigger pay day elsewhere, and is exactly the kind of yards after catch X-factor that a Kyle Shanahan disciple striking out on his own for the first time like could have a lot of use for. Oh, and as an ace kick returner and the new kickoff rules he might actually take a couple kicks to the house. Justin Jefferson has 1.70 fantasy points per target for his career; Shaheed has 2.01. The price-to-upside ratio is in the red; he's one of my most-rostered players this year. Derek Carr is the QB28, and for any of this upside to materialize he has to absolutely smoke that ADP. Juwan Johnson (TE28) is a forgotten man at the moment, largely owing to a foot injury that wiped out his entire summer. He figures to be a non-factor early on, but he's a size-speed guy who has flashed major redzone chops in the past and closed last year on a hot streak. He's a name to keep in mind if Kubiak pulls a Canales with Carr.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key players
Mike Evans (WR15) remains without peer doing what he does best: 'go get 'em' balls against man coverage, which was precisely why he wound up not seeing much of a difference in his volume numbers during his three years downstream from Tom Brady. Of course, this means he's broadly insensitive to his caliber of quarterback play in either direction; Mike Evans is gonna get his (seven seasons over 1050 yards receiving), but not much more (one season with 1300 yards). Rachaad White is notionally a Mike Evans-esque 'set it and forget it' type of buy as the RB13... but I have concerns. Deeply reliant on his excellence in the passing game, the Bucs using a 4th round pick on Bucky Irving this spring is roughly equivalent to a team using a late 2nd round pick on a running back 10 years ago. In an offense primed for some degree of post-Canales hangover, that ain't good. 'This year's Rhamondre Stevenson' comes to mind.

A popular post-hype target in drafts this year is Chris Godwin (WR34), and considering he caught 83 balls last year he is certainly a good bet to exceed those modest expectations. I just don't think he can exceed them by much; Godwin has not managed better than a WR18 half-PPR finish since his tremendous WR2 finish in 2019... which was part of the once in a blue moon Jameis Winston 30-interception circus act. Going on 29 with a hotshot rookie filling up his rearview mirror fast, I just can't shake the feeling that we're holding out for a 2019 repeat that will never come. Jalen McMillan is that aforementioned hotshot, and the Buccaneers are head over heels here. With Godwin heading into a contract year, if the Bucs fall out of the hunt we could see McMillan begin to phase Godwin out on the back nine. Geno Smith's numbers pulled back across the board after Canales' departure; Baker Mayfield (QB21) and his QB10 finish last year figure to suffer a similar fate. Cade Otton is running well off the radar as the TE25, which is probably appropriate... but it is worth pointing out that he was instrumental to the Bucs' in both their wild card game win (8 catches for 89 yards) and their divisional round game in Detroit (5 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown). There are definitely worse guys to stash on your bench.

Arizona Cardinals

Key players
Marvin Harrison Jr. is probably the most feverishly anticipated rookie receiver since Keyshawn Johnson, and he may just be the most hyped ever. Possessed of a combination of size, athleticism and uncanny instincts/feel for a rookie, I can’t say that Puka Nacua’s brand-new rookie receiving record is entirely safe. It goes against every fiber in my being to consider a rookie receiver at the 1st/2nd round turn, so I can’t recommend it. But I must admit: if there were ever a rookie to do it for… few second-year tight ends have made players as good as Zach Ertz still is appear so utterly unnecessary as Trey McBride did in relief of the injured veteran. There’s no wrong answer between him, Dalton Kincaid and Mark Andrews, but if I had to choose one I’d opt for McBride; he’s the one that would least surprise me to see finish as the TE1 this year. Kyler Murray (QB8) has been a pretty trendy choice as a budget pseudo-elite fantasy quarterback this summer, albeit probably owing mostly to some spillover Marvin Harrison Jr. excitement. The jury is somehow still out on Murray as a passer, but with these receivers and the full return of his rushing floor, it’s very hard not to find his current price enticing.

Trey Benson and his RB40 ADP must not have gotten the memo: James Conner (RB19) is still the sheriff in these parts. Playing the best football of his career and angling for one more eight figure NFL contract, James Conner has this backfield way more under control than these even semi-close ADPs imply. In fact, it’s not even clear who the direct backup to Conner actually is at the moment. Hiding over 50 spots back of Harrison Jr. is Michael Wilson, a guy who flashed a lot of promise between injuries in college and kept that same theme going as a rookie last year. Both he and the Cardinals could really use 12+ games from Wilson to keep defenses guessing, and he could make a surprise appearance in the top 45 if he plays a full slate. Easily the favorite son of fantasy nerd Twitter right now is none other than Greg Dortch (WR78), the diminutive former UDFA out of Wake Forest who has only ever produced when pressed into duty. With former Cardinals’ slot man Rondale Moore gone, HC Jonathan Gannon has not been shy with his praise for the plucky Dortch. Boasting similar skillsets and spriteliness, I would not imagine Dortch outproduces Baltimore’s Zay Flowers straight up. But I do believe Dortch matches him in fantasy points generated per capita.

Los Angeles Rams

Key players
The Rams entered August with two players running comfortably in the top 18 ADP of PPR drafts, and by the end of the month both had seen their stock begin to take on water. Puka Nacua only slid a few spots and has since rebounded back to WR8, but the perceived gap between him and Cooper Kupp (WR17) hasn’t been smaller at any point in 2024 than it is right now. Nacua’s place in the LA pecking order is certainly plenty secure, but Kupp is not going away without a fight. People that owned Nacua for the price of a waiver wire claim last year may be less thrilled with him now that they own him for a top-15 pick. As for Kupp, he was a lot easier to like before he climbed clear past the high-end WR2s up to the Mike Evans and Nico Collins of the world. I’m still in, but let’s not pretend he doesn’t present a fair amount of risk himself at this stage. The second of the Ram’s dual waiver wire darlings last year was Kyren Williams, who saw his average draft position slip a few spots in the overall on the news of his new punt returning responsibilities, flip-flopping with Travis Etienne from the RB7 to RB8. For some people this news of McVay’s mad scientist ways came as a surprise… less so for others. I can’t fault someone for chasing the kind of legitimate matchup-tilting ceiling that Williams showed us just last fall. But if you roll the dice, you better make absolutely certain that Blake Corum (RB41) finds his way home to you in the later rounds. Matt Stafford (QB20) is one of the most pleasantly-priced QB2s in the fantasy kingdom, and is a golden backstop for the Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams believers among us. Demarcus Robinson (WR81) is almost definitely not going to repeat anything like the WR20 pace he came out of nowhere to crank down the stretch in 2023. But for the whopping price of ‘free to good home’, why not?

… I’m glad you asked. While several players impressed in the 2024 NFL preseason, there is really no debating which player raised at least his long-term fantasy outlook the most. Jordan Whittington was taken by the Rams in the sixth round at least partially at the urging of University of Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, a guy Sean McVay is extremely close with. Whittington has done nothing but rack up the attaboys all summer, culminating with two very impressive showings as a ruddy sort of volume processor before the Rams held him out of the preseason finale altogether. And word is starting to get around, as Whittington has climbed all the way from being ADP ineligible just a couple weeks ago to cracking the top 100 now as the WR96. Few players are as well-positioned to blitzkrieg their way on to the fantasy radar in the next two weeks. If you are soft at receiver and can spare a bench spot right now, cutting the line to put in a waiver claim on this guy now would not be a bad idea. I certainly did.

San Francisco 49ers

Key players
These 49ers are probably better-represented at the top of fantasy drafts than any previous Kyle Shanahan-led variant – which is saying something. The #1 overall pick in every league where the person picking first isn’t overthinking it, Christian McCaffrey was pretty much a wire-to-wire one-man wrecking crew last year, hilariously finishing as the RB15 or better 16 times in his first 16 tries before a calf tweak in week 17 blemished an otherwise flawlessly dominant campaign. There’s nothing to nitpick here, and to the extent there was, it went away with the recent news that the dangerously capable Elijah Mitchell would miss the 2024 season, leaving the 49ers with no remotely proven option to take work off CMC’s plate. So yeah, for at least one more year McCaffrey is still king. While Kupp narrowed the ADP gap on his fellow Rams receiver in the last month, Deebo Samuel (WR13) ate clean through the one between Aiyuk and him, and out the other side. I felt we were too squeamish with Deebo last year, but this new price point for him is an over-correction for a contract dispute that was always likely to end in reconciliation, and now has. Deebo’s too spendy for a guy who feels like a 50/50 bet to be available for the fantasy playoffs.

A full round off of his ADP two months ago, Brandon Aiyuk as the WR16 claws back some appeal at this slightly discounted price. In full PPR formats it’s still hard to absolutely love either of the 49ers’ top receivers given how low the pass volume typically is in this offense, but certainly Aiyuk offers a degree of week-to-week stability (and availability) that is more appealing than Samuel. I still prefer the comparably-priced Nico Collins though. The story remains the same for George Kittle (TE6), as the sugar rush spike games help the random game script-fueled duds go down a bit easier. No reason to think that improves or worsens in 2024. Brock Purdy (QB11) is another reason that it is just so hard to justify paying a premium for one of the top end guys at the position; if he plays 17 games he’s going to have another top 10 finish.

Seattle Seahawks

Key players
After weeks of speculation ahead of the Steelers’ wild card round loss in Buffalo that this might be his last go round with the team, it was a whole other long-time head coach that surprisingly joined Belichick in gracefully stepping aside. Pete Carroll hands the reins to former Baltimore DC Mike Macdonald, who quickly enlisted Huskies OC Ryan Grubb to come from the U-District down to SoDo. The emerging standard for new head coaches from the defensive coordinator track is for them to ‘stay in their lanes’ and let the offensive minds handle that side of the ball, so we have to assume that Grubb has license to scheme this thing up as he sees fit. And buddy, Grubb likes to chuck it. In his final season as a Husky, Michael Penix attempted 37.0 passes per game; for context, Sam Howell led the NFL in pass attempts last year and only threw it 36.0 times a game.

Therefore, we have a fairly significant philosophy shift toward the pass at play, which when combined with this talent-laden Seahawk receiver core and their generally reasonable ADPs there’s a lot to potentially like here. As a result, DK Metcalf (WR18) has seen his ADP climb over the summer as a result, but I don’t think it climbed as much as it should have. After the first two years post-Russ proved to be a mixed bag for his individual numbers, Metcalf absolutely could be on the cusp of a '2023 A.J. Brown'-type of re-breakthrough this year – the new regime seems intent on exactly that. Going at a WR41 price point that suggests ‘nobody really knows what’s gonna happen here’, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was pretty clearly the third fiddle to an offense that barely needed two last year. If we allow the presumption that the Seahawks are going to throw even more this year (and the Seahawks already threw it a fair amount last year, so that’s certainly no given) and that ‘JSN’ is a good bet to pull clear of the veteran incumbent, then he’s a strong bet at this sub-Rome Odunze (also a rookie receiver behind two star veterans; also has Seattle’s previous OC) price. We’ve been writing Tyler Lockett (WR53) off every summer only for him to rub our noses in it (except for our own Blackout Ben of course, who has long since made Lockett an annual fixture on his teams) for what must be half a decade now, but this time really feels like the music could stop for the soon-to-be 32-year old: not only does he have Smith-Njigba demanding more involvement, but the summer with the first new head coach of his NFL career was probably not the one to spend on the shelf with a patella problem. Lockett is a candidate to start slow, and he may need an injury to one of the other receivers to really get back in the action here.

I loosely compared Kenneth Walker (RB16) to Travis Etienne in the AFC article, but maybe Isiah Pacheco is the more apt comparison – especially now that Pacheco has his own personal passing down vulture in Samaje Perine, similar to what we fear Walker has with Zach Charbonnet (RB45). Whether you prefer the Etienne or the Pacheco comps, as long as you like one then you should be in on Walker since he’s almost two rounds cheaper than both of those guys – and he may just be the best player of the bunch. Inarguably what has locked Walker out of first three rounds of drafts this year has been the presence of Charbonnet, but if anything the excitement for him has waned in recent months. Be that as it may, ‘Charbo’ has passing game chops and for all we know could see double-digit touches this weekend. Plus he should be capable of serving as a 1:1 fill-in were Walker to miss time.

The Seahawks somewhat shockingly lavished Noah Fant (TE27) with a $10.5 million a year contract on the first day of free agency this spring. To date he’s mostly underwhelmed from a fantasy standpoint, but Fant has super high-end athleticism for the position and now gets a big vote of confidence from GM John Schneider. Very intriguing. Geno Smith (QB24) is at something of a crossroads. On the one hand, he’s certainly got a free and clear path to a 4000 yards passing per game pace so long as he can stay healthy and the offensive line holds together, and with these receivers 4500 isn’t strictly out of the question. But on the other, Seattle trading for Sam Howell and giving up significantly more than what the Steelers gave up to take a flyer on Justin Fields suggests the Seahawks aren’t exactly counting on Geno beyond this year... and maybe not even that far. Regardless of who he might suit up for next year, Smith sure looks like he’s set up for success here... if the blocking holds. Well worth a late pick as a clearance rack QB2.

—Luke Wilson