Working on the Giants text for the first issue of Fantasy Index Weekly (out tomorrow!), I wondered how Malik Nabers might do. I've been a little skeptical, what with Daniel Jones not being very good. But the recent history of wide receivers selected as early as Nabers is pretty strong.
This century, there have been 14 wide receivers selected within the top 6 picks of the draft, like Nabers (6th) and Arizona's Marvin Harrison (4th). Nearly half of them (six) have finished with at least top 25 numbers in PPR leagues in their rookie seasons. Three others made it into the top 30, while two others finished in the top 40. Some of those guys (like Calvin Johnson) were brought along slowly because they had more ahead of them on their respective teams than Nabers and Harrison do.
WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN TOP 6, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pk | Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk |
5 | 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 5 |
6 | 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 12 |
4 | 2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 115 | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 17 |
4 | 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 130 | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 21 |
6 | 2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 95 | 54 | 959 | 8 | 21 |
3 | 2003 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 119 | 66 | 976 | 4 | 22 |
4 | 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 128 | 65 | 982 | 6 | 27 |
5 | 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 132 | 64 | 865 | 5 | 29 |
4 | 2000 | Peter Warrick, Cin. | 126 | 51 | 592 | 7 | 30 |
3 | 2004 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 115 | 58 | 780 | 8 | 31 |
2 | 2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 93 | 48 | 756 | 5 | 38 |
3 | 2005 | Braylon Edwards, Cle. | 59 | 32 | 512 | 3 | 67 |
5 | 2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 65 | 34 | 375 | 0 | 85 |
2 | 2003 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 52 | 22 | 243 | 3 | 88 |
As the table shows, not all of those guys have gone on to be stars. Blackmon, Warrick and Rogers certainly didn't. But the vast majority were starters in typical fantasy leagues as rookies, and two-thirds of them went on to have very good (or Hall of Fame) careers. No one should be doubting the potential of either Harrison or Nabers to start putting up strong numbers right away.
--Andy Richardson