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Fantasy Index Weekly

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WASHINGTON (vs. Ten.): The Commanders looked like an up-and-coming offense early in the season, scoring 14 touchdowns in a three-game stretch.

This snippet was first published on November 27.

They had a couple of games where they scored on every drive. But that’s all gone now, with defenses having made adjustments and better opponents have shown up on the schedule. Washington has averaged only 306 net yards in its last three. It’s managed 8 TDs in those games, but that includes a couple of unlikely last-minute scores and a gifted touchdown on an ill-advised fake punt. Here they’re playing a 3-8 opponent, but one with an above-average defense. Tennessee has allowed the 2nd-fewest yards in the league. The Titans rank 27th in scoring defense, but that’s fueled in part by allowing a league-worst 5 TDs on turnovers. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 28 touchdowns, which is close to the league average. About 2-3 TDs for the Commanders, most likely.

Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler left the Dallas game with injuries that almost certainly will sideline them until after Week 14 bye. That elevates Jeremy McNichols into the starting lineup. He’s been bouncing around the league for eight years, with 12 stints with 10 different franchises (and not much traction with any of them). But McNichols merits consideration this week, given how the Commanders can run the ball, with a mobile quarterback opening things up. When Robinson sat out significant portions of the Arizona, Carolina and Cleveland games, McNichols ran for 154 yards and 3 TDs, averaging at least 6 yards per carry in all of those games. Washington has scored 6 more touchdowns on runs (20) rather than passes(14), and if they can get things rolling somewhat, it will be McNichols who’s running in the touchdowns. On the downside, Robinson missed two other games, and McNichols wasn’t much of a factor in those (12 carries for 27 yards against the Giants and Steelers). In the New York game, Chris Rodriguez (off the practice squad) outplayed McNichols, carrying 11 times for 52 yards. Rodriguez likely will be activated for this game. And McNichols ain’t much of a receiver (2 catches for 7 yards). Also in the negative column, Tennessee ranks 8th against the run. Setting aside the debacle in Detroit, they’ve allowed an average of 89 rushing yards in their last six other games – completely shut down Joe Mixon last week. But the general vibe is thumbs up for McNichols. There are a handful of other waiver-wire running backs sitting out there this week, but he looks better than all of them.

Some of the shine has come off Jayden Daniels. Teams are playing him better, and he’s working with mostly lesser pass catchers. He’s thrown only 3 touchdowns in the last three weeks, and 2 of them came in the final seconds of games. If not for the unlikely shot at the end of the Dallas game, he’d be averaging 198 passing yards in his last four games. Probably more modest passing stats here, with Tennessee ranking No. 1 in pass defense. Tennessee is allowing only 185 passing yards per week. While it’s benefited from facing some lesser teams, only one quarterback has passed for 250 yards against this defense (Josh Allen). Washington is allowing 235 passing yards per game, but probably at least 20 fewer in this one. At the same time, Daniels is always capable of saving his stat line with some timely scrambles. He’s averaging 46 rushing yards per game, with 5 TDs. He wasn’t a factor as a runner against the Pennsylvania teams, making some wonder if he was trying to play hurt, but he ran for 74 yards and a touchdown against Dallas. With Robinson and Ekeler out, Daniels is probably more likely than usual to score a rushing touchdown.

Some of the numbers suggest it’s not a great matchup for Terry McLaurin. The Titans rank No. 1 in pass defense, and wide receivers have caught only 8 of the 17 touchdown passes they’ve allowed. But what are you going to do? McLaurin is the centerpiece of the passing game here. He’s averaged 4.5 catches for 79 yards in his last 10 games, with 7 TDs. Jayden Daniels has thrown 12 TDs, and McLaurin has caught all but 5 of them.

Zach Ertz also looks good. At 34, he can’t run anymore, but he’s still got the veteran smarts to make himself available as a friendly short-range option. In his last seven games, he’s caught 32 passes and 3 TDs, along with a 2-point conversion.

Washington doesn’t have another viable receiver, as evidenced by Noah Brown being their 2nd-leading receiver. He was released by Houston in August, and Dallas kicked him to the curb previously. He’s not fast enough or good enough. He’s caught 32 balls for 426 yards in nine games, with his only touchdown coming on that Hail Mary. As a starter, he’s averaging 3.6 catches for 47 yards.

Washington has three other receivers who are averaging 1-2 catches: Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey and Olamide Zaccheaus. All fail to meet the minimum system requirements – one touchdown for the lot of them.

The Commanders put Austin Seibert on IR, so it should be Zane Gonzalez at kicker for the duration. He looks like a good choice for top-5 numbers this week. Attempting a league-high 35 field goals, Washington is averaging 9.8 kicking points per week. The Titans are allowing 8.2 to the position. Gonzalez filled in for two games previously, making all 7 of his kicks.

The Commanders Defense looks promising. It’s been a middle-of-the-pack option thus far, averaging slightly less than a takeaway per week, but Will Levis is the most defense-friendly quarterback in the league right now. In essentially seven games worth of action, he’s taken 35 sacks, with 9 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles. Washington doesn’t have a notable kick returner right now.

This report is just a small snippet of the Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst Package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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