PITTSBURGH (vs. Cin.): Having to contend with a red-hot offense, the Steelers won’t necessarily win this game, but it can safely be assumed they’ll be putting up better
This snippet was first published on January 1.
Defensively, the Bengals have been struggling all year. They rank in the bottom 5 in both yards and points allowed. When these teams met in Week 12, Pittsburgh won 44-38, with 520 net yards. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 48 touchdowns, which averages to 3 per week (Pittsburgh got 4 in the earlier meeting, with an additional touchdown on a fumble return). With the Ravens playing earlier on Saturday, the Steelers likely will be locked in as a wild card, but Mike Tomlin suggests he’d like to see offense build some momentum after struggling in three straight losses. “I haven’t pondered that at all, to be quite honest with you,” Tomlin said on Monday. “That might be a thought for later in the week. But as I mentioned, I think it’s significant how we go into this tournament. So, I doubt that I’ll be in that mentality that you mentioned.”
Russell Wilson has taken his lumps of late, averaging only 177 passing yards in his last four games, with 5 TDs. But here’s a week where he looks far more likely to finish with above-average stats. Cincinnati has been struggling all along against the pass, but particularly recently. The Bengals have allowed an average of 257 passing yards in their last 10 games, with 19 TD passes. With Cincinnati having a lesser pass rush and modest defensive backs, this is an opponent Wilson will be comfortable against. He threw for 414 yards against them a month ago (along with 3 TDs), his highest total in 7 years. Not that Wilson is a certainty to be throwing it all over the yard, but he’ll be taking some deep shots, and this looks like a week where some of those balls will hit. For the season, he’s averaging 233 passing yards, with 15 TDs in 10 games; he should clock in above that rate in this game. While Wilson can’t run like he did in the past, he’s averaging 13 rushing yards, with 2 TDs on sneaks.
We’re ranking Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren a lot higher than usual. Cincinnati has a below-average run defense, and Pittsburgh will come in with some confidence that it can have some success against. Harris has put up good numbers in four straight games against Cincinnati, running for 90, 99, 78 and 75 yards, with at least a touchdown in every game. He logged 16 carries in the meeting a month ago, with another 54 yards picked up on 6 catches. This is a one-two punch backfield. In each of the last four games, Warren has been on the field for more plays (with 10 more receptions, he’s averaged 24 more combined yards in those four games). But those stats were influenced by the Steelers playing three straight against good opponents (Eagles, Ravens, KC); they tend to use Warren more when they fall behind, using more spread formations. That probably won’t be the case this week. Harris had 15 more touches than Warren in the earlier meeting – looks like his kind of game.
With Cincinnati’s defensive problems, this is a week to slot the pass catchers higher than usual. George Pickens is their best downfield option, and this is a week where the probability of him hitting on something downfield is greatly enhanced. He caught 3 passes for 74 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting; when these teams met in this building late last year, Pickens went for 195 yards, with a pair of long touchdowns. Calvin Austin also has the speed to get deep; since the quarterback change, both Austin and Pickens have caught 3 TDs, and Austin has also scored on a punt return. But Austin doesn’t see the ball all that much; in 10 games with Wilson, Austin averages 2.6 catches for 38 yards.
The other wide receivers are of the peashooter variety – Van Jefferson, Mike Williams and even Scotty Miller and Skowronek have seen decent snaps at times. Not considerations.
Pat Freiermuth looks like a candidate to be one of the top few tight ends. He’s a trusted part of the passing game, while Cincinnati has allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends (2nd-most in the league). In the earlier meeting, Freiermuth put up his best numbers of the season – 6 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. With Russell Wilson, Freiermuth is averaging 3.5 catches for 37 yards, with 4 TDs in 10 games.
Chris Boswell has been a below-average scorer recently, but that can be attributed to the Steelers falling behind and losing against good teams – Eagles, Ravens, KC. Boswell has averaged only 5.7 points in the team’s six losses; he’s averaged 11.9 points in their 10 wins. This one looks about as likely to be a win as a loss, putting Boswell back in play as an elite kicking prospect.
The Steelers Defense is facing a hot quarterback, but one who’s operating behind a lesser offensive line. Joe Burrow has taken 29 sacks in his last 10 games, and the Bengals are only average in terms of turnovers. The Steelers got Burrow for 4 sacks, an interception and 2 fumbles in the earlier meeting, including one that was returned for a touchdown. Pittsburgh has scored defensive touchdowns in two of its last three games against Burrow.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 18 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst Package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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