ARIZONA (vs. Sea.):This would seem like a favorable matchup, with the Seahawks currently below-average in total defense, except Seattle held the Cardinals to just 298 net yards and 2 field goals in a 16-6 win two weeks ago.
This defense is playing a lot better now than earlier in the season. But the Cardinals are home, and the Seahawks have allowed at least 2 TDs in each of their other eight most recent games; 24 total in those contests. That makes 2 TDs from Arizona look pretty likely, with a small chance of making it up to 3 TDs. It's a must-win: if the Cardinals lose, they'll essentially be three games back in the NFC West with four to play.
Kyler Murray threw for 285 yards in the earlier meeting, his 2nd-highest total of the season. But he didn't actually have a good day, with three drives ending in field goal attempts and one a Pick Six that ended up being the game's only touchdown. He took a season-high 5 sacks and ran for only 9 yards (he averages 36 per game). Presumably the Cardinals will figure out some better things in terms of protection and getting the ball in the end zone; Murray has had a hand in 17 touchdowns (13 passing, 4 rushing) in his other 11 games, with only the Washington and Green Bay losses really poor ones for the offense. Seattle ranks 13th in pass defense, allowing 228 yards per week; 2-3 passing touchdowns six times in their last nine games. (And the first three were Nix in his debut, Brissett, and Skylar Thompson/Tim Boyle.) Given the way Murray and this defense have performed for the bulk of the season, something more like 220 yards and 1-2 touchdowns looks fair. Considering the importance of this game, he'll probably be running more than usual.
James Conner had his worst rushing performance of the year at Seattle: 7 carries, 8 yards. But he bounced back to run for 68 yards on 17 carries (4.0) against the league's top-ranked run defense at Minnesota last week. Seattle is just 21st defending the run, but has been better lately (trading for linebacker Ernest Jones looks like the key factor). Including the earlier meeting they've held three of four opponents under 90 rushing yards, with just 1 TD in those four games. But Conner's lesser rushing performances have been offset by some of his best receiving games. The last three times he's been under 35 yards on the ground (at Green Bay, against the Jets and at Seattle) he's caught 4, 5 and 5 passes for 143 yards. Conner has only 5 touchdowns, while Seattle has allowed just 10 rushing scores, and just 1 in the last four weeks (plus a receiving score to the position). Trey Benson doesn't seem like he'll be a factor, getting most of his work in one-sided affairs (just 3-4 touches the last two weeks). Emari Demarcado has 7 carries and a reception in his last three.
Trey McBride has been on fire lately: 12 for 133 at Seattle, and 12 for 96 at Minnesota last week. He scored in the home game against this opponent a year ago. Bizarrely, that's his most recent touchdown reception (his 2 this year are on a fumble recovery and a run). Seattle has allowed just 3 TDs to tight ends.
While Marvin Harrison hasn't knocked it out of the park (just two games with even 65 yards), there's at least been some steady production for the top wideout drafted. He's scored in half of his games and caught at least 5 passes five times. Set aside the game he left early and he's averaging about 4 catches for 55 yards, with 7 touchdowns. Just 3 for 47 at Seattle, with McBride dominating, but presumably the Seahawks might roll a little more coverage the tight end's way. Michael Wilson has put up lesser numbers in every respect: 3.1 receptions for 35 yards per game, with 3 touchdowns. He's been better lately, with 7 catches for 54-55 yards the last two weeks -- and a couple of really impressive grabs in there -- but a modest impact. Wilson caught 6 for 95 in the home game late last season, but was the top wideout at the time. Wideouts have caught 12 touchdowns against Seattle, which is a slightly below average figure.
No news yet on whether Matt Prater is ready to return from IR, or if the Cardinals might not just stick with Chad Ryland anyway. Ryland had 2 field goals in the earlier meeting (Arizona's only points) and 5 at Minnesota, though he also missed from 47 and 45 yards in those games. The Seahawks have been a poor matchup this year, allowing just 6.6 points on average to the position.
The Cardinals Defense has exceeded expectations, with 34 sacks (9th) and a middle-of-the-pack 13 takeaways. They sacked Geno Smith 5 times and got an interception in the earlier meeting, and Smith (while delivering some clutch drives) has been a good matchup in both areas, taking 40 sacks while throwing 12 interceptions. The Cardinals have former Seahawks DeeJay Dallas on returns, and he brought a kickoff back for a score earlier in the season.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 14 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst Package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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9 Reader Comments:
Chase Grainger
Ray Davis or Amari Cooper - Who do you like more for the ROS?
Neither is cracking my starting lineup (unless I have two injuries) right now.
I was thinking Davis just because if Cook gets injured, Davis could be a league winner. Unless Cooper has two monster games in weeks 14 and 15, I don't think that he could be a league winner. Thoughts?
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)
If you did need a starter, Cooper would be better (we actually have him ranked in the top 45 WRs this week, at the Rams).
If Cook gets hurt, Davis could in fact be a league-winner. Bills are home against the Jets and Patriots in Week 16 and 17. I don't believe there's a Buffalo injury that would make Cooper great (if one of their WRs gets hurt, I think they'll still have multiple involved players at the position).
I guess I'd prefer to stash Davis.
Ben Hogevoll
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)
Andrew Napoli
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)
I like to just look at the schedule for each Week and see which credible, available defenses are playing the quarterbacks who we know are great matchups. Will Levis (I mignt be starting Jax this week), The Giants, youngsters like Drake, Caleb. And Jameis Winston.
Andy Richardson (Fantasy Index)
Richard Micheli
Richard Micheli