That’s a nice start for Drake Maye. Just two starts, but he’s starting to look like he might be a thing.
He passed for 243 yards and 3 TDs in his first start (against Houston), and he followed it up with 276 yards and 2 TDs in London against the Jaguars.
Admittedly, that’s a pretty awful Jacksonville defense, but Maye looks pretty good, completing 66 percent of his passes in those starts, and without much around him. He’s driving the ball downfield, and he’s picking up first downs with his legs.
In the last 10 years, 58 quarterbacks have started at least two games as rookie. Only one put up more passing production in his first two starts. (Using 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards.)
I’m not doing anything with mobility in the chart below, but Maye can also run. He’s scrambled for 38 and 18 yards in those games.
If we take those stats and then merge them with some career numbers, the results look pretty good. That is, when a player throws for a bunch of yards and touchdowns in his first two games, those guys tend to have good careers.
Of the top dozen listed below, two thirds at some point in their career ranked in the top 11 in per-game production (using standard fantasy scoring, which does include rushing production). The four exceptions of those 12 are Drew Lock and Will Levis (who haven’t had a good season year), and Marcus Mariota and Sam Darnold. In Mariota’s best stat season, he ranked 14th among quarterbacks in per-game production. Darnold seems to be working on his first viable season right now.
I was leery of Maye when the Patriots picked him, but I’m feeling better about him. He might even merit a Superflex start in Week 8, given the way the Jets have declined defensively the last two weeks.
In the chart, the final column shows the player's rank in per-game production next to other quarterbacks who started at least half of that season. (For players with no number, they haven't yet started at least half of a season.)
| BEST ROOKIE STARTS (last 10 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Pts/G | Best |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 34 | 52 | 466 | 6 | 0 | 23.7 | 14 |
| 2024 | Drake Maye, N.E. | 46 | 70 | 519 | 5 | 2 | 23.0 | -- |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 46 | 84 | 637 | 3 | 3 | 21.9 | 11 |
| 2019 | Drew Lock, Den. | 40 | 55 | 443 | 5 | 2 | 21.1 | 26 |
| 2020 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 41 | 74 | 505 | 4 | 0 | 20.6 | 2 |
| 2023 | Will Levis, Ten. | 41 | 68 | 500 | 4 | 1 | 20.5 | 25 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 54 | 94 | 657 | 2 | 1 | 20.4 | 3 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 57 | 82 | 641 | 2 | 2 | 20.0 | 2 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 46 | 67 | 561 | 3 | 2 | 20.0 | 8 |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 58 | 91 | 626 | 2 | 0 | 19.7 | 7 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 41 | 62 | 532 | 3 | 3 | 19.3 | 18 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 42 | 84 | 450 | 4 | 5 | 19.3 | 11 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 60 | 97 | 509 | 3 | 1 | 18.7 | 4 |
| 2022 | Bailey Zappe, N.E. | 41 | 55 | 497 | 3 | 1 | 18.4 | -- |
| 2023 | Tommy DeVito, NYG | 32 | 53 | 332 | 5 | 1 | 18.3 | -- |
| 2019 | David Blough, Det. | 46 | 78 | 485 | 3 | 3 | 18.1 | -- |
| 2022 | Brock Purdy, S.F. | 33 | 47 | 402 | 4 | 0 | 18.1 | 6 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 43 | 71 | 468 | 3 | 0 | 17.7 | 2 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 43 | 63 | 417 | 3 | 0 | 16.4 | 12 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 30 | 54 | 417 | 3 | 2 | 16.4 | 2 |
| 2020 | Jake Luton, Jac. | 44 | 73 | 473 | 2 | 2 | 15.8 | -- |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 39 | 70 | 468 | 2 | 5 | 15.7 | 26 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 33 | 55 | 441 | 2 | 2 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 31 | 52 | 441 | 2 | 2 | 15.0 | -- |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 37 | 63 | 348 | 3 | 1 | 14.7 | 8 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 37 | 57 | 426 | 2 | 2 | 14.7 | 5 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 32 | 50 | 341 | 3 | 0 | 14.5 | 8 |
| 2016 | Cody Kessler, Cle. | 49 | 73 | 467 | 1 | 1 | 13.7 | 31 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 51 | 69 | 467 | 1 | 0 | 13.7 | 26 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 47 | 75 | 519 | 0 | 0 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 34 | 57 | 358 | 2 | 1 | 13.0 | -- |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 25 | 52 | 350 | 2 | 0 | 12.8 | 32 |
| 2019 | Devlin Hodges, Pitt. | 29 | 41 | 344 | 2 | 2 | 12.6 | -- |
| 2024 | Spencer Rattler, N.O. | 47 | 75 | 415 | 1 | 2 | 12.4 | -- |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | 35 | 61 | 404 | 1 | 4 | 12.1 | 21 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 39 | 74 | 402 | 1 | 2 | 12.1 | -- |
| 2023 | Tyson Bagent, Chi. | 46 | 66 | 394 | 1 | 2 | 11.9 | -- |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 45 | 70 | 394 | 1 | 1 | 11.9 | 29 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 42 | 71 | 299 | 2 | 2 | 11.5 | 28 |
| 2023 | Aidan O'Connell, L.V. | 40 | 64 | 447 | 0 | 1 | 11.2 | 24 |
| 2024 | Jayden Daniels, Was. | 40 | 53 | 410 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | -- |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 27 | 44 | 328 | 1 | 3 | 10.2 | 1 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 35 | 59 | 327 | 1 | 1 | 10.2 | -- |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 20 | 41 | 241 | 2 | 1 | 10.0 | 10 |
| 2024 | Bo Nix, Den. | 46 | 77 | 384 | 0 | 4 | 9.6 | -- |
| 2019 | Ryan Finley, Cin. | 29 | 61 | 282 | 1 | 2 | 9.1 | -- |
| 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 30 | 47 | 279 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | -- |
| 2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 30 | 49 | 255 | 1 | 4 | 8.4 | 25 |
| 2022 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 35 | 59 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 | 22 |
| 2016 | Jacoby Brissett, N.E. | 28 | 46 | 308 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 | 17 |
| 2023 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cle. | 43 | 79 | 286 | 0 | 4 | 7.2 | -- |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 17 | 37 | 277 | 0 | 1 | 6.9 | 6 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 37 | 66 | 267 | 0 | 2 | 6.7 | -- |
| 2022 | Skylar Thompson, Mia. | 27 | 44 | 241 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | -- |
| 2019 | Will Grier, Car. | 28 | 52 | 228 | 0 | 4 | 5.7 | -- |
| 2017 | Nathan Peterman, Buff. | 11 | 24 | 123 | 1 | 5 | 5.1 | -- |
| 2023 | Jaren Hall, Min. | 10 | 16 | 145 | 0 | 1 | 3.6 | -- |
| 2022 | Malik Willis, Ten. | 11 | 26 | 135 | 0 | 1 | 3.4 | -- |
—Ian Allan