Paper boys and wideouts have one thing in common: If they're going to earn a living, they're going to need the routes.

You've heard it on every fifth NFL broadcast for as long as you can remember: 'The NFL is a copycat league!' And it's true; what was once the fabled, Bill Walsh West Coast Offense evolved into Sean Payton's WCO 2.0, with guys like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady authoring versions of their own along the way.

Flash forward to 2025, and nowadays that's just called 'offense': Three-receiver sets, or '11 personnel' are the base offense for just about every NFL team, most pass-catching tight ends can count on one hand how many times they put their hand in the dirt in a given week and fullbacks are on the ragged edge of going the way of the dodo.

And for a time, so it was: You had your perimeter receivers, your Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Mike Williams types whose sheer size and physicality demanded they create the fabled 'mismatches' on the outside; separately you had your slot guys: Wes Welker, Michael Thomas, peak Cooper Kupp, rookie year Amon-Ra St. Brown. Guys who maybe couldn't separate from starting NFL cornerbacks consistently but had the short area lateral quickness and rock steady hands to punish zone coverage soft spots and reliably move the chains on third downs. For a time, one could generally think about NFL receivers in this way.

Then came the rise of pre-snap motion.

The growing proliferation of pre-snap motion has blurred these lines. Receivers that came to the line on the boundary now wind up running their route out of the slot (and vice versa) more than ever before. With this trend showing zero sign of slowing down, I wanted to tumble down the rabbit hole on what recent trends in routes run from the inside/outside have looked like for fantasy's top performers.

The problem is that the data (courtesy of FantasyPoints) is decidedly website unfriendly. In lieu of that, here are some assorted musings from my data perusing.

• Of the NFL's top 30 wide receivers in receiving yardage in 2024, 28 of them ran at least 47 percent of their routes 'wide', i.e. not out of the slot. Twenty-seven of the top 30 topped this mark in 2023; 25 in 2022; 21 in 2021.
• And yet, the inverse is not strictly true. Of the top 30 wide receivers in receiving yardage in 2024, 22 ran at least 25 percent of their snaps out of the slot. Only 19 of the top 30 managed to top that rate in 2023; 21 in each of 2022 and '21. Examined at that threshold, things look strangely stable.
• But if we drop that threshold just a tad, then we start to flush out the truth. Of those same 30 wide receivers, 25 of them ran at least 22 percent of their routes out of the slot (and of the five who didn't, none managed to crack even 20 percent - true perimeter specialists). Only 21 of the top 30 from 2023 topped that mark; 23 in 2022; 21 again in 2021.

Broadly, my takeaway here is that, while we are seeing a net migration of wide receiver routes at least departing from the line of scrimmage back toward the outside, the trend is really toward being formation-agnostic - and quite possibly away from wide receivers being able to amass big numbers operating almost exclusively out of the slot. With that in mind, some thoughts on the usage outlooks of fantasy's most relevant receivers for the season ahead.

• Under new OC Dan Pitcher, Ja'Marr Chase saw his access to the slot surge: His 33.8 percent rate out of the slot was easily a new career high, and his first time over 25. If the volatile speedster Jermaine Burton can keep his nose clean and push for snaps outside, Chase should have no problem approaching last season's 175 targets.
• His career-high 47.6 percent route rate out wide may surprise some, but for Amon-Ra St. Brown it actually marked his third straight year over 40% - his 2024 was no fluke. But with Ben Johnson now on the other side of Lake Michigan, will first-time OC John Morton keep St. Brown so close to usage parity?
• Last year was a major usage outlier for Jerry Jeudy, who saw his slot rate drop to a fairly typical 34.4 percent. Jeudy logged slot rates from 54 to to 77 percent over the previous three seasons; with a return to health by suspected perimeter hog Cedric Tillman and the possibility of confirmed perimeter hog Diontae Johnson earning a significant role, Jeudy's poised for a slot work bounceback.
• CeeDee Lamb saw his routes initiate out of the slot 49.9 percent of the time in 2024, the first time he's dipped under 58 percent since his mildly underwhelming 2021. That was a function of the Cowboys funneling desperation targets into Lamb's breadbasket hither, thither and yon to compensate for a crumbling interior offensive line and a WR2 called "Jalen Tolbert". George Pickens was brought in to directly and meaningfully fix that last part; Lamb should be free to return to the slot in earnest.
• One of the two guys mentioned above to see wildly little usage out wide was Ladd McConkey. He's unlikely to see 72 percent of his routes from the inside again, but the Chargers' offseason progressed as though they were comfortable with that role for the Georgia product: They brought back veteran man coverage annihilator Mike Williams and drafted contested catch artist Tre Harris, neither of which are guys who drink from McConkey's end of the trough. Williams has since retired, but that does nothing to diminish what the Chargers telegraphed all offseason here: They intend to leave McConkey's slot work domination be. (Fun aside: McConkey took 0.9% of his snaps as an inline tight end. Jim Harbaugh, you remain our favorite weirdo.)
• The other major boundary-to-slot ratio bogey was Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In 2024, he and DK Metcalf teamed up to author the sharpest, cleanest usage division by really any starting receivers in the last four seasons: Smith-Njigba stayed inside for a preposterous 83.5 percent of his routes, while Metcalf stuck to the left sideline for an absurd 87.1 percent of his. Smith-Njigba goes from a battery with the league's most prodigious snap-eater on the boundary to the rapidly aging-but-still-redzone-capable Cooper Kupp. Add in a new OC and a new quarterback and it's awfully hard to think of a wide receiver that's looking at a bigger usage shake-up than the one JSN is staring down.
• Speaking of DK Metcalf, he is the lone NFL receiver to finish in the top 30 in receiving yards in each of the last four seasons without once running more than 20 percent of his snaps from the slot. While that isn't likely to change all that much, he does carry a shiny new contract mandate into 2025 and arrives in Pittsburgh to a dearth of target competition unlike any he ever had in Seattle. A new highwater mark in slot work from the league's most slot-averse receiver would make a certain sense here.
• The swap from Kupp to the even older Davante Adams as his running mate should still be good news for Puka Nacua's slot access; Adams actually ran 70 percent of his routes out wide as recently as 2022 (although that stat is a major part of the prosecution's case against Josh McDaniels in his ongoing fantasy war crimes trial). On the motion-happiest offense in the league, Nacua's utilization from the slot is destined to spike this fall.
• The opposite is likely true for Houston's Nico Collins, who is coming off of a (for him) breakthrough slot rate of 24 percent. That number was powered by the Stefon Diggs injury (30.3 percent slot route rate from Week 9 on); the additions of Christian Kirk and Jaylin Noel should push Nico's routes back outside in full.
• A heavy slot operator in New England, Jakobi Meyers has somewhat quietly slid to working primarily from the outside in two years in the desert (66.4 percent of routes out wide in 2024; 72.6 in 2023). That's not necessarily destined to change, but the pieces and the will may already be in place. Side note: Time to let our foot off the gas on any Jack Bech hype for now.
• Boasting a hefty 56.8 percent slot route as the WR15 thru Week 6 of 2024, Jauan Jennings saw that figure plummet to 33.6 upon Ricky Pearsall's Week 7 debut - and a WR36 finish from there on out. The Kyle Shanahan 49ers were at the forefront of the pre-snap revolution and motion at the line as liberally as anybody, so Jennings will still get to the slot a fair amount - but the losses of Deebo Samuel and uncertain availability of Brandon Aiyuk figure to push Jennings out wide a lot.
• Deebo Samuel: Slot Merchant? Samuel's never cracked a 33 percent usage rate from the slot, but he's also never played in an offense with a receiver as usage monochromatic as Terry McLaurin (16.8 percent slot rate last year; under 22 percent last three seasons). The Commanders also hemorrhaged what little WR depth to work inside that they had in the free agency departures of Olamide Zaccheaus (51 percent) and Dyami Brown (24 percent). The stars are aligning for Deebo to have access to the most slot volume of his career.
• If you can make sense of what the immediate future holds for Jayden Reed, you might just be able to game out this Packers' pecking order. One thing is clear: Reed's NFL-worst 14.7% drop rate among receivers with at least 35 targets was a major factor in the Packers moving away from the passing game down the stretch last year (this, in spite of an 89.3 percent catchable target rate that was sixth-best among such receivers). If Reed can't show the drops are behind him over the next few weeks then he can forget about running back his ironclad control over Green Bay's slot role (76.2 percent in 2024) this season.
• From logging a microscopic 12.1 percent slot route rate as a rookie in 2021 to bonafide slot man: Devonta Smith quietly hoovered up slot reps at a 56.3 percent clip in 2024. Kellen Moore was one-and-done as the Philly OC, but new showrunner Kevin Patullo donned the new age 'passing game coordinator' title last year. Usage continuity is in play here.
• Zay Flowers has held his own as a perimeter-oriented player across his first two seasons, but as an (especially) undersized wideout it has felt like a bit of square peg/round hole fit, with the streakiness to match. While some might assume veteran newcomer/Lombardi trophy pursuer DeAndre Hopkins will slide into the slot, I think that's probably wrong: Even at age 32, Hopkins was operating outside for over 73 percent of his routes last season, and OC Todd Monken was all too happy to force feed the nearly-gassed Odell Beckham Jr. 89.5 percent of his routes from the boundary in 2023. Flowers probably crosses the hallowed 40 percent slot rate in 2025.
• Josh Downs' Slot Route Empire of Dirt: Downs has worked out of the slot 84 percent of the time across his two NFL seasons thus far, chasing away all competition in the process (Michael Pittman 26.1 percent, Alec Pierce 15.9). Slot-only guys need high quality targets for efficiency though; Anthony Richardson was fresh out of those last season (63.6 percent catchable throw rate last year, 61st in the league amongst QBs with at least 25 regular season dropbacks). Daniel Jones wasn't exactly good, but his 75.1 catchable throw rate last year might constitute a revelation where Downs is concerned.
• One thing the data suggests is nearly immutably true: Wide receivers trend into the slot more from their rookie season into year 2. Combine that with last year's extremely high usage disparity between Khalil Shakir (73.1 percent slot route rate) and Keon Coleman (88.6 percent rate out wide, far and away the highest of any rookie wideout that ran more than 100 routes in 2024), and you have a recipe for a move toward usage parity - possibly a significant one. We probably won't get much in the way of actionable intel on this from Buffalo's upcoming stint on HBO's Hard Knocks, but I'll settle for a viral Keon Coleman soundbite or three.
• The Search for Ben Johnson's Next Amon-Ra is underway, and while all fan theories are welcome the smart money looks to be on some combination of Rome Odunze (36.6 percent slot rate under OC Thomas Brown) and Luther Burden (over 80 percent slot rate in college; drafted 39th overall). Either guy could be fantasy gold, but the guy who is going to work out of the slot at the higher clip would be information of value right up there with orange juice futures.
• There will be a lot of cases being made for who inherits the vaunted Rashee Rice Role during whatever suspension that is likely coming his way in the next few weeks. But nobody really did when Rice was lost to friendly fire last September; Xavier Worthy's slot route rate barely quivered (31.4 percent across his first three NFL games; 37 percent without Rice). And this makes sense when you realize that Rice's wide vs. slot route rate was nearly even when he went down for the year (48.2 wide, 51.8 slot). I think we're looking at this from the wrong end: Probably whatever usage that Worthy, Hollywood Brown and intriguing rookie Jalen Royals show us during a Rashee Rice suspension will be an aggregate mirage, and will be largely displaced upon Rice's return to the fold.

—Luke Wilson