Every Saturday morning, I'll take a quick look at all the week's games, offering my own brief take on what I think will happen, as well as touching on significant injury news since our Weekly came out. I'll check in over the course of the day to answer questions, too.
The official rankings are the ones in the Weekly. Those take precedence. But sometimes players are very close, and in those cases I'm glad to offer opinions on how I'd approach those situations. Sometimes I like certain players more or less than Ian, and sometimes I have different risk tolerance with injuries etc.
Chargers at Texans: Chargers are slight favorites and I expect them to win, but a Houston win wouldn't be surprising. Neither team is particularly exciting on offense, and Houston had a credible defense. Could be a lower-scoring affair that somebody wins on a late field goal. But Houston did allow 31 touchdown passes, so reasonable to have some faith in Justin Herbert, moreso than J.K. Dobbins going against Houston's 11th-ranked run defense anyway. For the Texans, tough matchup for Joe Mixon and I tend to think the Chargers will focus on him, but Mixon and Nico Collins are big-time players and maybe they can make things interesting. Or as interesting as the largely disregarded early game on Saturday can be, and with the winner likely headed for a loss at Kansas City next week. I'm somewhat interested in the kickers and defenses from this game, particularly on the Chargers side of things.
Steelers at Ravens: Gotta say, it's hard to get too excited about this game. We see it twice a year in the regular season. Four times in the postseason this century, though the last was in 2015. But the game are generally low-scoring and painful to watch, with lots of defensive stops and punts and whatnot. Baltimore has the much better, more dynamic offense right now, but the Steelers still have a sound defense and they'll probably slow things down to a slog. That's the concern for Ravens fans, I think: that Pittsburgh brings Baltimore's offense down to its level, reducing the wide, wide gap in current play and potential between MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and washed-up Russell Wilson. If I'm the Ravens, I'm feeding Derrick Henry over and over again. Bottom line is there's just about nothing Pittsburgh's offense should be able to do in this game: Najee and Warren shouldn't have much success on the ground, Wilson shouldn't have much time to find George Pickens or his other various receivers. Pat Freiermuth and Mark Andrews, those are the receivers I'm most interested in in this game. And Baltimore's defense, and Tucker, and I suppose Boswell (but Pittsburgh will need to be moving into field goal range to make that happen, and I don't think they'll be doing a lot of it. Baltimore turning the ball over, that's the only way this is much of a game.
Broncos at Bills: All three AFC games played before any of the three NFC games. What the hell, NFL? If the Broncos were the 5th seed, I'd feel pretty good about them winning a game this postseason. But they wouldn't look good in Baltimore (we've seen that this season), and it will be tough for them to get the upset here. Not impossible; I'm a little surprised the point spread is so high (8.5). There's some general national lack of respect for the Broncos, maybe because of the narrative that Kansas City let them win in Week 18 to keep the Bengals out. People did see Denver losing in overtime at Cincinnati and by one score at the Chargers the previous two weeks, right? And losing in Kansas City on a blocked field goal when KC was trying to win and stuff? Presumably they're also aware that playoff teams who've clinched seeding rest starters in the final week of the season all the time, which is why most fantasy leagues don't use the week. Whatever. I think Bo Nix-Courtland Sutton-Marvin Mims will score some points, but in general I think Josh Allen will be passing and running his way to a higher score. An upset wouldn't shock me, but I don't think Buffalo will take things lightly and Allen's an MVP favorite for a reason. Fantasy-wise, Allen and to a lesser extent James Cook (for receiving) are the players I'm interested in for the Bills...no desire to guess which receivers will do most.
Packers at Eagles: I've seen very little discussion of an upset in this game, which seems like a mistake. Green Bay has a good defense. Jalen Hurts has been sidelined for more than three weeks. The Packers made a little playoff run a year ago, while Nick Siranni's team was busy turning in one of the all-time December/January no-shows. Saquon Barkley is probably the offensive player of the year, but Josh Jacobs was also pretty good. I'm not saying Green Bay is going to win, just making the case. Eagles fans and the Eagles themselves should not be looking past this one. In general I'm in on all key Eagles, but a 23-20 type of game seems likeliest to me. If I were betting, I'd take the 5.5 the Packers are getting. Not particularly interested in Jordan Love or any of the myriad receivers who might catch some balls, but give me Jacobs for his all-around potential.
Commanders at Bucs: I guess the league put this game and the next NFC game in primetime because they're the two games where offenses are better than defenses and they definitely could go either way. Casual fans want scoring and stuff, I get it. Both teams healthy, with Cade Otton set to return (but hadn't done much once Mike Evans had returned). I think the Bucs win, but Jayden Daniels running for 100 yards and throwing for good numbers against a soft Bucs pass defense is in the realm of possibilities. Winner of this game will need to go win at Detroit or Philly, neither of which seems likely at this point. But I like both kickers, quarterbacks, receivers and Bucky Irving.
Vikings versus Rams in Arizona: Game moved from Los Angeles due to the tragedies ongoing there. I've gone back and forth on the Vikings, viewing them as a team of destiny at one point to now thinking they're probably going to lose their first playoff game. I know they won 14 games during the season, but one of the losses was at Los Angeles (30-20 in Week 8). It's a good matchup for the Rams in the sense that they prefer to pass the ball and the Vikings are pretty weak defending it. I'm using Puka and Jefferson in a start players only once league, since both should be very good and one is definitely getting checked out. I don't love either ground game, yards or touchdowns. Sticking these teams on Monday night means the winner will definitely be playing next Sunday rather than Saturday in what's usually the best playoff weekend. Anyway, edge to Rams, but not a heavy favorite.
Enjoy the games.