If you're 0-3, or even a disappointing 1-2, you're probably feeling defeated. Your team, your strategy, and even Lady Luck are letting you down right now. When you look up at the standings you see a bunch of fantasy teams, and some of them aren't nearly as good as yours.
But if you look just above those teams you'll see other things circling overhead, and they're much more dangerous than your opponents' rosters. They can destroy your season before you have a chance to turn it around. They're vultures, and they want your best players. And if you're smart, you'll ignore them.
You can't blame these managers, of course. They don't know your mindset, and you might be in complete panic mode. It doesn't hurt to throw a trade offer your way and see if you're delusional enough to give up on guys you were praising just a few weeks ago. Maybe you're willing to give up on your players, and they're offering something in return.
The "something," of course, is a guy or two who have exceeded expectations so far. Never mind if it won't last. Like the time-honored stock market strategy, they're trying to buy low and sell high. And they're hoping you'll follow the panicked strategy of trying to cut your losses. Even if you don't take the exact deal they give you, showing some interest means you're willing to give up on some great players after 12 quarters of football. Now they just need to find a price you'll accept. For them it's another opportunity to make their team better.
But for you, it's often a recipe for disaster. I'm not saying you shouldn't be concerned about a lack of production. But concern is very different than panic. And while I'm a fan of trades in general, there are very few good offers coming your way right after week 3.
Okay, but what about the other side? Shouldn't you make trade offers to panicked managers? Be careful there, too. Fantasy managers have long memories, especially when it comes to negative experiences. They can tell you about a tough loss 12 years ago. They remember the long-forgotten contract holdout that cost them wins. And if you send them an insulting trade offer that looks like a kick when they're already down, odds are good that they'll remember that, too. You might lose access to a valuable trade partner you might need next month, or next season, or even a few years down the road. Fantasy managers don't forget. If you want to see if you can get a player at a good value, don't make an insulting offer. You can buy low without rubbing their nose in it.
Oh, and don't try to throw out last week's waiver darling as bait. Everybody saw you scoop them up, and they know you have zero capital invested.
Of course, like with nearly every topic in this column, there's some risk: You might avoid a trade for your players, only to find out they're a season-long dud. You might have gotten a star player for peanuts because the panicked manager wouldn't see your offer as insulting, so you overpaid instead. Anything can happen, but that includes other things you didn't expect. The sell-high guy you gave away in trade might continue their hot streak, making you look silly for giving them away. And injuries can make any trade look foolish in perfect hindsight. You never know.
Still, I believe you need to give your strategy more time to play out. I think your risk is much higher that you give away a top player, and his slow start is forgotten at the end of the year, when he's scoring points for someone else. The prospects who had a great start come back to earth, and you're left with a roster full of mediocrity and regret. Or your low-ball trade offer is rejected within minutes, and the manager will look elsewhere when they decide to trade, or make you pay a "jerk tax" in any future deals.
Last thing: Be careful about trading away and trading for injured guys. Is Isiah Pacheco worth keeping or worth acquiring? How about Puka Nacua? A Rams victory probably makes Nacua more valuable, because they still might be in the playoff hunt when he gets back. But I think a Kansas City victory makes Pacheco less valuable, because if they can win without him, why rush him back or make him a workhorse? The schedule will probably play a role in how valuable a player is once they return, so unless you can predict NFL games very accurately, proceed with caution. In the meantime, avoid the vultures and good luck this week.
Are you fielding any trade offers, or considering making any? How eager are you to trade this early in the season? Share your thoughts below.
