Heading into the 2025 MLB season, these eight pitchers could help lead fantasy managers to the top of the strikeout category in 5x5 rotisserie-scoring leagues.
It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates for 2025 or even drafting now.
For nearly a decade, I contributed of series of offseason features at Rotoworld breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5x5 roto categories. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since the hot stove hasn’t heated up much yet, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Mixed League Players
Matthew Boyd, SP, Cubs
A 10-year MLB player, Boyd’s game is well-established. The lefty has a poor 4.85 ERA for his career, due in large part to his inability to keep the ball in the park. That fact didn’t stop the Cubs from giving Boyd a two-year, $29 million contract early this offseason, however. The team is obviously enticed by what Boyd can do, as a pitcher who has just under one strikeout per inning for his career and most recently posted a 2.72 ERA in eight regular season starts with the Guardians plus three strong playoff starts.
Boyd’s brief time healthy in 2024 featured an uptick in changeups (26%) and a 35%-plus whiff rate with both his changeup and slider. Those pitches helped him produce an impressive 28% strikeout rate and 10.4 K/9 in 39.2 regular season innings, and he was also able to keep the ball down. As always, the big question for Boyd is volume, as he last reached 100 innings in 2019 with the Tigers, and has thrown a total of 263 innings over the last five years. Now recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2023, he will have to show better health to make good on the contract, but it won’t much for him to exceed his early ADP value near 500.
Kris Bubic, P, Royals
Few pitchers in baseball have more intrigue than Bubic heading into Spring Training. The left-hander produced a 4.89 ERA over his first three MLB seasons, but started to show a new form early in 2023 before tearing his elbow ligament and undergoing Tommy John surgery. His early pitch repertoire in 2023 featured a new slider and a strikeout per inning over three starts.
Returning in the Royals pen last season, Bubic continued to lean on the new breaking pitch, throwing it 35% of the time. Although he primarily used his fastball and changeup as his put-away pitches, the slider was effective. With an increase in velocity as a reliever, Bubic was truly dominant with an 11.6 K/9 and 7.80 K/BB ratio over 30.1 innings. We’d expect the fastball velocity to decline to his career norm in the rotation, but the results of the last two seasons make Bubic a very interesting draft option as the Royals plan to move him back to the starting rotation. A career 11.3 K/9 in the minors adds more fuel for fantasy managers seeking strikeouts.
David Festa, SP, Twins
The Twins have had no problem producing control pitchers over the years, but Festa shows more upside. The former 13th rounder was one of the game’s best pitching prospects when he was promoted by the team last season, and continued to show excellent command with a 3.35 K/BB ratio along with a 10.8 K/9. Festa has top of the rotation stuff with a mid-90’s fastball and devastating slider that he threw 32% of the time last season, though his changeup and control remain a work in progress.
The control and high flyball rate sidetracked Festa in his rookie season, but he’s making progress. Festa’s 3.2 BB/9 in 64.1 innings was better than his career minor league rate of 3.6. He’s struck out opposing batters at an impressive clip, with an 11.2 K/9 in the minors that was nearly maintained with the Twins last season. The concern for young pitchers is innings, though Festa will turn 25 in March and threw 124.2 total innings last season. He certainly has 150-plus strikeout upside in 2025 if he stays healthy, and his price leaves room for profit with a 383 ADP.
Kumar Rocker, SP, Rangers
Rocker is well-known at multiple levels as a former ace at Vanderbilt who was twice drafted in the first round. He ultimately ended up signing with Texas in 2022 after going third overall in the draft, but his ascent hasn’t been smooth due to injuries. Now back from Tommy John surgery, Rocker was tremendous last season with a 1.96 ERA and 13.5 K/9 in 10 minor league appearances followed by a 3.86 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in three MLB starts.
Kumar is an intimidating presence as a bulky 6-foot-5 right-hander with electric stuff. His fastball hits the high-90’s, and he has a wipeout slider that he throws nearly 40% of the time. The result has been some jaw-dropping strikeout numbers as a college pitcher and pro, including a 12.2 K/9 at Vandy and 13.5 K/9 in 64.2 innings in the minors. There aren’t many questions about Rocker’s ability, though his durability is a concern having thrown 100 innings only once since he entered college in 2019. There’s obvious risk with a history of arm injuries, but Rocker has a chance to crack the Opening Day rotation and be a great contributor on a per-start basis with an ADP near 340.
Single League Players
Hayden Birdsong, SP, Giants
We got a good dose of Birdsong in his rookie season with the Giants, making 16 starts in the majors with a 4.75 ERA, and 11.0 K/9. The 23-year-old right-hander has a live arm, averaging 96 mph on his fastball with a slider, curveball, and changeup that he threw almost equally. All three offspeed pitches are plus, provoking a whiff rate above 30% overall, and the slider has the potential to be real out-pitch with an astronomical 49% whiff rate.
The problem for Birdsong, like many young pitchers, is control. He had a terrible 5.4 BB/9 in MLB last season, and his 3.9 BB/9 in the minors for his career was predictive of his major league struggles. Fortunately, his minor league K/9 of 13.1 also shows immense upside if he can stick it out in the rotation. Birdsong’s erratic control could push him to the bullpen or back to Triple-A, but youth is on Birdsong’s side if he’s able to stay healthy. The preseason price is likely to be fluid as the Giants make more moves, but an ADP near 530 currently makes him a very viable sleeper option.
Bubba Chandler, SP, Pirates
The Pirates are becoming a factory for pitching, with the emergence of Paul Skenes and Jared Jones last season, and several top prospects on the way. Among the team’s pitching prospects, Chandler likely has the highest ceiling. He’s produced a career 11.1 K/9 over three minor league seasons with a high-90’s fastball and excellent slider. The major concern for the former third-round pick is control, but he also made strides in that area last season with a 3.1 BB/9 between Double- and Triple-A.
The NFBC high stakes market has already taken notice of Chandler, whose ADP near 370 makes him one of the most expensive minor league players on the board. Like most minor leaguers, his price should change as the team makes more moves and conveys their intentions for Chandler in 2025. Either way, he’s a strong NL-only stash who could pay off with strikeouts and more.
Quinn Mathews, SP, Cardinals
The Cardinals head into a rare rebuilding year in 2025, so the microscope will be on their prospects. No prospect in the farm system currently has more upside than Mathews. The 2023 fourth-round pick out of Stanford opened eyes last season by gaining velocity and reaching 200 strikeouts while pitching between four levels in the St. Louis system. While he’d also shown great command in college, Mathews took his game to the next level with a fastball from the left side that consistently reached the mid-90’s along with a plus changeup and slider.
For all the success Mathews had last season with a 2.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, he did struggle in four starts at Triple-A Memphis. Add in the fact that the Cardinals aren’t exactly all-in for 2025, and it’s reasonable to assume Mathews will begin the year at Memphis. That fact should cause us to keep expectations for next season in check, but Mathews is already showing potential to pile up innings (143.1 last season) and strikeouts.
Tylor Megill, P, Mets
Megill probably doesn’t need much of an introduction. He’s contributed to the Mets consistently since 2021, throwing a total of 341.1 innings with the team in a variety of roles. The right-hander was never more effective than last season, with a 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9 over 78 innings.
The biggest reason for intrigue going forward is Megill’s evolving and improving repertoire. His fastball average was up near 96 mph, and he also threw more cutters, sinkers, and splitters at the expense of his slider and changeup. Those pitches were effective to varying degrees, but they did give him more to work with. He flashed five different pitches with at least a 27% whiff rate and pitched his best ball down the stretch with a 2.32 ERA and 36/10 K/BB in 31 innings over his final six starts. His minor league track record also shows an elite strikeout pitcher, with a career 11.3 K/9. Durability has long been an issue for Megill, so he shouldn’t be counted on, but his ADP near 550 shows real potential for profit.
--Seth Trachtman