It’s Rattler time in New Orleans. Derek Carr is out with an injury, and the Saints are turning to a fifth-round rookie at quarterback. That usually doesn’t end well.
There are, of course, exceptions, with Tom Brady and Brock Purdy at the head of the list. Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were fourth-round picks, and they’ve made a nice living playing tackle football. Gardner Minshew, Ryan Fitzpatrick – some of these late-round guys pan out.
Far more commonly, when a player isn’t picked earlier, it’s because teams have correctly figured out that they’re not good enough for NFL purposes.
On these kind of players, I’m always more interested in looking at the reverse again. That is, is there value in using the defense playing against them, picking up sacks and turnovers.
In this particular case, Spencer Rattler didn’t do anything too out of the ordinary in the preseason, completing 20 of 38, with a touchdown, 3 sacks and no interceptions.
But out of curiosity, let’s roll out the bigger-picture numbers.
In the 32-team era, there have been 35 quarterbacks selected after the third round who started games as rookies. These guys went 9-26 in their initial starts, completing 58 percent of their passes and averaging 179 passing yards, with 22 TDs and 45 interceptions. Of those interceptions, 6 were returned for touchdowns the other way. And I’m seeing 90 sacks (2.6 per game, on average).
In the chart below, I’ve got the players who won their first starts tagged with black dots.
DEBUT STARTS FOR LIGHTLY REGARDED ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rd | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
2002 | David Garrard, Jac. | 4 | at Ind. | L 13-20 | 13 | 26 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
2002 | Randy Fasani, Car. | 5 | T.B. | L 9-12 | 5 | 18 | 46 | 0 | 3 |
2003 | Ken Dorsey, S.F. | 7 | at N.O. | L 27-30 | 18 | 32 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
2004 | John Navarre, Ari. | 7 | at Det. | L 12-26 | 18 | 40 | 168 | 1 | 4 |
2004 | • Craig Krenzel, Chi. | 5 | S.F. | W 23-13 | 13 | 25 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
2004 | Luke McCown, Cle. | 4 | N.E. | L 15-42 | 20 | 34 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 4 | at Was. | L 7-9 | 15 | 28 | 141 | 0 | 1 |
2005 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, St.L. | 7 | Was. | L 9-24 | 21 | 36 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 6 | at N.O. | L 21-24 | 20 | 31 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
2007 | Troy Smith, Balt. | 5 | at Sea. | L 6-27 | 16 | 33 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
2008 | Josh Johnson, T.B. | 5 | at Was. | L 13-16 | 13 | 22 | 106 | 1 | 1 |
2009 | Keith Null, St.L. | 6 | at Ten. | L 7-47 | 28 | 44 | 165 | 1 | 5 |
2010 | • John Skelton, Ari. | 5 | Den. | W 43-13 | 15 | 37 | 146 | 0 | 0 |
2010 | • Joe Webb, Min. | 6 | at Phil. | W 24-14 | 17 | 26 | 195 | 0 | 0 |
2010 | Rusty Smith, Ten. | 6 | at Hou. | L 0-20 | 17 | 31 | 138 | 0 | 3 |
2011 | • T.J. Yates, Hou. | 5 | Atl. | W 17-10 | 12 | 25 | 188 | 1 | 0 |
2012 | • Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4 | at Cle. | W 38-21 | 26 | 37 | 329 | 2 | 1 |
2012 | Ryan Lindley, Ari. | 6 | St.L. | L 17-31 | 31 | 52 | 312 | 0 | 4 |
2014 | • AJ McCarron, Cin. | 5 | at S.F. | W 24-14 | 15 | 21 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
2014 | Zach Mettenberger, Ten. | 6 | Hou. | L 16-30 | 27 | 41 | 299 | 2 | 1 |
2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4 | NYG | L 19-20 | 25 | 45 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
2016 | Jeff Driskel, S.F. | 6 | Den. | L 10-24 | 25 | 37 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
2017 | Nathan Peterman, Buff. | 5 | at LAC | L 24-54 | 6 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 5 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 6 | at Hou. | L 12-13 | 23 | 33 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
2019 | Ryan Finley, Cin. | 4 | Balt. | L 13-49 | 16 | 30 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
2020 | Ben DiNucci, Dall. | 7 | at Phil. | L 9-23 | 21 | 40 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
2020 | Jake Luton, Jac. | 6 | Hou. | L 25-27 | 26 | 38 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
2021 | Ian Book, N.O. | 4 | Mia. | L 3-20 | 12 | 20 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
2022 | • Brock Purdy, S.F. | 7 | T.B. | W 35-7 | 16 | 21 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
2022 | • Bailey Zappe, N.E. | 4 | Det. | W 29-0 | 17 | 21 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
2022 | Skylar Thompson, Mia. | 7 | Min. | L 16-24 | 7 | 13 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
2023 | • Jaren Hall, Min. | 5 | at Atl. | W 31-28 | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
2023 | Aidan O'Connell, L.V. | 4 | at LAC | L 17-24 | 24 | 39 | 238 | 0 | 1 |
2023 | Clayton Tune, Ari. | 5 | at Cle. | L 0-27 | 11 | 20 | 58 | 0 | 2 |
2023 | D. Thompson-Robinson, Cle. | 5 | Balt. | L 3-28 | 19 | 36 | 121 | 0 | 3 |
2024 | Spencer Rattler, N.O. | 5 | T.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan