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Analysis

5x5 Sleepers: Home Runs

Fantasy managers still dig the long ball, and these 8 hitters are capable of boosting them in the category.

As we move into 2025, these eight hitters could have an opportunity for big power numbers for fantasy managers in 5x5 rotisserie-scoring leagues.

Heading into the 2025 MLB season, these eight pitchers could help lead fantasy managers to the top of the strikeout category in 5x5 rotisserie-scoring leagues.

It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates for 2025 or even drafting now.

For nearly a decade, I contributed of series of offseason features at Rotoworld breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5x5 roto categories. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since the hot stove hasn’t heated up much yet, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.

Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.

Mixed League Players

Hunter Goodman, C/OF, Rockies

Hello, Goodman. One of Colorado’s top power prospects, Goodman has moved up the farm system relatively fast after being drafted in the fourth round in 2021 out of Memphis. He was a notable power hitter in college, hitting 21 home runs in 2021, and that momentum continued as a pro, hitting 36 homers in his first season in the farm system in 2022 and 35 home runs in a 2023 season that included his MLB debut. Last season Goodman spent more time in Colorado than the minors, appearing in 70 games and hitting 13 home runs with a .417 SLG.

There’s no questioning the power potential nor the intent when Goodman is at the plate. There is reason to question is path to playing time, however. He saw playing time at four different positions in the majors last season, including 23 games at catcher that make him eligible at the position in most leagues, but he didn’t grade particularly well at any position. Goodman also hasn’t shown much patience at the plate, with an awful 3.6% BB% last season and a K% that has hovered around 30% in the majors. Add in manager Bud Black’s hesitancy to play some young players over the years, and 400-plus plate appearances could be a chore for Goodman in 2025. Still, the upside in Colorado is obviously huge, and he's certainly draftable at an ADP of 335 in NFBC leagues as a second catcher.

Heston Kjerstad, OF, Orioles

Kjerstad was a sleeper last year, and his status doesn’t really change heading into 2025 after seeing only 39 games in the majors in 2024. The second overall pick in the 2020 draft, Kjerstad has ascended well but hasn’t received the same hype as other top hitters in the deep Orioles farm system. His triple slash of .311/.387/.524 as a minor leaguer is impressive, and most of that playing time has taken place at Triple-A Norfolk. Unfortunately, Kjerstad struggled to find playing time with the O’s last season, and suffered a concussion just as it looked like he would get an extended look in the second half.

Kjerstad appears ripe for an opportunity at age 26, but sometimes opportunities are hard to come by on teams with World Series aspirations. Baltimore already made his path to playing time more difficult by signing Tyler O’Neill, though as things stand now he has a chance to break camp as the team’s fourth outfielder with a chance for at-bats at DH, as well. There’s high batting average and power upside after he hit .303-16-61 in only 280 plate appearances between three minor league levels last season, and the potent lineup would also help his counting stats. Coincidentally, Kjerstad’s ADP lines up just behind Goodman at 342.

Kyle Manzardo, UT, Guardians

Blocked by Josh Naylor at first base in Cleveland, Manzardo bided his time at Triple-A last season after he was acquired from Tampa Bay for Aaron Civale in 2023. He got a run of playing time in May and again in September, when he was able to make the most of his chance. Manzardo hit .270-5-8 in 69 plate appearances during the final month, and his momentum continued into the postseason when he hit .316-1-2 in 19 plate appearances. That capped off a strong year at Triple-A Columbus in which Manzardo hit .267/.398/.548 with 20 home runs in 364 plate appearances.

Manzardo has shown notable power and plate patience throughout his pro career, resulting in a .388 OBP and .544 SLG in the minors. His stroke and extreme launch angle produced an equally extreme 40% flyball rate during the regular season, providing reason to think Manzardo has 30 home runs in his bat. One big issue keeping his price down in fantasy drafts this winter is his lack of position eligibility after playing DH for most of his time in the majors last season, but he’d step in at first base if the Guardians move Naylor. Either way, his 519 ADP won’t break the bank and shows plenty of room for profit.

Matt Wallner, OF, Twins

Wallner’s ability and power is well-documented at this point. The big Twins outfielder had a breakout showing in 2023 with 14 home runs in 254 plate appearances, but he was demoted to Triple-A early last season after a slow start. After finally finding his stroke, Wallner made MLB pitching pay during the second half of the season hitting .272-10-29 in only 202 plate appearances. The former first-round pick’s minor league track record shows big upside, as well, with a career .517 SLG and 19 homers in only 297 plate appearances at Triple-A St. Paul last year.

There are a couple big concerns when drafting Wallner. His awful strikeout rate (36.4% in 2024) makes him prone to slumps, as we saw last year before he was demoted. That high strikeout rate also hurts his batting average, though that issue is somewhat nullified by his benching vs. lefties. Being used as a platoon player, as he was last season, also caps Wallner’s playing time. Still, the 27-year-old shows impressive power capable of 30 home runs over 500 plate appearances if he can avoid the extreme slumps we’ve seen of him early in his career. There aren’t many power bats with higher upside at an ADP of 291.

Single League Players

Adrian Del Castillo, C, Diamondbacks

Del Castillo was a revelation for the Diamondbacks last season when they desperately needed him, with starting catcher Gabriel Moreno sidelined. He hit .313-4-19 in 87 plate appearances and also had a breakout year at hitter-friendly Triple-A Reno, hitting .312-26-75 in 474 plate appearances. It was quite a jump for a player whose bat and defense were questioned prior to last season.

The defensive question marks remain, which explain why he has an ADP of 589. Simply put, Del Castillo has nowhere to play unless Arizona moves him to first base or DH. Moreno is a Gold Glove defender behind the plate and entrenched at the position, while Del Castillo graded poorly in his limited MLB time at catcher. There’s also some reason for skepticism regarding such a sudden breakout, as Del Castillo’s previous best season was .263-14-68 in 100 games between Double- and Triple-A in 2023, and he had mixed results as a hitter in college. Still, Del Castillo is an interesting flier in NL-only leagues at the very least and possibly more interesting depending how the offseason shakes out.

Andres Chaparro, 1B, Nationals

Often players just need an opportunity to show what they can do, and Chaparro falls into that category. The 25-year-old had a good minor league track record with the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Nats prior to getting promoted last season, but he never got his chance. After he was acquired by Washington at the trade deadline for Dylan Floro, Washington saw what Chaparro could do.

The results in the majors were mixed. Chaparro had an .814 OPS in August, but his overall numbers took a nosedive during the last month. Still, he showed some pop with four home runs in 33 games after hitting .328-23-85 in 457 plate appearances at Triple-A. Chaparro shows a decent contact rate (18.2% last season), and a willingness to draw a walk. As for his path to playing time, Washington hasn’t done anything to block him yet. After hitting 20-plus home runs in three straight seasons, he has upside in NL-only leagues.

Rece Hinds, OF, Reds

Fantasy fiends are familiar with Hinds after his huge arrival in Cincinnati last season. Hinds arrived with a bang, hitting five home runs over his first six games in July before the fun stopped. He was demoted in late July, and barely saw playing time despite a long MLB stint over the final month-plus. That ended an interesting season in which Hinds hit only .208-14-47 with 20 steals in 99 games at Triple-A Louisville.

Hinds is raw tools galore, to put it mildly. He has tape measure power and 92nd percentile speed. The former second-round pick was also a 20/20 man at Double-A Chattanooga in 2023, but his plate discipline is very lacking. Hinds had 37/160 BB/K in only 422 plate appearances at Triple-A last season, and could most certainly use more seasoning if that doesn’t turn a corner in Spring Training. Many players with his profile don’t pan out in the majors against better pitching, but the prospect of Hinds’ raw power in a small ballpark like Cincinnati is too good to overlook. He should at least be considered a flier in NL-only leagues.

Johnathan Rodriguez, OF, Guardians

Cleveland has made a nice living producing underappreciated, powerful corner outfielders in recent years. Franmil Reyes and Jhonkensy Noel come to mind as examples, and Rodriguez could be next. The former third-round pick has been in the farm system since 2017, and he’s now 25. Rodriguez has been a notable offensive performer in three straight years, with 26 home runs in 107 games in 2022, 29 home runs in 135 games in 2023, and 29 home runs in 131 games including the majors last season.

Rodriguez also made significant progress last season, cutting down on his strikeout rate in the minors with a 25% K% at Triple-A Columbus. That progress helped him hit .301 after hitting .286 between Double- and Triple-A the previous season. Like the aforementioned Reyes and Noel, Rodriguez is extremely limited defensively, a fact that makes playing time tougher to come by than it would be otherwise for a hitting prospect with his pedigree. Still, the opportunity looks there for the taking with Will Brennan penciled in as the right fielder and the unproven Kyle Manzardo at DH.

--Seth Trachtman

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