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Analysis

5x5 Sleepers: Batting Average

These 8 batting average sleepers have a chance to provide great value in 2025 drafts.

Batting average is tougher to find than even, but these hitters could deliver for fantasy rosters in 2025 rotisserie-scoring leagues.

It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates for 2025 or even drafting now.

For nearly a decade, I contributed of series of offseason features at Rotoworld breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5x5 roto categories. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since the hot stove hasn’t heated up much yet, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.

Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.

Mixed League Players

Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Rays

It has become an annual ritual to say Aranda could be valuable if he gets an opportunity. Finally, 2025 could be his chance with Yandy Diaz mentioned in trade rumors. Aranda got some run at first base late last season, starting 20 games, and he’s also made recent MLB appearances at second and third base. Over three seasons of opportunities, Aranda has hit only .222-10-33 in 333 plate appearances, but the minor league track record provides more reason for optimism.

Aranda has been in the Rays system since 2016, and is a career .302 hitter for his minor league career. His upper minors stats are even more impressive, hitting .316/.416/.546 over more than 1,000 plate appearances at Triple-A. While he doesn’t have the best contact rate at Triple-A (22% K%), Aranda has consistently hit and showed strong batted ball numbers in his limited playing time in Tampa Bay last season. With playing time, his power could also benefit this season from the Rays new temporary ballpark at George M. Steinbrenner Field that emulates Yankee Stadium and provides a short porch for a left-handed hitter with power. He remains a speculative draft pick at the time of this writing with an NFBC ADP of around 456 and no clear playing time, but a starting job would make Aranda an intriguing late-round pick.

Evan Carter, OF, Rangers

Carter was one of the hottest commodities of 2024 drafts after his late-season and playoff run. He hit .306-5-12 in 23 games late in 2023 before hitting .300-1-6 in 17 games during the playoffs, and did so after just turning 21. That was following a strong minor league career in which Carter hit .285/.410/.459.

Unfortunately, fantasy managers who drafted Carter last season got burned. Nagged by a back injury, Carter hit only .188-5-15 in 45 games before getting shut down for the year and undergoing back surgery. The ablation procedure on his back after Carter suffered a stress reaction has some fantasy managers removing him from their boards, as evidenced by his ADP near 285, but the upside that we saw from him in 2023 is undeniable. With the additional upside of a 20/20 player, Carter’s cost could be a bargain in spite of the risks.

Jung Hoo Lee, OF, Giants

Lee came to San Francisco last season with great fanfare after signing a six-year, $113 million contract from Korea. His history in the Korean League was spectacular, as a career .340 hitter with a sub-8% K%. He also showed plus power and speed, so there was optimism Lee’s skills would translate to MLB.

After a relatively slow start in 37 games, Lee suffered a season-ending shoulder injury as a rookie and was hitting only .262-2-8 in 158 plate appearances at the time. Those stats made him a fantasy disappointment, even before the injury, but there are promising signs. His K% was still only 8% with the Giants, and he also made fair contact with a 42% hard-hit rate and a .278 xBA. Consecutive years of injuries provide some pause, but the profile here is a clear high batting average hitter with a cheap 268 ADP.

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

A first-round pick in 2023, Wilson’s minor league production should have received more press. He produced video game numbers prior to his MLB promotion, hitting .401/.446/.606 over 337 plate appearances. That production didn’t come as a shock, as Wilson was similarly adept at hitting while playing in college at Grand Canyon, hitting .412 in his final season.

Wilson’s contact rate is unbelievable already. His K% last season was 6% during the minor league season in 2024, and it was a tremendous 8% over 103 plate appearances with the A’s. Unfortunately, Wilson failed to gain momentum in the majors after suffering a hamstring injury upon his promotion and hit only .250 for the season. That does keep his price down heading into 2025, with an ADP near 529. Wilson is likely to be the A’s shortstop on Opening Day, and could make a Luis Arraez-like contribution at a much cheaper rate.

Single League Players

Vaughn Grissom, 2B, Red Sox

Few would have guessed two years ago that Grissom would be mostly undrafted heading into 2025, with the way he hit during his MLB debut in Atlanta. Grissom hit .291-5-18 in 156 plate appearances as a rookie, but he played only 23 games in the majors during 2023 as he worked on his defense. Without a clear spot to play, Grissom was shipped to Boston straight up for Chris Sale last offseason. His first year in the Red Sox org couldn’t have gone much worse, with multiple lower body injuries limiting him to 86 games between Triple-A and Boston.

The production was also lacking for Grissom last season, as he hit only .259 in 234 plate appearances at Worcester and .191 in 31 games in Boston. Those poor numbers are difficult to overlook, but it’s easy to give Grissom a mulligan in the situation. He was banged up for much of the year, and the track record is excellent for the soon-to-be 24-year-old. He hit .307-14-95 with 23 steals in 699 career plate appearances at Triple-A and is a career .301 hitter for his entire minor league career. The contact rate as a minor leaguer is also strong, with a 14% K% for his career. Boston’s strong middle infield depth plays into Grissom’s current 589 ADP, but a rebound in Spring Training would put him in line for playing time.

Nick Loftin, 2B, Royals

Loftin’s first prolonged taste of MLB was a struggle in 2024. He was mostly used as a platoon player against left-handed pitching, but managed to hit just .189-1-14 in 171 plate appearances. His struggles necessitated the addition of Paul DeJong at the trade deadline, and he played only two MLB games over the last two months.

The addition of Jonathan India complicates the playing time situation for Loftin further, but performing up to his minor league track record could get him in the lineup. The 26-year-old has a long track record at Triple-A with 780 plate appearances. Most recently, he was terrific for Omaha hitting .302-7-35 in 254 plate appearances with a strong 15% K%. He’s a solid .276 hitter for his minor league career, and defensive versatility could provide him another chance to contribute this season. Another chance to platoon with Michael Massey could lead to something more.

Javier Sanoja, OF, Marlins

Sanoja got his first cup of coffee with the Marlins in September, having just turned 22. His lack of power hasn’t put him high on prospect lists, but Sanoja has the defensive versatility and skills to be an interesting MLB player. He was terrific at Triple-A Jacksonville in 111 games last season, hitting .291-6-58 with 14 steals and 44/30 BB/K. That contact approach is in line with what he showed at lower levels, with only four more strikeouts than walks for his minor league career and a .277 batting average.

The ability to play the outfield or middle infield makes Sanoja a weapon on a developing roster. He has the speed and defense to make an impact off the bench, but Sanoja’s contact could make him a short-term find for a young team that has reason to see what they have in him. In addition to Sanoja’s strong batting average potential, it should be noted that he showed 85th percentile speed in his brief time with the Marlins.

James Triantos, 2B, Cubs

The Cubs have a strong farm system, so Triantos is a somewhat unknown name in spite of his appearance in the Futures Game last year and presence on top 100 prospect lists. The former second-round pick has mostly played second base recently, but has also appeared in the outfield and third base over the last two years. More importantly for fantasy managers, Triantos has been an offensive force.

He hit .300-7-52 with 47 steals in 115 games between Double- and Triple-A last season, with a great 11% K% in 485 plate appearances. That production is in line with his history as a career .289 minor league hitter up to Triple-A. With only 26 games at Triple-A and Matt Shaw likely ahead of him in the farm system pecking order, Triantos could see more seasoning early in 2025 but has a chance to be a major asset for batting average and steals soon.

--Seth Trachtman

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