Fantasy managers often talk about player floors and ceilings to convey a guy's upside and downside. You want a high floor and a high ceiling, but that's rare. You might get a low floor and a high ceiling, or a high floor but a low ceiling. That's normal. But how about a penthouse or three miles below the ground? Why are some players so tough to predict, and what can you do about it?
In week 2, Calvin Ridley had 77 yards and a touchdown. Rashid Shaheed had 96 yards and a touchdown, and Jameson Williams had 79 yards on 11 targets. None of them mustered even 10 yards the following week, and Shaheed had as many catches and yards as you did. I understand deviation and risk, but when Carson Steele goes from 17-72 and a reception in week 3 to banishment to Siberia for fumbling in week 4, it's a bit more than that. I don't have the stats to back it up (I rarely do), but it feels like there's more unpredictability this season than in previous years.
When we look at end-of-year stats, they can be misleading. Two players can put up similar numbers, but one can be unspectacularly steady, while the other can be hit or miss (with a lot of miss). I think a lot of fantasy managers, myself included, prefer the steady performer, but some like to take a few more risks (rookies like Steele naturally carry more risk since they have almost no track record). When you're throwing a player into your starting lineup, whether from your bench or the waiver wire, it's important to know what you're getting. Or at least feel like you kinda know.
Not to brag, but one way to do that is with Fantasy Index magazine. In each team section, you'll see a game-by-game stat recap for each fantasy-significant player. It's easy to see who was steady as a rock, and who went up and down like a barely-known cryptocurrency. You'll see that players take different paths to those final numbers, and you can plan accordingly on draft day.
Okay, that's great for July, but what about now? With more injuries in week 4, bench players and waiver pickups are cracking starting lineups with more frequency, and bye weeks won't help matters, either. I suggest that, when deciding on players to start, look at their game-by-game stats rather than rankings or projections. Do you want a consistent, low-ceiling player (like maybe Romeo Doubs with Christian Watson out in Green Bay), or a guy who might get you huge points one week, and a donut the next (like maybe Dontayvion Wicks instead of Doubs)? It depends on the rest of your roster, and how your league ranks teams. Do total points matter, even to break ties? If not, it doesn't matter if you lose by 5 or 55. More risk might be in order, especially if your team has a lot of weaknesses. But if you have a solid roster and just need to plug a hole for a few weeks, or points really matter in the standings, a steady performer might be preferable. They won't win games on their own, but they won't tank your week, either. Pay attention to their weekly deviations before you select or start them.
But other times you can't afford to be choosy, and you'll just have to ride the rollercoaster. Sometimes it pays off: Shaheed was a respectable 8-83 (with a fumble) and led the team in targets a week after catching zero passes. Jameson Williams hit on a long touchdown Monday night to avoid another dud. And other times, well, you get Ridley against the Dolphins. Just try to remember that making these decisions is part of the fun. Predicting the unpredictable is what we do each week. All you can do is understand what data you're using and try to make better decisions with that information. And for me, knowing how a player gets to their stats is one of the variables used to determine who gets a starting spot in the lineup. Assuming you have options, of course, and I hope you do. Good luck this week.
Do you prefer high floors and low ceilings, or low floors and high ceilings? How do you determine which type of player is best for your team? Share your thoughts below.
