PITTSBURGH (at L.V.): The Steelers have been unable to get their offense going. They managed 24 points in a loss at Indianapolis (which ranks next-to-last in scoring defense), but the offense has scored only 5 TDs in its other four games.
This snippet was first published on October 9.
They finished with 226 net yards at home against a Dallas defense that’s been struggling. They’re just not good enough. A game against Las Vegas might help, with the Raiders seemingly sliding towards implosion. Hapless Carolina scored a season-high 4 TDs at Las Vegas in Week 3, and Denver’s offense scored a season-high 3 against them last week. So 2 TDs looks pretty likely. But the Steelers look hopelessly broken right now. They won in this building a year ago, but without good numbers – a 72-yard touchdown pass, but only one other touchdown in a 23-18 win.
On paper, it’s a a good matchup for the running game, but we’ve been here before – like Lucy Van Pelt holding for a field goal attempt. The Steelers couldn’t run it against the Colts, who had allowed a pair of 150-yard runners. They couldn’t run it against the Cowboys, who got pounded into mush by the Saints and Ravens. It may be time to concede that they simply can’t run it. Najee Harris is averaging 54 rushing yards, at 3.3 per attempt, and he hasn’t scored all year. He’s a pretty ordinary back, it seems (a poor man’s Derrick Henry), and trying to operate behind an injury-affected line. Best we can offer is that Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson are both out, ensuring he’ll get plenty of touches. Harris has averaged 4 receptions for 35 yards in his last three games. The Raiders have a bottom-10 run defense, but their worst two games were their first two. Harris wasn’t great against them last year (19 carries, 65 yards).
Justin Fields has probably played better than was expected. He’s completed 68 percent of his passes, with 5 TDs, 1 interception, and a 3-2 win-loss record. But he’s still Justin Fields, without the vision, accuracy and decision-making skills to reliably work from the pocket. He was remarkably bad against an injury-riddled Dallas defense, completing only 15 of 27 passes for 131 yards – that on a night the running game wasn’t working. With back-to-back losses against lesser defenses, the Russell Wilson watch is now in effect. Wilson is practicing fully for the first time all year, with the potential to take over in the second half if the offense is struggling. The matchup itself is above-average, but it’s something short of what you might call choice. While Andy Dalton of all people had a big game against this defense, the Raiders are allowing only 218 passing yards per game, with 8 TDs. Those are average numbers. And the Steelers are averaging only 196 passing yards, with 5 TDs in five games. If Fields finishes with above-average numbers, it will be fueled by him doing something as a runner. He’s averaging 34 rushing yards per week, and he’s scored all 3 of the team’s rushing touchdowns on his own.
With Fields at quarterback, it’s tough to get behind George Pickens. Pickens might be one of the 15-20 best wide receivers in the league, but Fields doesn’t seem to be quite good enough to reliably unlock him. Pickens has no touchdowns in five games. For ballpark purposes, he’s got two good games (catching 13 passes for 198 yards against the Falcons and Colts), two lousy games (5 catches for 55 yards against Denver and Dallas) and one mediocre game (5 for 57 against the Chargers). The Raiders have a modest defense, but only one wide receiver has had a big game against them (former Steeler Diontae Johnson caught 8 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown in this building in Week 3).
Pittsburgh’s other wide receivers aren’t worth discussion. Van Jefferson also played with Arthur Smith last year, and his nine games in a starting role, he’s caught 12 passes for 100 yards and no touchdowns. Calvin Austin caught a long touchdown at Las Vegas last year and a long touchdown in Week 3, but he hasn’t scored or even caught more than 1 pass in his last 14 other games.
We’ll sign off on Pat Freiermuth. While most of the offense is underperforming, he’s playing better than expected. He caught only 32 passes and 2 TDs in 12 games last year, with only one week with more than 3 catches. He’s caught 20 passes and 2 TDs this year, with only one game with fewer than 4 catches. He’s the one pass catcher where fantasy owners may be hoping that Justin Fields stays in the lineup.
Chris Boswell is a quality kicker, with unusual accuracy on attempts from 50-plus. But the last two weeks are a reminder that the offense at times simply won’t move the ball, with only 6 and 5 kicking points against the Colts and Cowboys. That risk goes down this week, with the Raiders allowing multiple field goals in all but one of their games.
The Steelers Defense looks very good, with its strong pass rush working against an overmatched offensive line. The Steelers are averaging just under 3 sacks per game, with 8 takeaways, while the Raiders are allowing just over 3 sacks, with 9 turnovers. The Raiders are mulling whether to start Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell, but it shouldn’t matter much (they may both play). For whatever it’s worth Minshew beat the Steelers last year when he was with the Colts, with 3 sacks but no turnovers.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 6 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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