Trevor Lawrence was placed on IR today. Apparently he's going to undergo shoulder surgery, so the move isn't only related to the concussion he suffered on Sunday. That might have been enough to end his season, but the shoulder was also an issue.
I've seen stories even prior to this kind of trashing Lawrence, pointing out that he's been disappointing considering all the hype he entered the league with. He was supposed to be a generational prospect like say Peyton Manning, and instead he's been to one Pro Bowl, has a career record of 22-38, and has appeared in 2 playoff games.
I thought I'd see how he measured up to all other first-round quarterbacks from the past decade. So I pulled the numbers from pro-football-reference.com. I went with guys who had made at least 20 starts, to leave out this year's rookies.
Determining what were good numbers to include, I went with completion percentage, TDs and interceptions, passing yards per game, and passer rating. Table is sorted by passer rating.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2015-PRESENT (20+ STARTS) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Draft | GS | Cmp% | TD | Int | Y/G | Rate |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2017 | 108 | 66.7 | 238 | 74 | 290.8 | 102.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2018 | 90 | 64.9 | 154 | 48 | 193.7 | 100.8 |
| Joe Burrow | 2020 | 64 | 67.9 | 127 | 42 | 272.2 | 100.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2017 | 72 | 66.2 | 123 | 48 | 245.3 | 98.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2020 | 59 | 68.0 | 96 | 41 | 242.0 | 98.6 |
| Justin Herbert | 2020 | 74 | 66.2 | 127 | 43 | 267.2 | 96.0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2023 | 28 | 63.6 | 38 | 14 | 258.0 | 94.9 |
| Jared Goff | 2016 | 129 | 65.2 | 207 | 91 | 259.0 | 94.7 |
| Jordan Love | 2020 | 28 | 63.5 | 55 | 25 | 196.8 | 94.5 |
| Josh Allen | 2018 | 105 | 63.4 | 187 | 83 | 239.6 | 93.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 2019 | 77 | 66.9 | 107 | 52 | 237.0 | 92.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2018 | 98 | 63.1 | 155 | 85 | 231.3 | 89.8 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2015 | 74 | 62.8 | 95 | 55 | 174.2 | 89.6 |
| Carson Wentz | 2016 | 93 | 62.7 | 153 | 67 | 232.2 | 89.4 |
| Jameis Winston | 2015 | 85 | 61.2 | 152 | 106 | 231.7 | 87.1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2017 | 57 | 64.1 | 72 | 48 | 165.1 | 85.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | 60 | 63.3 | 69 | 46 | 230.3 | 85.0 |
| Mac Jones | 2021 | 44 | 65.8 | 48 | 39 | 200.6 | 84.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 2019 | 69 | 64.1 | 70 | 47 | 208.3 | 84.3 |
| Justin Fields | 2021 | 44 | 61.1 | 45 | 31 | 158.8 | 83.9 |
| Sam Darnold | 2018 | 68 | 61.0 | 86 | 66 | 192.5 | 82.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2022 | 24 | 62.4 | 13 | 13 | 160.0 | 78.7 |
| Bryce Young | 2023 | 23 | 59.7 | 17 | 16 | 170.3 | 73.8 |
| Zach Wilson | 2021 | 33 | 57.0 | 23 | 25 | 185.1 | 73.2 |
Looking at passer rating, Lawrence ends up down with a lot of guys who have washed out as NFL starters. (Although some have bounced back, like Darnold, and some it's too early to say, like Bryce Young.) But the guys near the top are (almost) all stars, Mahomes and Lamar and Burrow and Tagovailoa and Herbert. (Deshaun Watson, cough.)
If I'd sorted by passing yards per game, or completion percentage, he'd be middle of the pack. I didn't include touchdowns per game, but we can do some of that in our head. He's thrown 69 touchdowns in 60 games, fewer than, er, Mitchell Trubisky. Most of the guys above him in this table are throwing in the neighborhood of 2 per game -- Mahomes, Burrow, Love, Allen, Goff, etc.
Even though Lawrence is in his fourth season, the jury still seems to be out. He hasn't set the league on fire; hasn't had the success most anticipated. I think most thought Doug Pederson would be a good hire by Jacksonville; with the team 2-10 now, I don't think that's the case. This is probably his last season.
The next hire will be critical. I've heard Belichick speculation; that would be interesting. For Lawrence and the Jaguars' sake, I hope it's a good one.
--Andy Richardson