We’re far enough into the season that a lot of defenses are dramatically different than they were back in September. Guys get hurt, rookies develop, schemes are tweaked and lineups change, with what seemed like reality early in the season no longer applying.
Such changes jump out when you look at the early-season numbers versus what’s been happening recently.
Each team has played in at least 12 games, so we can look at the first six games for each team, comparing them with the most recent six (ignoring game No. 7 for teams that have played 13), seeing what bubbles to the surface.
For run defense, Arizona, Miami and Las Vegas have the most improved defenses. The Cardinals allowed 153 yards per game in their first six; they’ve allowed only 81 in their most recent six, and with 6 fewer rushing touchdowns.
The Giants, Steelers and 49ers, on the other hand, have the run defenses heading in the other direction. Combined, those teams allowed only 10 rushing touchdowns in their first six games. They’ve allowed 34 rushing touchdowns since that time.
This kind of stats, of course, are affected by scheduling. Anybody playing Philadelphia or Baltimore will appear to be slipping against the run. But they can point us in the right direction.
Additionally on run defenses, three have improved by least .8 yards per carry – Raiders (1.4!), Arizona and Buffalo. The three that have declined the most in that metric: Steelers, Ravens, Panthers.
The complete numbers. The percentage shift uses fantasy scoring system of 6 points per rushing touchdown and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
| MOST IMPROVED DEFENSES AGAINST THE RUN | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | First 6 Games | Last 6 Games | Diff |
| Arizona | 153 YPG, 8 TD | 81 YPG, 2 TD | 56% |
| Miami | 130 YPG, 9 TD | 84 YPG, 2 TD | 53% |
| Las Vegas | 140 YPG, 7 TD | 89 YPG, 4 TD | 39% |
| Denver | 114 YPG, 4 TD | 74 YPG, 2 TD | 38% |
| New England | 130 YPG, 7 TD | 111 YPG, 2 TD | 34% |
| Atlanta | 142 YPG, 4 TD | 99 YPG, 2 TD | 34% |
| Seattle | 144 YPG, 6 TD | 109 YPG, 4 TD | 27% |
| Buffalo | 140 YPG, 4 TD | 103 YPG, 3 TD | 26% |
| Tampa Bay | 113 YPG, 8 TD | 121 YPG, 3 TD | 22% |
| Detroit | 92 YPG, 6 TD | 94 YPG, 3 TD | 18% |
| LA Rams | 151 YPG, 6 TD | 136 YPG, 4 TD | 17% |
| Carolina | 153 YPG, 12 TD | 180 YPG, 6 TD | 12% |
| Houston | 113 YPG, 4 TD | 110 YPG, 3 TD | 9% |
| Cincinnati | 146 YPG, 7 TD | 110 YPG, 9 TD | 7% |
| Minnesota | 80 YPG, 3 TD | 82 YPG, 2 TD | 7% |
| Cleveland | 137 YPG, 8 TD | 119 YPG, 9 TD | 3% |
| Indianapolis | 155 YPG, 6 TD | 132 YPG, 8 TD | 1% |
| Philadelphia | 115 YPG, 3 TD | 94 YPG, 5 TD | 1% |
| Kansas City | 90 YPG, 4 TD | 85 YPG, 5 TD | -4% |
| New Orleans | 133 YPG, 7 TD | 138 YPG, 8 TD | -7% |
| Dallas | 143 YPG, 10 TD | 152 YPG, 11 TD | -8% |
| Green Bay | 110 YPG, 4 TD | 103 YPG, 6 TD | -9% |
| LA Chargers | 111 YPG, 3 TD | 127 YPG, 3 TD | -12% |
| Washington | 137 YPG, 5 TD | 143 YPG, 7 TD | -14% |
| Chicago | 112 YPG, 6 TD | 158 YPG, 6 TD | -27% |
| Jacksonville | 113 YPG, 7 TD | 153 YPG, 8 TD | -27% |
| Baltimore | 59 YPG, 5 TD | 99 YPG, 5 TD | -37% |
| NY Jets | 124 YPG, 5 TD | 128 YPG, 12 TD | -43% |
| Tennessee | 105 YPG, 5 TD | 134 YPG, 9 TD | -44% |
| San Francisco | 101 YPG, 5 TD | 138 YPG, 14 TD | -85% |
| Pittsburgh | 85 YPG, 2 TD | 95 YPG, 10 TD | -85% |
| NY Giants | 116 YPG, 3 TD | 175 YPG, 10 TD | -88% |
Trotting out the same numbers for passing, the 49ers, Packers and Commanders have had the most improved pass defenses (using scoring of 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards).
The Dolphins (as noted in Andy’s game preview this week), Broncos and Atlanta have the pass defenses that have declined the most. In the case of Miami, it’s allowed 104 more passing yards (per game) in its last six than it did early in the season.
There are additional metrics in this category that I won’t publish (wanting to keep it clean) but will mention the leaders. The Cardinals, Chargers and Panthers have the most improved pass rushes, all with 9-12 more sacks. The Giants, Vikings and Lions have the pass rushes that have declined the most (all slipping by 8-16 sacks).
I also see that Detroit, Washington and New England all have completion percentage rates in their last six that are at least 6 lower than what they were doing early in the season. Teams that have fallen off in completion percentage (with rates that are now 8-12 higher include the Titans, Dolphins and Kansas City. (And I’ll mention Trent McDuffie of KC by name, so that I have artwork for the article.)
| MOST IMPROVED DEFENSES AGAINST THE PASS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | First 6 Games | Last 6 Games | Diff |
| San Francisco | 227 YPG, 8 TD | 174 YPG, 7 TD | 20% |
| Green Bay | 248 YPG, 10 TD | 222 YPG, 6 TD | 19% |
| Washington | 232 YPG, 12 TD | 196 YPG, 9 TD | 19% |
| Minnesota | 287 YPG, 10 TD | 244 YPG, 8 TD | 16% |
| Baltimore | 298 YPG, 11 TD | 254 YPG, 9 TD | 16% |
| Arizona | 230 YPG, 10 TD | 240 YPG, 4 TD | 15% |
| Detroit | 264 YPG, 5 TD | 222 YPG, 5 TD | 13% |
| Jacksonville | 290 YPG, 14 TD | 281 YPG, 10 TD | 11% |
| Philadelphia | 210 YPG, 7 TD | 190 YPG, 6 TD | 11% |
| NY Giants | 223 YPG, 7 TD | 202 YPG, 6 TD | 11% |
| Buffalo | 228 YPG, 8 TD | 203 YPG, 8 TD | 8% |
| Indianapolis | 249 YPG, 9 TD | 261 YPG, 7 TD | 2% |
| New Orleans | 277 YPG, 5 TD | 249 YPG, 7 TD | 2% |
| Carolina | 231 YPG, 12 TD | 243 YPG, 10 TD | 2% |
| Dallas | 226 YPG, 9 TD | 233 YPG, 8 TD | 1% |
| Pittsburgh | 228 YPG, 7 TD | 246 YPG, 5 TD | 1% |
| LA Rams | 227 YPG, 10 TD | 242 YPG, 10 TD | -5% |
| Seattle | 214 YPG, 9 TD | 242 YPG, 8 TD | -6% |
| New England | 241 YPG, 7 TD | 219 YPG, 14 TD | -15% |
| Kansas City | 222 YPG, 7 TD | 248 YPG, 10 TD | -19% |
| Houston | 185 YPG, 12 TD | 256 YPG, 11 TD | -20% |
| LA Chargers | 198 YPG, 6 TD | 244 YPG, 8 TD | -26% |
| Cincinnati | 216 YPG, 10 TD | 285 YPG, 12 TD | -28% |
| Tennessee | 179 YPG, 7 TD | 193 YPG, 13 TD | -30% |
| Tampa Bay | 272 YPG, 6 TD | 281 YPG, 15 TD | -30% |
| NY Jets | 170 YPG, 4 TD | 225 YPG, 5 TD | -31% |
| Chicago | 202 YPG, 4 TD | 248 YPG, 7 TD | -32% |
| Cleveland | 210 YPG, 6 TD | 263 YPG, 10 TD | -34% |
| Las Vegas | 206 YPG, 8 TD | 255 YPG, 13 TD | -35% |
| Atlanta | 199 YPG, 8 TD | 257 YPG, 13 TD | -39% |
| Denver | 190 YPG, 5 TD | 298 YPG, 11 TD | -70% |
| Miami | 164 YPG, 3 TD | 268 YPG, 10 TD | -89% |
—Ian Allan