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RAMS: Minnesota ranks 5th in scoring defense. Seven times this year, it held opponents to 0-1 touchdowns. But it’s an approach that tends to work best against overmatched opponents – Giants, Jaguars, Titans, Bears. Better and more seasoned offenses can tend to work through the confusion, getting things dialed in. That was the case for the Rams in the earlier meeting, with them scoring 4 touchdowns. The Lions scored 4 TDs in both of their Minnesota games, and the Packers scored 4 and 3 touchdowns. The Seahawks scored 3 TDs. So let’s not be too quick to bail on Los Angeles, who went 8-2 in the 10 games it had all its key players. But it’s worrying that the Rams on offense underperformed in each of their final three meaningful games, scoring only 12, 19 and 13 points against the 49ers, Jets and Cardinals.
Matthew Stafford is in the midst of a worrying slump. Three weeks in a row he’s passed for fewer than 190 yards, and he averaged fewer than 6 yards per attempt in all of those games. Just one touchdown in those 12 quarters, and he’s missing more throws than usual. He’ll be 37 in a month, and maybe he’s just nearing the end of the road. For fantasy purposes, also factor in that he’s not a factor as a runner – he’s the least mobile of the playoff quarterbacks. That works against him. But before we dismiss Stafford entirely, consider how Minnesota plays defensively. They tend to crowd the line of scrimmage, forcing opponents to pass. Only four defenses allowed more passing yards in the regular season, and the Vikings allowed twice as many touchdowns on passes (24) rather than runs (12). The Rams got ‘em pretty good in the earlier meeting, with Stafford passing for 279 yards and 4 TDs. Stafford and Sean McVay have seen them before, and no doubt they’ll be coming in with some areas to exploit. That makes something like 260 yards and a couple of touchdowns look realistic.
It’s a lesser situation for Kyren Williams, with the Vikings ranking No. 2 in run defense. Williams averages 81 rushing and 11 receiving yards, with 16 touchdowns in 16 games. He’ll likely come in lower here. But it’s tough to actually drop him behind too many other backs. Jahmyr Gibbs, after all, just lit up this defense on Sunday night. The Vikings, in fact, have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in their last two games, almost as many as their other 15 combined. And Minnesota allowed over 150 rushing yards in three of its last six, with cracks perhaps showing up. Williams played about his best game of the season in the earlier meeting, punching out 97 yards on 23 carries. He’s about all they use at the position (with Blake Corum breaking his arm in Week 18, Ronnie Rivers will be the backup), and the general lean is to just stick with him.
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp tend to get packaged as a one-two punch, but this is Nacua’s show now. Kupp was one of the league’s best receivers a few years ago, but age and injuries have added up, turning him into more of a serviceable possession receiver. Nacua now is that alpha receiver that everything is built around. They’ve played nine full games together, and Nacua in those nine has averaged 8.2 catches for 105 yards, while Kupp has averaged 4.2 catches for 51 yards. He’s been about half as productive. Kupp has a 5-3 edge in touchdown catches in those games, which we’ll attribute to some combination of chance and his craftiness in the red zone. But we’re slotting Nacua higher. Makes sense to grade them both higher than usual, with the Vikings ranking 2nd against the run but just 28th against the pass. Nacua caught 7 passes for 106 yards in the earlier meeting, while Kupp caught 5 for 51 with a touchdown.
Demarcus Robinson is a nominal third receiver, but with the oddity of tending to come up big around the end zone. In those same nine games (with the two big receivers available) Robinson has caught only 9 passes, but with 4 TDs (1 more than Nacua and 1 less than Kupp). But Robinson didn’t even catch a pass in the last four of those games. The Rams have another receiver, Tutu Atwell, who’s caught 13 passes in those nine games (albeit with no touchdowns).
The Rams have been using various bodies at tight end, with Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and Hunter Long all logging snaps counts of 20-40 percent in recent weeks. But Higbee is probably their preferred guy and might be nudging back towards relevance as he works his way back from a torn ACL. He missed the first 14 games of the season. He caught a touchdown against the Jets (Stafford’s only score of his last three games), 2 balls against Arizona, and they used the preseason-type finale to pump him 5 more passes. Higbee averaged 3.1 catches for 33 yards a year ago, putting him in the same neighborhood as some of the other modest tight ends playing this week.
It wouldn’t be all that surprising if Joshua Karty were the highest-scoring kicker of the weekend. The Rams are in a coin-flip type game, and there will be no weather issues affecting performance. Nonetheless, we’re grading him as one of the lesser options of the week. He’s had some accuracy issues, with the Rams the only one of the 14 playoff teams that’s converted under 88 percent of its kicks. And he hasn’t been productive, averaging only 7 points per week. Even in the 10 games with all of the key offensive players in place – Stafford, Nacua, Kupp, Kyren – he’s averaged 7 points. He’s facing a defense that’s allowed only 100 kicking points all year (5.9 per week). The Rams won the earlier meeting, but Karty scored only 4 points in that one (making all 4 of his PATs).
The Rams Defense looks like a lesser choice. In comparison to the other 11 teams that will take the field this week, LA in the regular season ranked last in sacks and below-average in interceptions and fumbles. It’s facing a quarterback who’ll at times make ill-advised throws, but Sam Darnold has gotten better as the season has progressed. He turned the ball over 13 times in his first nine starts, but he’s lost just 2 interceptions and 1 fumble in his last eight games. While Jordan Whittington had a pair of kickoff returns over 40 yards late in the year, the special teams are below average.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 19 "Wild Card Edition" of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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