Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Spencer Rattler

Saints starting a rookie quarterback

It’s Rattler time in New Orleans. Derek Carr is out with an injury, and the Saints are turning to a fifth-round rookie at quarterback. That usually doesn’t end well.

There are, of course, exceptions, with Tom Brady and Brock Purdy at the head of the list. Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were fourth-round picks, and they’ve made a nice living playing tackle football. Gardner Minshew, Ryan Fitzpatrick – some of these late-round guys pan out.

Far more commonly, when a player isn’t picked earlier, it’s because teams have correctly figured out that they’re not good enough for NFL purposes.

On these kind of players, I’m always more interested in looking at the reverse again. That is, is there value in using the defense playing against them, picking up sacks and turnovers.

In this particular case, Spencer Rattler didn’t do anything too out of the ordinary in the preseason, completing 20 of 38, with a touchdown, 3 sacks and no interceptions.

But out of curiosity, let’s roll out the bigger-picture numbers.

In the 32-team era, there have been 35 quarterbacks selected after the third round who started games as rookies. These guys went 9-26 in their initial starts, completing 58 percent of their passes and averaging 179 passing yards, with 22 TDs and 45 interceptions. Of those interceptions, 6 were returned for touchdowns the other way. And I’m seeing 90 sacks (2.6 per game, on average).

In the chart below, I’ve got the players who won their first starts tagged with black dots.

DEBUT STARTS FOR LIGHTLY REGARDED ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS
YearPlayerRdOppResultComAttYdsTDInt
2002David Garrard, Jac.4at Ind.L 13-20132613500
2002Randy Fasani, Car.5T.B.L 9-125184603
2003Ken Dorsey, S.F.7at N.O.L 27-30183220501
2004John Navarre, Ari.7at Det.L 12-26184016814
2004• Craig Krenzel, Chi.5S.F.W 23-13132516811
2004Luke McCown, Cle.4N.E.L 15-42203427722
2005Kyle Orton, Chi.4at Was.L 7-9152814101
2005Ryan Fitzpatrick, St.L.7Was.L 9-24213616301
2006Bruce Gradkowski, T.B.6at N.O.L 21-24203122520
2007Troy Smith, Balt.5at Sea.L 6-27163319910
2008Josh Johnson, T.B.5at Was.L 13-16132210611
2009Keith Null, St.L.6at Ten.L 7-47284416515
2010• John Skelton, Ari.5Den.W 43-13153714600
2010• Joe Webb, Min.6at Phil.W 24-14172619500
2010Rusty Smith, Ten.6at Hou.L 0-20173113803
2011• T.J. Yates, Hou.5Atl.W 17-10122518810
2012• Kirk Cousins, Was.4at Cle.W 38-21263732921
2012Ryan Lindley, Ari.6St.L.L 17-31315231204
2014• AJ McCarron, Cin.5at S.F.W 24-14152119210
2014Zach Mettenberger, Ten.6Hou.L 16-30274129921
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.4NYGL 19-20254522700
2016Jeff Driskel, S.F.6Den.L 10-24253723611
2017Nathan Peterman, Buff.5at LACL 24-546146605
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.6at Hou.L 12-13233321310
2019Ryan Finley, Cin.4Balt.L 13-49163016711
2020Ben DiNucci, Dall.7at Phil.L 9-23214018000
2020Jake Luton, Jac.6Hou.L 25-27263830411
2021Ian Book, N.O.4Mia.L 3-20122013502
2022• Brock Purdy, S.F.7T.B.W 35-7162118520
2022• Bailey Zappe, N.E.4Det.W 29-0172118811
2022Skylar Thompson, Mia.7Min.L 16-247138900
2023• Jaren Hall, Min.5at Atl.W 31-28567800
2023Aidan O'Connell, L.V.4at LACL 17-24243923801
2023Clayton Tune, Ari.5at Cle.L 0-2711205802
2023D. Thompson-Robinson, Cle.5Balt.L 3-28193612103
2024Spencer Rattler, N.O.5T.B.??????

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index