Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Special Brown-out edition. Can Nick Chubb return to being an elite back? Does 2024 Jameis = 2023 Flacco? And what to make of Cedric Tillman? And more.
Question 1
Curious about Nick Chubb ranking as your preseason ranking anticipated him coming back and he was ranked higher then vs now.
Michael David (nashville, TN)
In Chubb’s last three seasons, the Browns ranked 3rd, 4th and 6th in rushing. They averaged 144 rushing yards in those seasons, with 60 TD runs in 51 games. They slipped to 12th in rushing last year without him, averaging 119 yards, with 15 TDs. So I went into this season thinking this would probably be a top-10 rushing team. That hasn’t been the case. They currently rank 28th in rushing. They’re averaging 93 rushing yards, and with 3 TDs in eight games. Now, maybe Chubb and the offensive line get healthier, with things trending upwards. And maybe there’s a spark of sorts from Jameis Winston. But it doesn’t look likely to me that they’re going to return to anything close to those kind of rushing figures that Kevin Stefanski offenses have put up in the past.
Question 2
What do you hear of the return to play this year of Pacheco and Nico Collins?
Craig Leedy (Sacramento, CA)
Aaron Wilson has been covering the Texans for years, with the Houston Chronicle and now with a television station in the area. He had a report saying everything is going smoothly for Collins – that he’ll be back in Week 10. I haven’t seen anything new on Isiah Pacheco. He was injured in Week 2 and the original timeline was 6-to-8 weeks, so we’re in the window where he could be re-joining the team for practices. They’re doing fine without him, so I don’t think they’ll be taking any chances in his return – they’ll want to have him for the postseason.
Question 3
Do you think Jameis can emulate what Flacco did at the end of last season with this team? I realize Cooper is gone (so a 260+ yard game for a receiver is probably not going to happen), but Jameis did look good running their offense, and he is the poster child for YOLO throws.
Robert Cummings (Los Angeles, CA)
He’s got some Ryan Fitzpatrick in him, with a willingness to let it rip. I like that. I’d rather see a guy go down swinging, rather than settling for checkdowns underneath on third-and-long, happy to send out the punt team. Winston’s given that team and that fanbase a spark, bringing back the hope that they can win some games. They’ve got a couple of games coming up against the 7-2 Steelers, and those just got a lot more interesting. But hoping for a Flacco-type impact, that’s setting the bar awfully high. Flacco averaged 321 passing yards in his six starts last year, with 14 touchdowns. I think with Winston, the more realistic hope would be that he’ll average about 250 passing yards for the duration, with 1-2 touchdowns per week.
Question 4
In my dynasty league, my team is overall pretty weak but was able to win last year with good amount of luck and spot starts. With winning, I traded away my first round 2025 pick next year (winning gets last pick) for Rashee Rice amidst the very early suspension figuring my first-round pick would end up being towards the bottom of the round anyway with another strong finish. Sure enough, after a couple early injuries and bad beats I sit in last place and likely would have had the first overall pick. The new owner of my pick is only interested in Amon-Ra St. Brown or a package deal including him. Is there anyone worthy next year to give him up? Ashton Jeanty comes to mind but not sure he'd be better than St. Brown in a dynasty format? My team currently consists of Bijan, Najee, Chase Brown, St Brown, Puka, Rashee Rice, Shakir.
Graham Ginn (Ocean View, NJ)
There’s still plenty of college football season left, but it’s sure looking like Ashton Jeanty (the running back from Boise State) will be the first rookie drafted in every fantasy league next year. I haven’t looked at him extensively, but he looked like an instant-impact guy in his 4-TD game against Washington State. He’s averaging 8.7 yards per carry. He’s gone over 10 yards a carry in four of his seven games, and under 7 yards per attempt in only one of them. He’s averaging 197 rushing yards per game. I expect Jeanty will be one of the top half dozen running backs on the vast majority of draft boards heading into next year. If you want him, it’s going to take something good – something along the line of St. Brown – to get him.
Question 5
Last week the commentary on a Stroud for Love trade was, "Love is ranked so much higher than Stroud in the last Redrafter it's not even a question. I'm surprised anyone is trading away Love these days." Love is now 16 and Stroud 20. Is Love now a tradeable asset?
Scott Fitch (San Mateo, CA)
I wouldn’t be looking to trade Love. With the Redrafter, keep in mind that those rankings are numerically driven. You settle on expected per-game averages for each guy, then multiple that production by the number of games each quarterback is going to play. With Love, he’s got a groin injury that likely will keep him out this week, and he also still has a bye coming up. He’s projected to play a game less than most of the other quarterbacks. At this point in the season, a game is about 10 percent of what’s left in the season. If we look at just per-game production, Love isn’t the 16th quarterback, he’s tied for 6th. I would much rather than on his groin and bye issues rather than wonder if Houston can get its passing game off the ground.
Question 6
Should I drop Mayfield for Caleb?
Robert Green (San Francisco, CA)
Chris Godwin is out for the year, and Mike Evans is down for two more games, but I think second-half Mayfield will probably be a top-10 quarterback. He went for 330 yards and 3 TDs without those guys on Sunday against an above-average Atlanta pass defense. I would not be thinking about releasing him to make room for Caleb Williams. Williams is a talent, but they’re still in the process of trying to figure out how to put it all together.
Question 7
You have Dalton Kincaid listed as your dynasty TE8, but in the latest Redrafter, he’s listed as the TE22. Seems like there’s a disconnect there. Why is he ranked so low in the Redrafter?
Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)
I put together both of those lists. With dynasty rankings, I’m looking at age and long-term potential. Dalton Kincaid is a former first-round pick who’s done some good things in his first two seasons. He’ll be sticking around as a starter for one of the league’s best offenses, with the potential he’ll emerge as a solid producer. I think that makes him one of the top dozen tight ends. From 10,000 feet, he doesn’t look all that different than Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet and Tucker Kraft. But in the Redrafter, we’re looking at 2024. The emphasis is more on what the player is right now. Kincaid is averaging 3.5 catches for 38 yards, and he’s caught 2 of his team’s 14 touchdowns. If there’s a reason we should believe Kincaid’s next eight games are going to be notably different than his last eight, I’m not seeing it. For this season, I think we’re looking at a modest mid-level tight end.
Question 8
Is Cedric Tillman’s production sustainable?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
He’s caught 15 passes for 180 yards and 2 TDs in his last two games. That kind of production, of course, won’t be continuing. (If you had a receiver you thought would average 7.5 catches, 90 yards and a touchdown per week, you’d take him before Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase). But I think Tillman will be more productive than Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore in most weeks. Note, by the way, that Moore has also come on recently, with 14 catches for 126 yards in his last two games. And they’ve got David Njoku, who might finish with the team’s best receiving numbers for the duration.
Question 9
I’m scouring the waiver pool in my 14-team league and it’s pretty picked over. Is there anyone on IR that we’re all forgetting about that can come back and be a difference maker?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
Maybe look at Carolina. Jonathon Brooks and Adam Thielen both were practicing last week; I expect they’ll be activated soon. With the Panthers having dished off Diontae Johnson, it’s possible Thielen will have a decent role in that (admittedly limited) passing game. I think they’ll be sticking with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker as their starters (Coker is an undrafted rookie, but he’s actually been more productive than Legette over the last month), but if I’m reading it wrong, then maybe Thielen steps in there and does a little something in some games. Brooks was the first running back selected in the draft – a guy who might have been a first-round pick if not for coming in with a knee injury. I think that makes him worth a look. But as well as Chuba Hubbard is playing, I don’t expect Brooks to be doing a whole lot this year. (For fantasy purposes for 2024, I consider him to be a below-average backup running back – behind, for example, Kimani Vidal of the Chargers.)
Question 10
Should I drop NY Jets Def? Chargers are available and I'm thinking Reddick's return might help but L.A. has been rolling.
Robert Green (San Francisco, CA)
Jameis Winston got away with a couple of throws against Baltimore that should have been picked. I think I would rather have the Chargers working against Winston rather than the Jets playing against C.J. Stroud. More specifically, if we’re looking at just sacks, I think the Jets will be at least a sack better than the Chargers this week. If we’re looking at turnovers, I’ll go Chargers over Jets.
Question 11
Can you update your redraft rankings considering the news on D. Hopkins going to K.C. Or just comment on where he would move to in the rankings.
Richard Pappalardo (Bonita Springs, FL)
I think he’s the third option in that passing game. Kelce, Worthy, Hopkins. Inside the red zone, I could see Hopkins moving up to be the No. 2 guy. Of the three, Worthy is the only one with any potential to catch a touchdown from outside the red zone. They’ll have JuJu Smith-Schuster coming back in a week or two, and between the 20s he might catch as many (maybe more) passes as Worthy and Hopkins. I don’t see D-Hop as a priority in fantasy leagues.
Question 12
Utter tailspin post Rashee injury with 4 straight losses sitting 3-5 but only 1 back from the last playoff spot, but am reminded how big of a role luck plays in fantasy football. Who are your favorite potential “league winners” and/or receivers that you expect could outperform rankings outside of the top 20 given no one seems to want to trade top players? 9.3 combined pts from receiver group of Reed, Olave, Shakir, and Cooper last two weeks and desperation is setting in.
Mitchell Ross (Westport, CT)
I’m not starting Reed if Willis is at quarterback. But if Love is playing, I would stick with Reed, hoping he gets back to playing like he did earlier in the season. And I’d stick with Olave, as about the last guy standing in New Orleans. If we’re pulling trades for modest players, how about Tank Dell? With Diggs out for the year, I would think they’ll be pumping him plenty of balls for the duration. And I’d be looking at the Colts and Browns pass catchers, with the potential those passing games are sparked by quarterback changes.